5/1 (CD): Kentucky Oaks (G1) - Page 3

ateamstupid · #41 04-29-2009, 12:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by skippy3481

As i was scanning down the from, i noticed that there is a pick 3 with the oaks, woodford, and derby. Is that something new this year? Or have i just missed it in years past? I've always taken a shot with the double, because if you can beat the top 2 favorites in either race, you have a shot to have a nice score.

New.

letswastemoney · #42 04-29-2009, 12:31 AM

Flying Spur's good races have all come on an off track. It's going to rain on Friday right? So she'll be 2nd or 3rd probably. Maybe to get value, you could hope that Justwhistledixie doesn't handle an off track?

blackthroatedwind · #43 04-29-2009, 03:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

The Hal's Hope was a much better race than you're giving it credit for. Bribon didn't show up, agreed, although that seems to be his MO in graded stakes. Would you like the pacesetter in that race in here? What about It's a Bird, who got buried?

It's a Bird got a horrendous ride in that race and was given no chance.

Scurlogue Champ · #44 04-29-2009, 03:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It's a Bird got a horrendous ride in that race and was given no chance.

I thought It's A Bird was a piece of ****, but after looking at his PP's, I'm impressed.

Sightseek · #45 04-29-2009, 08:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

Flying Spur's good races have all come on an off track. It's going to rain on Friday right? So she'll be 2nd or 3rd probably. Maybe to get value, you could hope that Justwhistledixie doesn't handle an off track?

Flying Spur blew the start at the Silverbulletday and was a bit of a mess in the paddock so I consider that a pretty good effort considering.

Travis Stone · #46 04-29-2009, 08:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Flying Spur blew the start at the Silverbulletday and was a bit of a mess in the paddock so I consider that a pretty good effort considering.

I think she's the horse to beat RA if something crazy happens. But if you watch the Oaks at FG... she was running, RA was galloping... if RA was running, she wins by five and the Beyer proximity between the two is non-existent.

NTamm1215 · #47 04-29-2009, 09:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I think Be Fair is interesting underneath.

I loved her in the Ashland off the less than stellar trip in the Fantasy and I thought she ran like crap.

However, as the meet developed at Keeneland it seemed to me that sitting that 'watchdog' trip going two turns is not good. If you give her a pass on the Poly race she fits underneath and her price should be rewarding.

NT

miraja2 · #48 04-29-2009, 09:37 AM

I agree with the consensus that Rachel Alexandra is clearly the most likely winner of the Oaks, but could the hopeless Tweeter make her work more through the first 4f-6f than she has during her recent 4-race streak? RA hasn't had to run a sub :47 half in her last four races, and given that Tweeter won her last on the front end, drew the rail, and posted a very sharp work in her last, I wonder if Lukas is planning on having her battle RA early. Does the fact that the last time RA was in a race that went faster than :47 she lost mean something, or not?

Of course, RA is probably good enough that it won't matter even if that scenario does play out, but if all the money lands on RA, might Justwhistledixie be a smart play if she is something like 4/1 or 5/1?

Travis Stone · #49 04-29-2009, 10:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2

Of course, RA is probably good enough that it won't matter even if that scenario does play out, but if all the money lands on RA, might Justwhistledixie be a smart play if she is something like 4/1 or 5/1?

I think you're right about RA having to work harder than ever before on Friday and perhaps it ruffles her feathers. But as likely I think this it to happen, I think it's more likely that Justwhistledixie is exposed. When you poke around her running lines at Gulfstream she was racing against some really suspect competition.

At least Flying Spur ran second to RA, and at least Be Fair can figure for a share if you toss her poly race.

I feel you can make money by beating both RA and JWD, or using RA and tossing JWD.

philcski · #50 04-29-2009, 10:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I think she's the horse to beat RA if something crazy happens. But if you watch the Oaks at FG... she was running, RA was galloping... if RA was running, she wins by five and the Beyer proximity between the two is non-existent.

Cross off the slop races... Flying Spur's non-off track performances are mediocre at best.

