Ride on Normandy Invasion

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Of course because surely you and CJ have all the answers and no one elses opinion means anything. Of course it is easy to believe in absolutes when there is little chance to be proven wrong.

Come on, Chuck, it's a little far fetched to use his pedigree as a reason for his loss yesterday. You may have felt he was not bred for 10 furlongs prior to yesterday's race. However, he had no chance to get 10 furlongs with Revolutionary's pedigree with the ride he was given.

The idea to get him more involved early pre-supposed a moderate pace. Castellano has two major flaws as a rider. He is a HORRIBLE judge of pace and he has patented the ill-timed far turn move. Both of these flaws were exposed yesterday. The pace was MUCH faster than most expected, but there he was on Normandy Invasion, shoulder to shoulder with Goldencents just before the half-mile pole. He then asks him for a huge move at the 7/16ths pole and collars Palace Malice and Oxbow, who are not passed by another horse for at least another furlong.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Really? So breeding doesn't play a role in horses ability to run a distance of ground? Really?

Of course it does, but since I watched the race it is pretty obvious to me that under the right circumstances he can get the distance. Moving as he did between the 1/4 and 1/2 mile calls was a bit silly, and he still hung on for a good fourth. If that was the trainer's plan, as it seems, it was a dumb plan.

[Calzone Lord]

Mylute is Midnight Lute out of a Valid Expectations mare. He was about a length and a half behind Orb and following him wide the entire way.

He was only beaten 3.75 lengths and finished in a photo for 4th with Normandy Invasion.

Ideally, Chad Brown would have somehow had the foresight to know Palace Malice would run off in blinkers and the race would be a +30

Shackleford and Comma to The Top can be grabbed and dragged along by their riders through a half in 48.63 in the 2011 Derby... but certainly no speed of their caliber was in this field, BUT all it ever takes is for one horse to completely run-off and the others will chase for their position.

The mediocre Make Music For Me (Bernstein out of a Carson City mare) was 20th and last by more than 28 lengths after a half mile behind the 46.16 half mile in 2010. Make Music For Me closed 24 lengths in the Derby to finish 4th. Why? Because he liked the added distance? It sure didn't prove that way in the Belmont when he was 10th at every call the whole way around behind a slow pace.

Whenever you have a +30 race ... the further back you are the better off you are. Even being 28 lengths back, like Make Music For Me, is much preferable to being 8 lengths back.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Come on, Chuck, it's a little far fetched to use his pedigree as a reason for his loss yesterday. You may have felt he was not bred for 10 furlongs prior to yesterday's race. However, he had no chance to get 10 furlongs with Revolutionary's pedigree with the ride he was given.

The idea to get him more involved early pre-supposed a moderate pace. Castellano has two major flaws as a rider. He is a HORRIBLE judge of pace and he has patented the ill-timed far turn move. Both of these flaws were exposed yesterday. The pace was MUCH faster than most expected, but there he was on Normandy Invasion, shoulder to shoulder with Goldencents just before the half-mile pole. He then asks him for a huge move at the 7/16ths pole and collars Palace Malice and Oxbow, who are not passed by another horse for at least another furlong.

There are no absolute truths in this game.

We don't know what happened to make the horse finish the last 1/4 slow. Could be premature move, could be pedigree, could be physical issue considering he is now off after a grueling 3 race campaign.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Of course it does, but since I watched the race it is pretty obvious to me that under the right circumstances he can get the distance. Moving as he did between the 1/4 and 1/2 mile calls was a bit silly, and he still hung on for a good fourth. If that was the trainer's plan, as it seems, it was a dumb plan.

If he gets trapped behind the collapsing speed you'd kill him for that.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Mylute is Midnight Lute out of a Valid Expectations mare. He was about a length and a half behind Orb and following him wide the entire way.

He was only beaten 3.75 lengths and finished in a photo for 4th with Normandy Invasion.

Ideally, Chad Brown would have somehow had the foresight to know Palace Malice would run off in blinkers and the race would be a +30

Shackleford and Comma to The Top can be grabbed and dragged along by their riders through a half in 48.63 in the 2011 Derby... but certainly no speed of their caliber was in this field, BUT all it ever takes is for one horse to completely run-off and the others will chase for their position.

The mediocre Make Music For Me (Bernstein out of a Carson City mare) was 20th and last by more than 28 lengths after a half mile behind the 46.16 half mile in 2010. Make Music For Me closed 24 lengths in the Derby to finish 4th. Why? Because he liked the added distance? It sure didn't prove that way in the Belmont when he was 10th at every call the whole way around behind a slow pace.

Whenever you have a +30 race ... the further back you are the better off you are. Even being 28 lengths back, like Make Music For Me, is much preferable to being 8 lengths back.

Midnight Lute sprinted because of airway issues not pedigree

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Midnight Lute sprinted because of airway issues not pedigree

I've heard that said many times now.

It's still early, but Midnight Lute offspring have won 19% of their sprints (111) and finished in the money in 48% of them.

They've won 12% of their routes (71) and finished in the money in 39% of them

Meanwhile, Valid Expectations was a pure sprinter who never even raced beyond a mile in a racing career that spanned 27 starts.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I've heard that said many times now.

It's still early, but Midnight Lute offspring have won 19% of their sprints (111) and finished in the money in 48% of them.

They've won 12% of their routes (71) and finished in the money in 39% of them

Meanwhile, Valid Expectations was a pure sprinter who never even raced beyond a mile in a racing career that spanned 27 starts.

Well he was a pretty good sprinter himself no? Aren't the route numbers better than you'd expect for a sire who was only a sprinter? Especially considering that his oldest foals are 3? His best horses have mostly run well in routes.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

If he gets trapped behind the collapsing speed you'd kill him for that.

