Rags to Riches/Belmont try?

[King Glorious]

I've always said that I believe it's better to have $100 on a 2/5 horse that wins than it is to be on a 7/1 shot that loses. Maybe that's just me though.

Funny that Rags won this race easier than she won her races in CA. She should have been in the Derby. Been saying that for two months now. Too bad.

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I've always said that I believe it's better to have $100 on a 2/5 horse that wins than it is to be on a 7/1 shot that loses. Maybe that's just me though.

Funny that Rags won this race easier than she won her races in CA. She should have been in the Derby. Been saying that for two months now. Too bad.

True. Its just that people seem to forget that 2-5 that never broke well and lost. Its a long haul proposition. If the favorite at most race tracks wins 30% of the time... and the favorite averages a bit above even odds... you will find yourself quickly in the hole.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

She was a complete gift at that price. And I didn't bet her.

...and so was that exacta! same here DaHoss...didn't have it either

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by jdm

pace collapsed inside her and horses weren't very talented.

umm, you might want to get some better pace information, and learn to watch races a little better. The pace was normal in those CA races. Also it wasn't so much that the other horses weren't talented, they just weren't nearly as talented as RTR. Hopefully you caught todays race because I think it should leave no doubt in your mind.

You said RTR wouldn't dominate, she crushed the field.
You said Cotton Blossom would run huge, she staggered home ninth.

[ddthetide]

i WAS playing to beat rags. i played 2-4-8-14 exbx. at the VERY LAST minute, i played ex 11w/2-4-8-14. saved me in the 10th race.

6th and 10th race ex's were the only two i cashed all day.

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

umm, you might want to get some better pace information, and learn to watch races a little better. The pace was normal in those CA races. Also it wasn't so much that the other horses weren't talented, they just weren't nearly as talented as RTR. Hopefully you caught todays race because I think it should leave no doubt in your mind.

You said RTR wouldn't dominate, she crushed the field.
You said Cotton Blossom would run huge, she staggered home ninth.

Sure did, very nice run by the winner. My selections didn't pan out. Oh well. Congrats

[todko]

Here's the scoop -- read all the way down:

http://www.drf.com/news/article/84695.html

Now tell me that Pletcher doesn't think that maybe he should have run her in the Derby. He may not admit it publicly . . .

Yeah, I know . . . Beyer 110 for Street Sense and 104 for Rags. Tell me when you can make money betting 6 point Beyer differences Or betting Beyer figures at all. Bet any Beyer figure you want . . . last highest . . . highest lifetime . . . you name it and it is a sure way to the soup line.

Rags cooked a 1:49 and change in serious slop. Finished in 12.19. Didn't have a dream rail trip on a fast track.

That's a running machine.

I hope she runs in the Belmont.

[Skip away]

I hope she does too and unless something happens in a workout between now and then, we get our wish in 5 weeks. Todd and Mike are playing it coy, this horse is shipping to Belmont Sunday to begin preparation.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by Skip away

I hope she does too and unless something happens in a workout between now and then, we get our wish in 5 weeks. Todd and Mike are playing it coy, this horse is shipping to Belmont Sunday to begin preparation.

Belmont a bad place to run a filly first time against the boys...in the entire history of the race, only two fillies have won...Ruthless in the very first running at Jerome Park in 1867 and Tanya in 1905 when the race was run at 10 furlongs! Strange place to try her...is Pletcher getting desperate?

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

Belmont a bad place to run a filly first time against the boys...in the entire history of the race, only two fillies have won...Ruthless in the very first running at Jerome Park in 1867 and Tanya in 1905 when the race was run at 10 furlongs! Strange place to try her...is Pletcher getting desperate?

She's got the best 12-furlong pedigree of any of his 3-year-olds and may be faster than any of them too. If that's the case, why not send her?

[Scurlogue Champ]

Coolmore doesn't need Street Cry getting a Triple Crown winner in his first crop.

Spoiler time.

I wouldn't be surprised if the entire American arm of Coolmore shows up.


I am repeating this information, by the way. Heard it somewhere else

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

She's got the best 12-furlong pedigree of any of his 3-year-olds and may be faster than any of them too. If that's the case, why not send her?

She's no Tanya imo!

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

She's got the best 12-furlong pedigree of any of his 3-year-olds and may be faster than any of them too. If that's the case, why not send her?

I agree. It is actually a "sporting" move. She has nothing to lose. Why not?

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

She's no Tanya imo!

I admit, she's got a nice distance pedigree...mom produced Jazil and top is good with AP Indy but no filly has ever won the Belmont at 12 furlongs...OK, Ruthless won at 13f in the first running but barely and against only 3 others, quality unknown. If I had a top filly, I'd wait until fall to try the boys. Just my preference. A lot to lose and little to gain by running her in the Belmont imo!

[knickslions2]

Street Sense will smoke her in the Belmont

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

I admit, she's got a nice distance pedigree...mom produced Jazil and top is good with AP Indy but no filly has ever won the Belmont at 12 furlongs...OK, Ruthless won at 13f in the first running but barely and against only 3 others, quality unknown. If I had a top filly, I'd wait until fall to try the boys. Just my preference. A lot to lose and little to gain by running her in the Belmont imo!

A lot to lose and little to gain? Are you kidding me? She could significantly improve her broodmare value, could get Pletcher a TC win with a filly, could REALLY cement the Eclipse.. What the hell is there to lose?

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

If I had a top filly, I'd wait until fall to try the boys. Just my preference. A lot to lose and little to gain by running her in the Belmont imo!

So you would wait until the boys matured and got better before you took them on? The gap gets larger as the horses get older.

What does she have to lose by running in the Belmont?

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

A lot to lose and little to gain? Are you kidding me? She could significantly improve her broodmare value, could get Pletcher a TC win with a filly, could REALLY cement the Eclipse.. What the hell is there to lose?

Her broodmare value is moot because there is only one guy who could afford her now other than her current owners and there is zero chance that Tabor and co. would let him have her.

But it would be a historic win if she won

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

I admit, she's got a nice distance pedigree...mom produced Jazil and top is good with AP Indy but no filly has ever won the Belmont at 12 furlongs...OK, Ruthless won at 13f in the first running but barely and against only 3 others, quality unknown. If I had a top filly, I'd wait until fall to try the boys. Just my preference. A lot to lose and little to gain by running her in the Belmont imo!

I can understand why Pletcher may be considering it though, her PF was better than Street Sense's (as I noted in the Ky Oaks thread), in fact...her's was the best in the Oaks since 1999 when Roman started the calculations:
Rags...-64
Lemons Forever...-36
Summerly...-30
Ashado...-59
Bird Town...-46
Farda Amiga...-49
Flute...-62
Secret Status...-51
Silverbulletday...-52
Still, a rough place to take on the colts!

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

A lot to lose and little to gain? Are you kidding me? She could significantly improve her broodmare value, could get Pletcher a TC win with a filly, could REALLY cement the Eclipse.. What the hell is there to lose?

Yeah, broodmare value is rather moot cause of her ownership...what to lose? When you have a champion, the last thing you want is a bad beating! A filly can beat the boys, Lady's Secret and others proved that, but if it was my horse...I'd pick a better spot! True, if she wins, she makes history but it's a huge gamble imo!