3/36-28 (CD): Derby Future Pool 3

[Kasept]

Kentucky Derby Future Pool 3

No. Horse
Pool 1 odds
Pool 2 odds
Pool 3 M/L

1 Aikenite
54-1
57-1
50-1

2 Alphie's Bet
3-2(f)
3-1(f)
15-1

3 Awesome Act
3-2(f)
3-1(f)
15-1

4 Caracortado
3-2(f)
19-1
20-1

5 Connemara
3-2(f)
46-1
20-1

6 Conveyance
33-1
28-1
20-1

7 Discreetly Mine
3-2(f)
37-1
20-1

8 Dublin
20-1
10-1
15-1

9 Eskendereya
22-1
5-1
5-1

10 Homeboykris
3-2(f)
3-1(f)
50-1

11 Ice Box
3-2(f)
3-1(f)
12-1

12 Interactif
3-2(f)
3-1(f)
20-1

13 Jackson Bend
27-1
47-1
30-1

14 Lookin At Lucky
8-1
9-1
6-1

15 Make Music for Me
105-1
3-1(f)
30-1

16 Noble's Promise
36-1
26-1
12-1

17 Odysseus
3-2(f)
25-1
20-1

18 Pleasant Prince
3-2(f)
3-1(f)
20-1

19 Rule
24-1
20-1
20-1

20 Schoolyard Dreams
3-2(f)
3-1(f)
30-1

21 Sidney's Candy
3-2(f)
33-1
15-1

22 Super Saver
20-1
24-1
20-1

23 Tempted to Tapit
3-2(f)
63-1
50-1

24 Field (all others)
3-2
3-1
8-1

[cakes44]

Predictions on how many of the 23 don't make it to the starting gate for the Derby? Looks like a bunch to me.

[justindew]

At the risk of eating my words down the road...

...can't they come up with a better option than Aikenite?

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by justindew

At the risk of eating my words down the road...

...can't they come up with a better option than Aikenite?

I think I said the same thing when Mine That Bird was actually entered last year.

[ninetoone]

Awesome Act @ 15-1 seems OK...

[cakes44]

I don't see any as appealing whatsoever from a betting perspective in this group. However, I'm also banking on the Mine That Bird effect with so many people trying to hit a longshot because a 50-1 winning last year will be fresh in their minds. The MTB story will be the one that people who rarely bet all year will be hearing in the days leading up to the Derby anyways, which will help the odds on the horses who have a better shot.

[pweizer]

Did I miss the race that Homeboykris ran that merits his inclusion here when he was not in pool one or two? I am baffled by that one.

Paul

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by pweizer

Did I miss the race that Homeboykris ran that merits his inclusion here when he was not in pool one or two? I am baffled by that one.

Paul

I agree...I guess they think people would love to bet a future on a horse who's only race in 2010 was a 2nd place finish in an Allowance race.

I can't find any horse on here whose odds may be significantly lower on Derby day (if they make it) other than the 2 favorites, and that's pointless to bet anyway.

[Dunbar]

The average odds for "All Others" in Pool 3 since 2000 is 14.4-1. The lowest it's ever closed was 6.7-1 in 2004. Right now it's 3-1.

Granted, they are holding Pool 3 a week earlier than usual, and normally we'd have the result of the Wood to go on. But that's still a pretty large deviation from the average. It'll probably climb some before the close tomorrow.

--Dunbar

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by pweizer

Did I miss the race that Homeboykris ran that merits his inclusion here when he was not in pool one or two? I am baffled by that one.

Paul

I agreed with you at first impression ... but actually, I don't blame them for including him.

But you know he's at least scheduled to make his next start in the Ky Derby .. and the crop is so laughably bad outside of maybe 7 or 8 horses.

About the only thing Mine That Bird had going for him last year was that he earned enough Graded Earnings to get into the thing when he won some abysmal 2yo stake in Canada. They wanted to take him back and use the Kentucky Derby as a prep for the Belmont.... an idea so crazy that it truly deserved a blanket of roses.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by ninetoone

Awesome Act @ 15-1 seems OK...

I like him a lot, but would never touch him at 15-1. Think about it... I doubt he can beat Eskendereya next week, even if he runs a good second, what could his odds possibly be Derby Day? I would expect Dublin, Lookin at Lucky, Ice Box and Eskendereya to all be lower then him.... Im just assuming you can get 15-1 or 20-1 on derby day... Now if you think he's going to win next weekend you should crush the 15-1, because if he wins next weekend I think hes 6-1 or less in the Derby.

