Hollywood Park is History today

Originally Posted by Pointg5

A maiden allowance race? wtf is that?

He won in the slop at Keeneland, beat He's a Slow Salt...

He was undefeated on dirt, until the Kentucky Derby...

It is MSW otherwise known as a Maiden Allowance. Show me the race where Lawyer Ron won a race at Keeneland. Here is his pp's.

04.15.06 Arkansas Derby (GII) 1st Chart Recap Video Pulled rider to lead; coasted home
03.18.06 Rebel (GIII) 1st Chart Recap Video Showed added versatility closing from fifth
02.25.06 Southwest 1st Chart Recap Video Controlled pace, held Steppenwolfer safe
01.14.06 Risen Star (GIII) 1st Chart Recap Video Powerhouse win; middle of the track
12.31.05 Diamond Jo Stakes @ Evangeline Downs 1st Chart Video Dusted overmatched foes
12.09.05 Allowance @ Louisiana Downs 1st Chart Drew away to 10 3/4 length win
11.20.05 Grand Canyon @ Churchill Downs 4th Even effort on the turf
11.05.05 Turf allowance @ Churchill Downs 3rd
10.21.05 Maiden allowance @ Keeneland 3rd Chart
10.05.05 Maiden allowance @ Turfway 5th
09.14.05 Maiden claiming @ Turfway 2nd
08.25.05 Maiden turf allowance @ Ellis Park 7th
08.05.05 Maiden turf allowance @ Ellis Park 3rd
07.24.05 Maiden turf allowance @ Ellis Park 3rd

You can count me out of playing Hollywood other than grass races in the fall. This stuff is going to have a bad effect on handle eventually. Its completely unformful in relation to dirt racing. WHose gonna risk running high priced stuff on that surface very long? You can bet your butt that once they start running on it, the owners who have horses who dont fire on it will be shipping their horses out of there faster than you can say dirt.

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

Here is the chart for Lawyer Ron's maiden win at Keeneland...

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2006/de.../chart_msw.pdf

This is the most underrated horse in the U.S. right now because everyone says he is overrated. How many times did he beat Steppenwolfer? How many? Three. What happened to Lawyer Ron in the Derby? He finished 12th. Logic would say that something had to have happened to him since that "slow" horse coming out of OP Steppenwolfer finished third and LR finished a distant 12th because LR is a much better horse than Steppenwolfer. Gee, could it be that Holthus had been running the horse into the ground with a chip in which he had surgery on immediately after the Derby? I wonder...

Well I am sorry. Guess KYDerby.com was wrong. Sorry Point and everyone else.

Originally Posted by oracle80

You can count me out of playing Hollywood other than grass races in the fall. This stuff is going to have a bad effect on handle eventually. Its completely unformful in relation to dirt racing. WHose gonna risk running high priced stuff on that surface very long? You can bet your butt that once they start running on it, the owners who have horses who dont fire on it will be shipping their horses out of there faster than you can say dirt.

What I think it going to happen is that trainers will train their horses on the stuff. Maybe run them on the stuff when they come back from an injury, or maybe to get the horse some experience. A great angle to play is going to be a first time starter on Poly and doesnt do well. Then the trainer moves the horse to dirt. Also the same can be applied to horses off a layoff.

Lemons Forever and lawyer Ron despised it. Oh and how did the winners on Ky Cup day do afterwards? They all went absolutely nowhere.
Ny is acting very prudently with its wait and see attitude. My guess? My guess is that tracks on the East Coast will get an even bigger kick after so many horses out west start running poorly on polytrack and trainers and owners start bitching about a lack of form. Gulfstream will boom even more, and Ny will as well.
Its just not a dirt replacement, thats the problem. We don't have horses who are bred for polytrack and making speed figures on it is very hard, which means big players will say no thanks.
Lets face it, this is all about money. The three-four companies who market this stuff aren't at all concerned with horse health, they are concerned with getting contracts and cash. Trainers out west will soon find training a completely different way to be very hard and against everything they learned their whole lives, hard to start fresh after 20-30 years of doing something the same way. Its a specialists surface, and as soon as owners think they don't have a specialist, they will send those horses East to run on dirt. I'd love to own the shipping companies in California come winter/springtime, the flights will be overbooked nonstop.

