Least & Most Vulnerable Favorites?

Sightseek · #1 10-30-2010, 07:14 PM

While I know some smart ass is going to comment that the fields haven't been officially posted yet (and we haven't even discussed the weather

), but I am sure we are all busy handicapping when we should be out Trick or Treating...which favorites in the Breeder's Cup do you see as being the least and most vulnerable?

(I fear this will become another Z thread

)

ateamstupid · #2 10-30-2010, 07:32 PM

Most Vulnerable
Zenyatta
Rightly So
Tell a Kelly
Uncle Mo
Workforce
Girolamo

I think just about every favorite is vulnerable. If I had to pick three that are least likely to lose, it'd probably be Winter Memories, Midday and either Goldikova or Giant Oak.

randallscott35 · #3 10-30-2010, 07:33 PM

Faves I don't like.

-Winter Memories
-Uncle Mo
-Blind Luck
-Big Drama and Giarlomo
-Zenyatta.

The others don't say avoid or the faves will be near 5-1.

GPK · #4 10-30-2010, 07:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Faves I don't like.

-Winter Memories
-Uncle Mo
-Blind Luck
-Big Drama and Giarlomo
-Zenyatta.

The others don't say avoid or the faves will be near 5-1.

Rand, why don't you like Winter Memories?

Scav · #5 10-30-2010, 07:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Most Vulnerable
Zenyatta
Rightly So
Tell a Kelly
Uncle Mo
Workforce
Girolamo

I think just about every favorite is vulnerable. If I had to pick three that are least likely to lose, it'd probably be Winter Memories, Midday and either Goldikova or Giant Oak.

While I am probably using Giant Oak, his exercise rider was helping us out this summer and he told us he is the biggest hanger. Said that he just drops the bit when he gets towards the lead and while he has talent, just wont' pass horses.

randallscott35 · #6 10-30-2010, 07:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK

Rand, why don't you like Winter Memories?

Very tough to take a filly at a short price in this race when you don't know what to make of the Euros. Her last was really really big as well. Yes she gets 4 weeks from it but the number power of Interactif last year should show that stringing enormous turf efforts back to back for 2 year olds is difficult IMO. Thus I wouldn't say she can't get a piece but the risk reward will leave her off Pick 4s and doubles for me.

ateamstupid · #7 10-30-2010, 07:45 PM

I can't possibly fathom someone leaving Winter Memories out of a Pick 4 completely. She's easily the most likely winner IMO, and even if you don't think so, if you get 3/4 because you left out a $6 horse, you really should be smacked.

randallscott35 · #8 10-30-2010, 07:46 PM

I think Midday is going to lose and she'll be 4-5.

randallscott35 · #9 10-30-2010, 07:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I can't possibly fathom someone leaving Winter Memories out of a Pick 4 completely. She's easily the most likely winner IMO, and even if you don't think so, if you get 3/4 because you left out a $6 horse, you really should be smacked.

That's what makes horse racing great. It won't bother me in the slightest.

GPK · #10 10-30-2010, 07:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Very tough to take a filly at a short price in this race when you don't know what to make of the Euros. Her last was really really big as well. Yes she gets 4 weeks from it but the number power of Interactif last year should show that stringing enormous turf efforts back to back for 2 year olds is difficult IMO. Thus I wouldn't say she can't get a piece but the risk reward will leave her off Pick 4s and doubles for me.

Fair enough. I think she can move forward, but that's just my opinion. If she turns out half as good as her dam, she will be pretty good.

ateamstupid · #11 10-30-2010, 07:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

That's what makes horse racing great. It won't bother me in the slightest.

Really? If you have $40 winners in the other three legs and miss a Pick 4 because you left off a completely logical $6 horse, that won't irk you at all? I find that pretty hard to believe.

pweizer · #12 10-30-2010, 07:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

While I am probably using Giant Oak, his exercise rider was helping us out this summer and he told us he is the biggest hanger. Said that he just drops the bit when he gets towards the lead and while he has talent, just wont' pass horses.

I can't believe Giant Oak will go favored. However, if so, he has to be the most vulnerable favorite of all times. When is the last time he won a race? Seriously, I can't find it on the page. It must have been two years ago.

This says a lot about Giant Oak but even more about the silliness of the marathon as a division.

Paul

randallscott35 · #13 10-30-2010, 07:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Really? If you have $40 winners in the other three legs and miss a Pick 4 because you left off a completely logical $6 horse, that won't irk you at all? I find that pretty hard to believe.

Believe it. I don't structure bets the same way many do.

randallscott35 · #14 10-30-2010, 07:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pweizer

I can't believe Giant Oak will go favored. However, if so, he has to be the most vulnerable favorite of all times. When is the last time he won a race? Seriously, I can't find it on the page. It must have been two years ago.

This says a lot about Giant Oak but even more about the silliness of the marathon as a division.

Paul

Offshore he is favored. I can't understand why but then I can't understand the idea of a dirt marathon race anyway. I don't think I'm betting this race at all.

ateamstupid · #15 10-30-2010, 08:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Believe it. I don't structure bets the same way many do.

You're so mysterious. Pretty sure you're lying. You'd be looking for a ledge. How many times does one have three $40 winners in one Pick 4? A handful per lifetime? And throwing that away by excluding a $6 horse would eat you alive just like it would anyone else.

randallscott35 · #16 10-30-2010, 08:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

You're so mysterious. Pretty sure you're lying. You'd be looking for a ledge. How many times does one have three $40 winners in one Pick 4? A handful per lifetime? And throwing that away by excluding a $6 horse would eat you alive just like it would anyone else.

40, try 70 or 90 dollar winners. It happens. No ledges. One thing I'm really good at is turning the page...No joke, its the truth.

ateamstupid · #17 10-30-2010, 08:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

40, try 70 or 90 dollar winners. It happens. No ledges. One thing I'm really good at is turning the page...No joke, its the truth.

Sure. You're just so awesome that you'll find five $100 winners in a row the next day. I get it.

randallscott35 · #18 10-30-2010, 08:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Sure. You're just so awesome that you'll find five $100 winners in a row the next day. I get it.

Why the animosity? I don't play that many multirace wagers. When I do, they are usually oddly put together. It's what works for me. To each his own.

pweizer · #19 10-30-2010, 08:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Offshore he is favored. I can't understand why but then I can't understand the idea of a dirt marathon race anyway. I don't think I'm betting this race at all.

I hope he goes favored. I am not sure I will be this race either but at first glance, Awesome Gem looks interesting to me. While no win machine himself, he has won graded stakes races and he has faced much better consistently than will line up for the marathon.

Paul

randallscott35 · #20 10-30-2010, 08:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pweizer

I hope he goes favored. I am not sure I will be this race either but at first glance, Awesome Gem looks interesting to me. While no win machine himself, he has won graded stakes races and he has faced much better consistently than will line up for the marathon.

Paul

True about him but he settles for pieces far too often...I'm just passing it.