[Kasept]

Derby Future Wager (Live odds)

POOL (As of 8am Sunday): $120k

1 Aikenite Todd Pletcher 50 47
2 Alphie's Bet Alexis Barba 15 43
3 Awesome Act Jeremy Noseda 15 13
4 Caracortado Michael Machowsky 20 47
5 Connemara Todd Pletcher 20 68
6 Conveyance Bob Baffert 20 22
7 Discreetly Mine Todd Pletcher 20 37
8 Dublin D. Lukas 15 16
9 Eskendereya Todd Pletcher 5 6
10 Homeboykris Richard Dutrow, Jr. 50 60
11 Ice Box Nicholas Zito 12 18
12 Interactif Todd Pletcher 20 29
13 Jackson Bend Nicholas Zito 30 48
14 Lookin At Lucky Bob Baffert 6 5
15 Make Music for Me Alexis Barba 30 37
16 Noble's Promise Kenneth McPeek 12 25
17 Odysseus Thomas Albertrani 20 16
18 Pleasant Prince Wesley Ward 20 37
19 Rule Todd Pletcher 20 27
20 Schoolyard Dreams Derek Ryan 30 51
21 Sidney's Candy John Sadler 15 25
22 Super Saver Todd Pletcher 20 50
23 Tempted to Tapit Steve Klesaris 50 54
24 All Other Three Ye 8 3

[justindew]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Derby Future Wager (Live odds)

POOL (As of 8am Sunday): $120k

1 Aikenite Todd Pletcher 50 47
2 Alphie's Bet Alexis Barba 15 43
3 Awesome Act Jeremy Noseda 15 13
4 Caracortado Michael Machowsky 20 47
5 Connemara Todd Pletcher 20 68
6 Conveyance Bob Baffert 20 22
7 Discreetly Mine Todd Pletcher 20 37
8 Dublin D. Lukas 15 16
9 Eskendereya Todd Pletcher 5 6
10 Homeboykris Richard Dutrow, Jr. 50 60
11 Ice Box Nicholas Zito 12 18
12 Interactif Todd Pletcher 20 29
13 Jackson Bend Nicholas Zito 30 48
14 Lookin At Lucky Bob Baffert 6 5
15 Make Music for Me Alexis Barba 30 37
16 Noble's Promise Kenneth McPeek 12 25
17 Odysseus Thomas Albertrani 20 16
18 Pleasant Prince Wesley Ward 20 37
19 Rule Todd Pletcher 20 27
20 Schoolyard Dreams Derek Ryan 30 51
21 Sidney's Candy John Sadler 15 25
22 Super Saver Todd Pletcher 20 50
23 Tempted to Tapit Steve Klesaris 50 54
24 All Other Three Ye 8 3

Schoolyard Dreams.

[AeWingnut]

37-1 seems a little low on Pleasant Prince but if I had to bet -

[Scav]

Schoolyard Dreams and SuperSaver are good bets IMO, i think both will be half those odds on Derby Day.

[wapete]

Noble's Promise looks decent @ 25-1. It's not a stretch to see him beating Dublin again to win the Ark. When he does you'll likely get 12-1 on derby day.

[AeWingnut]

Eskendereya with Looking and Lucky pays $42 while both of those with all other 3 yr olds pays $94 - $98

While an exacta box with Schoolyard Dreams - is what this thing is all about more digits than spaces 9999

I'm throwing Lucking at Lucky out and boxing some dream bets including Pleasant Prince

I just noticed - for the exacta they don't show a pay off for all other 3 yr olds with all other 3 yr olds.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by AeWingnut

Eskendereya with Looking and Lucky pays $42 while both of those with all other 3 yr olds pays $94 - $98

While an exacta box with Schoolyard Dreams - is what this thing is all about more digits than spaces 9999

I'm throwing Lucking at Lucky out and boxing some dream bets including Pleasant Prince

I just noticed - for the exacta they don't show a pay off for all other 3 yr olds with all other 3 yr olds.

The exacta can't pay field-field. Thus, if it's a field horse first, the first of the named runners in the pool behind that horse will be the second half of the exacta. For example, a result of field horse-field horse-field horse-Awesome Act would pay on field-Awesome Act.

NT

[Indian Charlie]

caracortado at 50/1 seems like a good play to me.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

caracortado at 50/1 seems like a good play to me.

OMG...I know, Im 100% sure your joking.