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#41
02-19-2011, 08:16 AM
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KDFW LIVE ODDS
SATURDAY MORNING ODDS (ML/Current): 1 Anthony's Cross Eoin Harty 30 65 2 Astrology Steven Asmussen 30 58 3 Brethren Todd Pletcher 15 18 4 Clubhouse Ride Craig Lewis 50 99 5 Comma to the Top Peter Miller 20 99 6 Decisive Moment Juan Arias 50 99 7 Dialed In Nicholas Zito 10 8 8 Gourmet Dinner Steven Standridge 30 99 9 Indian Winter Jerry Hollendorfer 50 99 10 J P's Gusto David Hofmans 20 86 11 Jaycito Bob Baffert 20 33 12 Machen Neil Howard 30 50 13 Mucho Macho Man Katherine Ritvo 30 99 14 Rogue Romance Kenneth McPeek 30 59 15 Santiva Eddie Kenneally 30 79 16 Silver Medallion Steven Asmussen 20 85 17 Soldat Kiaran McLaughlin 20 29 18 Stay Thirsty Todd Pletcher 30 68 19 Sweet Ducky Kelly Breen 50 99 20 The Factor Bob Baffert 20 40 21 Tiz Blessed Chad Brown 30 99 22 To Honor and Serve William Mott 10 17 23 Uncle Mo Todd Pletcher 9/2 3 24 All Other Three Ye 5/2 1
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans 
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#42
02-19-2011, 08:31 AM
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Quote:
--Dunbar
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
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#43
02-19-2011, 08:41 AM
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these things are so ridiculous.....i guess i could put a few bucks on anthonys cross at 65-1. but who in their right mind would bet 1-1 or 3-1 in a futures pool......practically 3 months in advance???? if recent history is any indication you should get 3-1 that pletchers horse even makes it. i seriously don't see how these things survive...its got to be the hype.
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#44
02-19-2011, 09:35 AM
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I like to look for prices. Too many things can go wrong either on the track or health wise this early to take short prices. Second I like to look for a horse who will not run this week. They tend to float up in price or hold steady while those who impress on the track during the pool get overbet. Thirdly I will only bet a horse who ran during the pool if they didnt perform up to par and the price goes up high enough to bet them. I used all three last year on Super Saver on two of the pools including the last pool when his second to Line Of David was frowned upon. So far this week I'm looking at Soldat and Stay Thirsty. I have others in mind but since they are racing this week, judgement on them is on hold.
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#45
02-19-2011, 12:33 PM
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Quote:
With any horse bet, in addition to the track take you're up against inside information. I don't know if the amount of inside info is greater with the Future Wager or not. If you think it is greater, then that's one good reason to stay away from the future wager. Otherwise, it's a bet like any other bet.* I happen to think it has offered some monster edges in the past. --Dunbar * But where else do you get people betting on horses when they could have waited a few hours to make the same bet, but could have watched the horse actually run a race in the meantime?! I like betting against that kind of bettor.
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
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#46
02-19-2011, 01:05 PM
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After todays Risen Star some of these will really change. This kind of bet is a true gamble. Payoffs can be good. No way I would ever bet anyone under 10-1. To Honor and Serve has some appeal to me at 17-1. This may even creep up more after the Risen Star today. I usually just bet $20-25 on these type of wagers.
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#48
02-20-2011, 01:29 PM
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Why do you like Santiva?
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#50
02-20-2011, 02:49 PM
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Quote:
I was going to play a win bet but I like the flexibility of the exacta box and wanted some action. I've never got involved in any of these future pools before so we'll see. The horse I wanted to play was To Honor and Serve, but at 10/1, I will pass on it, if he were 20/1 I would have made him the exacta key
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#51
02-20-2011, 04:03 PM
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Uncle Mo must bring out the betters. With one hour to go. Handle is up $60K combined win and exacta over last year.
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#52
02-20-2011, 04:04 PM
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I also was interested in Santiva at odds of 40/1 or higher. His first race off the shelf yesterday he went wide on both turns and came up a little short. Seems he has every right to move up off that race. Also ran a decent race over the CD strip. I'm not saying he is the most likely winner or anything like that, but i think 40+ to 1 is pretty good value and he could very well move up.
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#53
02-20-2011, 04:07 PM
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Santiva can't win the Derby. . . Tiz Blessed and Mucho Macho Man seem like the only ones I'd throw a few $ on for fun. . . The hope would be that MMM gets purchased privately and turned over to a better trainer.
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#54
02-20-2011, 07:01 PM
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Quote:
Tiz Blessed was sick and Brown has not a clue, plan or idea of what to do with him next. Article was in the Saturday Gazette.
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#55
02-20-2011, 07:02 PM
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Quote:
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#56
02-20-2011, 07:24 PM
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I always make some token win bets on these futures, and played some exactas for the first time.
I played: Dialed IN in the first and second slots in exactas with Clubhouse Ride, Indian Winter, Mucho Macho Man, Uncle Mo, and the field. Uncle Mo in exactas over Clubhouse Ride, Indian Winter, and Mucho Macho Man. Clubhouse Ride, Indian Winter, and Mucho Macho Man to win.
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Still trying to outsmart me, aren't you, mule-skinner? You want me to think that you don't want me to go down there, but the subtle truth is you really don't want me to go down there!
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#57
02-20-2011, 09:11 PM
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Quote:
Sway Away just came off a lay-off for a trainer with terrible lay-off stats to run a 100 Beyer at a distance that factors to be much shorter than his best based on pedigree. He's not "the goods," but he is the type of horse who could put it all together in the right race. The only problem with him is that his close today looked better than it really was, so lots of otherwise clueless people will jump on the bandwagon. I put $10 on Tiz Blessed just for fun. . . If he remains sick, I'll survive. As you know, I have THAS at 30-1 for a lot more money. . . he's 10-1 in Pool 1.
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#58
02-20-2011, 09:41 PM
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Santiva ran ok - but I still don't like him at all. No shot for the Derby.
At least Sway Away can be moved up and called an X Facor. The Factor still remains on my X Factor section as well ... but if I had to pick between Sway Away or The Factor for the Kentucky Derby .. I'd lean to Sway Away.
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#59
02-20-2011, 09:49 PM
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I was completely underwhelmed by the 1-2 finishers of the Risen Star. I guess Mucho Macho Man is better around two turns but that was a slow pace and the 3-4 finishers both received poor rides.
Santiva never was good and still isn't. I'd need 250-1 to even be mildly interested.
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#60
02-20-2011, 10:45 PM
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Quote:
Mucho Macho Man probably got back to his 0.5 yesterday on the TG's. That means Santiva ran about that or maybe a 1, thus a top, he could be primed for a major effort depending on how many races they run him in. I think he moves forward, and I think he has a real shot at winning the LA Derby, and if he does, he is 10/1 in the next future pool. He is 45/1, I've bet worse before
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