Travis Stone · #51 04-29-2009, 10:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

Cross off the slop races... Flying Spur's non-off track performances are mediocre at best.

From what I've read though its supposed to be wet on Friday?

Travis Stone · #52 04-29-2009, 10:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

Cross off the slop races... Flying Spur's non-off track performances are mediocre at best.

One was her debut and the other she rushed the gate... She is obviously better this year than last too. I think it's risky to toss her under the assumption she doesn't handle a dry track.

philcski · #53 04-29-2009, 10:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

One was her debut and the other she rushed the gate... She is obviously better this year than last too. I think it's risky to toss her under the assumption she doesn't handle a dry track.

Fair points- I honestly think she hits the board, because the rest of the field is no better- but I have no interest in playing exactas and trifectas in this race. It's either try to get a live pick 4 to RA, with a small backup ticket to beat her, or not play the race at all.

It might be wet on Friday anyways, as you stated. Calling for an afternoon thunderstorm.

Travis Stone · #54 04-29-2009, 10:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

Fair points- I honestly think she hits the board, because the rest of the field is no better- but I have no interest in playing exactas and trifectas in this race. It's either try to get a live pick 4 to RA, with a small backup ticket to beat her, or not play the race at all.

It might be wet on Friday anyways, as you stated. Calling for an afternoon thunderstorm.

I'm looking at it from the Oaks/Derby double to try and cover some longshots in the Derby who will never find their way on top of my tickets on Saturday. But I might toss a few towards beating RA into some of the logicals on Saturday... not sure.

CSC · #55 04-29-2009, 11:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I'm looking at it from the Oaks/Derby double to try and cover some longshots in the Derby who will never find their way on top of my tickets on Saturday. But I might toss a few towards beating RA into some of the logicals on Saturday... not sure.

If RA is all that she is being touted as, is the derby/oaks double even worth betting. The only way to make real money on the double is if she loses in my opinion since she is most likely a single on most tix.

Travis Stone · #56 04-29-2009, 11:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC

If RA is all that she is being touted as, is the derby/oaks double even worth betting. The only way to make real money on the double is if she loses in my opinion since she is most likely a single on most tix.

The double was overlaid last year to the parlay despite the two short prices. I think the bet can make lots of sense in terms of covering longshots on Saturday.

philcski · #57 04-29-2009, 11:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

The double was overlaid last year to the parlay despite the two short prices. I think the bet can make lots of sense in terms of covering longshots on Saturday.

Let's see what the willpays are but it's not a terrible approach.

Bobby Fischer · #58 04-29-2009, 03:58 PM

what the hell is this with 3 lukas horses

miraja2 · #59 04-29-2009, 04:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

what the hell is this with 3 lukas horses

If those three were allowed to run it as a relay race where each one of them only had to run 3 furlongs.....they might have an outside chance.....to hit the board.

Handicappy · #60 04-29-2009, 05:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC

If RA is all that she is being touted as, is the derby/oaks double even worth betting. The only way to make real money on the double is if she loses in my opinion since she is most likely a single on most tix.

I know about all the hype with respect to Rachel Alexandra but the last work was way too fast for the trainers liking. I think that was her race. I know about Hard Spun and what he did a couple of years ago coming off a blazing work but I don't think the trainer liked Calvin running her that fast. I think she is vulnerable and am putting Bafferts horse with Flying spur and justwhistledixie for the double. I think the last one is coming into this with just the right rest and should run her best which should do it if RA falters. And I think she will.
As for the derby half of the double, I am still working on it. I do like Pioneer alot with Friesan Fire, Hold Me Back, Mr. Hot Stuff and Desert Party. IWR from everything I have heard is gonna be a handful and I don't like Talamo's inexperience which he put on display in the Gotham. I don't get the hype on Dunkirk. three races, hasn't won a stake, never raced at 2. Too lean for me to put any money on. Chocolate Candy could be at huge odds and his stretch run against a slow pace in the Santa Anita Derby was very impressive. Should be a great show for fans. I'll be at a Derby Party at Belmont.