Originally Posted by oracle80

Lemons Forever and lawyer Ron despised it. Oh and how did the winners on Ky Cup day do afterwards? They all went absolutely nowhere.
Ny is acting very prudently with its wait and see attitude. My guess? My guess is that tracks on the East Coast will get an even bigger kick after so many horses out west start running poorly on polytrack and trainers and owners start bitching about a lack of form. Gulfstream will boom even more, and Ny will as well.
Its just not a dirt replacement, thats the problem. We don't have horses who are bred for polytrack and making speed figures on it is very hard, which means big players will say no thanks.
Lets face it, this is all about money. The three-four companies who market this stuff aren't at all concerned with horse health, they are concerned with getting contracts and cash. Trainers out west will soon find training a completely different way to be very hard and against everything they learned their whole lives, hard to start fresh after 20-30 years of doing something the same way. Its a specialists surface, and as soon as owners think they don't have a specialist, they will send those horses East to run on dirt. I'd love to own the shipping companies in California come winter/springtime, the flights will be overbooked nonstop.

Well Lemons finished 3rd on the stuff. I think Lemons is a bad example because that horse is a one race wonder. Lawyer Ron is a good example. But Poly isnt marketed as a dirt replacement. It is marketed to keep the horses sound and to save the track $$$.

[packerbacker7964]

Yeah it'll save them money on track maintenance but offer less money wagered over all so where is the make and break point? I won't bet that $hit plain and simple. I'm a Turf man myself and looks like I'll have to be one for a while yet. Hey to each his own. If you can make so much money of this stuff why don't you drop some winners on us when Turfway opens back up for business. It's not that I can't handicap this stuff it's like O said they're all over the place on this stuff. Hardly any hosres held form at Turfway this winter. I'm with O on this being a blessing in that my other favorite tracks on the East coast will get fat with horses by the end of the 2008 spring meet.

Originally Posted by packerbacker7964

Yeah it'll save them money on track maintenance but offer less money wagered over all so where is the make and break point? I won't bet that $hit plain and simple. I'm a Turf man myself and looks like I'll have to be one for a while yet. Hey to each his own. If you can make so much money of this stuff why don't you drop some winners on us when Turfway opens back up for business. It's not that I can't handicap this stuff it's like O said they're all over the place on this stuff. Hardly any hosres held form at Turfway this winter. I'm with O on this being a blessing in that my other favorite tracks on the East coast will get fat with horses by the end of the 2008 spring meet.

It is no big deal to me that horses didnt hold form at Turfway this year. I could care less what horses that raced at Turfway did at other tracks. You cant use that as an indicator. Turfway winter meet was a great learning experience for handicappers and I think people will wager on it. Bettors are bettors and once they grasp the handicapping angles, they will wager. Now a horse that I can't get a grasp on is High Cotton. The horse did ok at Turfway and is doing OK on dirt. But I am sort of confused by that horse.

The east coast tracks that will flouirsh (if any at all) will be either Mountaineer or PA tracks. I cant see too many trainers from Ohio, Kentucky or Indiana shipping their horse to New York.
But when Turfway opens this fall, I will give out some picks and hopefully they will come in for us.

[tiznowthegreat]

Not arguing whether it's good for Hollywood or not (actually fear the day the Ky Derby is ran on artificial surface) but just adding on to the handicapping points made earlier. If you do take time (a ton of time) then it can be a great handicapping advantage. Horses that ran once on the surface, or at least had a couple of workouts on it, often improve drastically the second time out. Another useful angle is how their form transfers to different tracks. This last spring, horses shipping from Turfway either did extremely well or poorly at specific tracks. I get the two confused, but I believe horses coming off Polytrack races won at around 25-30% at Keeneland, but started like 0-60 at Oaklawn (might have switched Keeneland and Oaklawn).

[sumitas]

High Cotton won a stakes on it and since has won dirt stakes.