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#81
05-04-2011, 05:06 PM
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I would hope he would be able to run quick late after running so slow early.
He just screams out underlay and with the whispers of his issues, I just don't see how he's a good choice to play in the race. Are you going to actually bet him? 
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#82
05-04-2011, 05:20 PM
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I think I'd play him at 9/2. Exotics look totally random to me.
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#83
05-04-2011, 05:24 PM
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Right now, I'm leaning towards using just three horses: Pants on Fire, Master of Hounds, and Shackleford...based largely on odds vs post draws, but I have yet to really study past performances.
__________________
"Always be yourself...unless you suck!"
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#85
05-04-2011, 05:27 PM
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__________________
"Always be yourself...unless you suck!"
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#87
05-04-2011, 05:39 PM
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If anyone is willing to excuse the Wood performance than it's safe to say that on paper Uncle Mo is the best in this field. I've looked this over several times and I can't find much beyond the other obvious favorites. For a price, I do like Santiva. Not impressed by his race times, but like this ones style and the fact he ran wide around the track in the Risen Star and finished second to Mucho Macho Man who I like as well. Animal Kingdom hasn't seen real dirt, but Motion should have this one ready. Dialed in obviously needs the trip, but could blow these away in deep stretch. So, for what it's worth, this is who I like 72 hours out.
1. 18 - Uncle Mo 2. 12 - Santiva 3. 8 - Dialed In 4. 13 - MMM 5. 16 - Animal Kingdom
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#88
05-04-2011, 05:43 PM
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OK, here we go:
Dialed In...9-8-13-0-0 3.62/0.87 Uncle Mo...1-2-5-0-0 2.20/0.50 Mucho Macho Man...5-1-5-1-0 2.43/0.83 Soldat...7-6-11-2-0 2.47/0.69 Nehro...12-8-12-0-0 4.33/1.00 Archarcharch...6-3-20-1-0 1.73/0.47 Midnight Interlude...6-5-15-0-0 2.47/0.65 Santiva...4-3-21-0-0 1.67/0.39 Shackleford...6-13-9-0-2 3.62/0.70 Stay Thirsty...4-6-16-0-0 2.25/0.84 Pants on Fire...6-6-12-0-0 3.00/0.75 Brilliant Speed...7-3-23-0-1 1.72/0.44 Master of Hounds...12-2-30-12-0 1.07/0.25 Decisive Moment...3-2-9-0-0 2.11/0.57 Animal Kingdom...2-0-6-0-0 1.67/0.50 Comma to the top...3-0-5-0-0 2.20/0.75 Twice the Appeal...6-1-7-0-1 2.11/0.64 Watch Me Go...8-1-5-1-1 2.58/0.88 Twinspired...2-1-9-2-0 1.15/0.21 Derby Kitten...3-2-7-2-0 1.55/0.43
__________________
"Always be yourself...unless you suck!"
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#90
05-04-2011, 06:23 PM
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So the only horse we can chuck on dosage is Nehro? That's a really precise system that dosage.
__________________
The world's foremost expert on virtually everything on the Redskins 2010 season: "Im going to go out on a limb here. I say they make the playoffs."
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#91
05-04-2011, 06:28 PM
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__________________
"Always be yourself...unless you suck!"
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#92
05-04-2011, 08:15 PM
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The only thing is if one goes back 10 more years to 1940 - the rule still holds except for Count Fleet in 1943 with a 0-2-1-1-0. And we all know what kind of stud he was......
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#93
05-04-2011, 09:17 PM
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__________________
"Always be yourself...unless you suck!"
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#94
05-04-2011, 09:23 PM
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top 5
1/8/11/14/19
__________________
walocke
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#95
05-05-2011, 04:44 PM
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I am LONG-TIME buddy of Steve Byk, who knows just a little about horse racing except that I study a ton on the three Triple Crown races and bet them, with the help of Steve (Giacomo comes to mind), you folks, who actually know a LOT about horse racing, the DRF, etc.
Anyway, Wednesday morning I assigned positive values to the picks in this thread (Top 5 picks) and negative values in the "Toss" thread to try to get a feel for a consensus. This method worked great in 2007, the first year I did it, as the Derby Trailers' consensus was, in order, Street Sense, Curlin and Hard Spun, so it got the Trifecta. Not that the race didn't run to form, but still. It worked ok in 2008 (Big Brown, no tri), not so much in 2009 (Mine That Bird) or 2010 (Super Saver) although Ice Box and Paddy ranked very highly in this exercise last year. This year's "DT consensus" order is: Archarcharch Dialed In (close to Arch) Shackleford (big drop to Shackleford) Uncle Mo (small drop to here, and very close from here to Animal Kingdom) Soldat Mucho Macho Man Animal Kingdom Nehro (as noted above, big drop from Animal Kingdom) Midnight Interlude Brilliant Speed (crap from here down) Stay Thirsty Pants on Fire Twinspired Santiva Master of Hounds Twice the Appeal Decisive Moment Comma to the Top Watch me Go Nobody had Derby Kitten, obviously. Anyway, I'm hoping it's 2007 all over again and betting a tri box with 1-3-8-14. Had to throw 3 in because Borel busted my tri boxes the past two years. I really don't think he will finish in the money Saturday, but...
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#97
05-05-2011, 09:14 PM
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1.) Midnight Interlude
2.) Twinspired 3.) Dialed In 4.) Stay Thirsty 5.) Santiva Good racing luck, guys.
__________________
http://www.facebook.com/cajungator26
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#98
05-05-2011, 09:28 PM
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1. Dialed In
2. Midnight Interlude 3. Mucho Macho Man 4. Nehro 5. Twice the Appeal
__________________
Support your local Re-run or horse rescue organization. https://www.rerunottb.com/:)
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#99
05-05-2011, 11:07 PM
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1. Soldat
2. Pants On Fire 3. Archarcharch 4. Mucho Macho Man 5. Stay Thirsty
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