You make it sound as if those were his only two options. Staying outside of the collapsing speed but not hard sending NI after them at the 1/2 pole was completely plausible. Riders get beaten with premature moves every day, it just so happens that this one came under the microscope of the Derby. I don't think it's debatable that Castellano's ride cost NI any chance at the win though.

[Cannon Shell]

Any horse can clunk up and run well at a distance beyond their best if there is an insane pace and the race falls apart.

I remember a horse that Skiffington had called Hollywood Handsome. He was by Groovy out of a His Majesty mare who won grass races at 1 3/8ths coming from last. There are exceptions and things that dont make sense in breeding/racing.

I hardly paid attention to the Derby run up and didnt bet a cent on the race. Someone whose opinion I respect didn't like NI because of the pedigree. After watching the race it is hard to say he was wrong that a slight horse out of a Boston Harbor mare would have trouble making the 1/1/4.

[Calzone Lord]

This years half mile has been called "the 4th fastest in Derby history" but it's really a three-way tie for being the 2nd fastest in history, because both Groovy and Top Avenger ran a generic 45 1/5.

Here's a recap of the top finishers in these meltdown years:

Fastest Half in Derby History: Songandaprayer 44.86

Monarchos rallied from 16 lengths back to win this Derby.

Point Given, was 2nd by 1.5 lengths after a mile, but he faded badly in the stretch to finish 5th beaten 11.5 lengths.

Point Given won the Preakness, Belmont Stakes, Haskell, and Travers in his next four starts. His 12+ length victory in the Belmont Stakes over both Monarchos and Invisible Ink helped prove conclusively he was too close to the Derby pace.

Co 2nd fastest Derby half: Top Avenger 45 1/5

Pleasant Colony rallied from 18 lengths back to win. The top five finishers raced 16th, 19th, 12th, 18th, and 20th after a half mile. Pleasant Colony was off at 3/1 odds. The 2nd place finisher was 34/1. The 3rd, 4th, and 5th place finishers were all part of the mutual field.


Co 2nd fastest Derby half: Groovy 45 1/5

Ferdinand raced dead last early in 16th position and won this Derby from 20 lengths back at 17/1 odds. Snow Chief made the first middle move and faded to finish 12th. He won the Preakness by 4 lengths over Ferdinand next time out. Broad Brush raced 6th after a half mile, led after a mile, and finished 3rd.

Co 2nd fastest Derby half: Palace Malace (45.33)

19 horse field, the top five finishers raced 16th, 15th, 18th, 7th, and 17th after a half mile.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

You make it sound as if those were his only two options. Staying outside of the collapsing speed but not hard sending NI after them at the 1/2 pole was completely plausible. Riders get beaten with premature moves every day, it just so happens that this one came under the microscope of the Derby. I don't think it's debatable that Castellano's ride cost NI any chance at the win though.

It is debatable, that is the crux of the issue. If there were absolutes it would be a lot easier to win. IMO his move was visually enhanced by the other speed stopping. Don't the internal fractions show that?

How many of you bet on him?

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

How many of you bet on him?

I picked him 2nd and needed him for some nice money in bets tied into Princess of Sylmar on Friday ... I also made myself look like a bigger fool than ever with continual downplaying of Orb ... which I couldn't resist until watching Authenticity and Take Charge Indy both run huge on Friday.

Still ... if the roles were reversed ... and Orb ran the race Normandy Invasion did and Normandy Invasion ran the race Orb did ... I'd say without hesitation that Orb was too close to the pace and arguably best.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I picked him 2nd and needed him for some nice money in bets tied into Princess of Sylmar on Friday ... I also made myself look like a bigger fool than ever with continual downplaying of Orb ... which I couldn't resist until watching Authenticity and Take Charge Indy both run huge on Friday.

Still ... if the roles were reversed ... and Orb ran the race Normandy Invasion did and Normandy Invasion ran the race Orb did ... I'd say without hesitation that Orb was too close to the pace and arguably best.

How about trackus ground loss?

[Travis Stone]

The move was eerily similar to the move he put Bernardini through in the BC Classic. It was too early. I'm surprised there is debate about it. He was pushed-on for his bid outside the quarter pole in a race where the winning move is almost often after they straighten away.

If I'll Have Another was pushed into the pace on the far turn, he doesn't win. Obviously not every race is the same, but how many times is the Derby winner moving into contention as they near the quarter pole, and then taking over in the straight versus a big move on the turn? There are only so many Big Browns.

[Cannon Shell]

He ran 40 feet less than the Orb. What is that 2 or 3 lengths?

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

He ran 40 feet less than the Orb. What is that 2 or 3 lengths?

That stat would matter if he was far back as Orb, versus moving into the teeth of a wicked pace many lengths ahead of Orb.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

How about trackus ground loss?

NBC did a pretty cool segment with Donna Barton walking the track.

It came right before the Kevin Krigger piece.

The inside path and 2-path both were firm. As she walked across the track, her foot started to sink down in the 3 path, 4 path, 5 path. She said "the track is much deeper here" But from about the 6 or 7 path outward, the ground was suddenly firm again.

It's tricky to account for ground loss when the rail and 2 path look good, the 7 path and out look good ... and everything in between them looks deeper, and according to Donna Barton, was deeper as she walked over it.

[Calzone Lord]

The piece was with 2 hours and 42 minutes left in the 4 hour broadcast if you DVR'd it. She's standing in the stretch.

Maybe next time it rains, they could have Dickinson walk the course in ladies shoes like he used to when he'd train.

[Travis Stone]

She did a very similar segment when Super Saver won. In fact, she might have even mentioned the perfect path was right where Calvin Borel liked to be.