2/18-20 (CD): Kentucky Derby Future Wager (Pool 1)

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Uncle Mo should be 2/1 to win the race, and 8/1 to make the race.

THAS is a serious animal who is about to do some serious things.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Of the 23....only 10 look like they have a prayer.

Strong Contender:

Uncle Mo

Somewhat of a contender:

To Honor And Serve
Silver Medallion
Dialed In

Marginal chance:

Clubhouse Ride
Mucho Macho Man (juice trainer would help)

X Factor:

Jaycito
The Factor
Machen
Soldat

I'm curious as to why you think THAS is only somewhat of a contender that you lumped in with basically a grass horse?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

He's #2 because he's not as good as Uncle Mo - and he has a very similar style of running.

The horses who thrive in the Kentucky Derby fall into two profiles:

1.) They simply prove themselves a better route horses than anyone else in the field

2.) They are horses with deep closing running styles who pick up the pieces while superior horses to them are pushing the reset button at the 5/16ths pole. (Ice Box, Pioneer of the Nile, Denis of Cork, Giacomo, and Steppenwolfer have all been in the trifecta since 2005)


Steve Asmussen would be lucky if he could have got Rachel Alexandra to win an alw race on a synthetic track when she was 3.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

He's #2 because he's not as good as Uncle Mo - and he has a very similar style of running.

The horses who thrive in the Kentucky Derby fall into two profiles:

1.) They simply prove themselves a better route horses than anyone else in the field

2.) They are horses with deep closing running styles who pick up the pieces while superior horses to them are pushing the reset button at the 5/16ths pole. (Ice Box, Pioneer of the Nile, Denis of Cork, Giacomo, and Steppenwolfer have all been in the trifecta since 2005)


Steve Asmussen would be lucky if he could have got Rachel Alexandra to win an alw race on a synthetic track when she was 3.

Oh, I understand why he's #2 - although I'm not conceding anything to Uncle Mo, esp. since neither horse has run at 3. I'm expecting Mo to be very good, but I also have enormous confidence in THAS. Misplaced? Who knows, lol - I've been wrong before.

I've seen some polls with Dialed In on top; I love Mineshaft and I like the horse a lot, but he's always going to be at the mercy of the pace.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Field will be 6-5 or less?

It's never closed that low, Randall. I'm pretty sure that last year's 3-2 is the lowest ever.

--Dunbar

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

It's never closed that low, Randall. I'm pretty sure that last year's 3-2 is the lowest ever.

--Dunbar

Could be the year

[Indian Charlie]

No freaking way the field sets a new record low price for round 1.

This could very well be the time that the fave is an individual horse and not the field.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

No freaking way the field sets a new record low price for round 1.

This could very well be the time that the fave is an individual horse and not the field.

Zero chance of that

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Zero chance of that

Not really. It will be tight.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Not really. It will be tight.

Zero

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

THAS is a serious animal who is about to do some serious things.

Repole should have you shot.

The horse will probably Colic tonight and die, thanks to you.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

Repole should have you shot.

The horse will probably Colic tonight and die, thanks to you.

To Honor and Serve isn't owned by Repole.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

Repole should have you shot.

The horse will probably Colic tonight and die, thanks to you.

F

U

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

To Honor and Serve isn't owned by Repole.

He is a legend in his own mind.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

To Honor and Serve isn't owned by Repole.

Oh, I thought Joey black cloud misspelled That's.

[gamblin4ever]

If you wager on these future pools, the value could be Anthony's Cross, Astrology, Machen, and/or Soldat.

A. Cross = if he runs very well 1st or 2nd in the SA Derby
Astrology = if he runs as good as he has when he comes back.
Machen = if he don't run that good this w/e, but stays on the trail and runs
good later on.
Soldat = if he runs very well @ FOY.

I expect the odds to go down the closer we get to the Derby if they run good
later on.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by gamblin4ever

If you wager on these future pools, the value could be Anthony's Cross, Astrology, Machen, and/or Soldat.

A. Cross = if he runs very well 1st or 2nd in the SA Derby
Astrology = if he runs as good as he has when he comes back.
Machen = if he don't run that good this w/e, but stays on the trail and runs
good later on.
Soldat = if he runs very well @ FOY.

I expect the odds to go down the closer we get to the Derby if they run good
later on.

I wouldn't touch any of these at 40-1 or less. I'd need 100-1 on Astrology.

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I wouldn't touch any of these at 40-1 or less. I'd need 100-1 on Astrology.

I think the ALL OTHERS pool would look a lot better if the Southwest ran on Saturday instead of Monday. At least that way, you could see if someone like Elite Alex, Arch Arch Arch or Alternation has any kind of potential.

Regardless, if I wanted to throw $20 down on the FIELD at probable odds of 2-1, I would just pick up a form and bet a race that's going off in 5 minutes, rather than 85 days from now.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I wouldn't touch any of these at 40-1 or less. I'd need 100-1 on Astrology.

I would take him over Anthonys Cross.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Like the 2 War Front horses. Won't play this bet though. Didn't like either winner of the last 2 Derbies. So, why play this?