Possible new handicaping show

[joeydb]

Originally Posted by dagolfer33

Doug, can you do a video showing us how to make a cake like that? Maybe add some some hawt half-naked chicks and call it "Cake Whores."

LOL... now is THAT a thread jack?

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by joeydb

LOL... now is THAT a thread jack?

Since when is bringing up naked chicks EVER a thread jack?

Seriously.

[joeydb]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Since when is bringing up naked chicks EVER a thread jack?

Seriously.

OK - can't fault your logic there.

Those who want to discuss Doug's show, please resume doing so and get our thread back on track. Again - awesome job.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by joeydb

Great job Doug. I'd definitely watch and "youtube subscribe" to your channel.

I did have a couple of questions:

1) Do you find the presence of a speed duel to be reliably predictable before the race?

2) When you say efficiency in your analysis, do you mean from a Brohamer percent energy usage point of view, saving ground in the run, both, or neither?

I think your analysis has some real value and I'm just trying to see how I would use it in my own approach to the race, before it is run of course.

Again, awesome idea and great format. I love how you showed all the data you were referring to and formatted it for easy viewing, along with the run itself since I am not much of a trip handicapper on my own.

Joe

Question #1: There are situations where they are much more likely to occur -- but it shouldn't be something you can easily predict before a race for the simple fact that speed duels are so destructive and even the most incompetent of jockeys know this.

Question #2: Most every horse has a preferred running style. I judge how efficient they just ran in a race by looking at running styles and pace figures. I have read Brohamer's book, but I don't use his style of pace analysis.

* For a front-running horse ... the most efficent race they can run comes when they're on an uncontested early lead while running a pace figure that is within their typical range of comfort and they're not being hard-rated by the jockey. A lot of jockeys can screw-up when they get loose early by trying to rate too much.

* For a speed horse who doesn't have to be a front-runner ... the most efficent race is either the one described above or a clear stalking trip about 3/4 of a length to a 1 1/2 lengths off of an inferior pace setter.

* For a mid-pack type horse ... the most efficent possible race they can run is when speed horses are hooked up in-front of them and setting a strong pace - meanwhile they're gapped back in a clear and isolated position with no one else less than 2 lengths behind them. This trip will ensure a peak result and an absolute max speed figure.

* For a deep closing horse ... the most efficent possible race is obviously when a fast and hotly contested early pace is happening up front. That's all a deep closer can ask for. It will even help the deep closers cause a lot more if there is no mid-pack runner gapped in a clear and isolated position.

Those are the most efficent trips that lead to peak performances and peak speed figures. An efficent trip is just a clear trip in a race where the pace dynamics didn't work against the runner.

If you can identify a legit track bias ... horses who run races with a most efficent trip and are aided by a path or speed bias at the same time ... they make sensational bet againsts. Betfair tip #1.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by dagolfer33

Doug, can you do a video showing us how to make a cake like that? Maybe add some some hawt half-naked chicks and call it "Cake Whores."

I couldn't believe how good tasting that cake turned out. But, I'll leave the baking videos to people who cook.

I don't cook.

My girlfriend loves to see the human being side of me...so I thought it would be a great idea to bake her birthday cake myself while she watched me stumble and bumble like a fucl< up trying to make it.

I broke two eggs on her kitchen floor ... so she had to jump in and handle breaking the eggs and putting them in with the batter... but everything else was me.

[Indian Charlie]

Savantore strikes again.

[Calzone Lord]

One of the greatest things I've ever done is recently changing the way my playbook works for finding an edge. The handicapping methods I use for finding an edge are the same as ever...and not all that different from a lot of other people.

The method I've now been using to find bet-backs is like the modern Oregon Ducks offense.

The method I always used before is like the Woody Hayes "3 yards and a cloud of dust" offense from the 1960's minus the forward pass.

I'm watching races from virtually every track -- but I'm only watching the most insanely extreme-run races. Every week, I have at least a horse or two from almost every single track in the country I am salivating over...sometimes as many as a dozen in a week from one track if I think a big track bias is in play.

You can only watch and study so many races a week ... so being able to identify which races to watch and study before you watch them is more important than anything else. Over the last month or two, I even have the ability to identify turf races to watch now. Before, I had to ignore all turf races and could never watch any of them...even though they are the best type of races for trip handicapping.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

One of the greatest things I've ever done is recently changing the way my playbook works for finding an edge. The handicapping methods I use for finding an edge are the same as ever...and not all that different from a lot of other people.

The method I've now been using to find bet-backs is like the modern Oregon Ducks offense.

The method I always used before is like the Woody Hayes "3 yards and a cloud of dust" offense from the 1960's minus the forward pass.

I'm watching races from virtually every track -- but I'm only watching the most insanely extreme-run races. Every week, I have at least a horse or two from almost every single track in the country I am salivating over...sometimes as many as a dozen in a week from one track if I think a big track bias is in play.

You can only watch and study so many races a week ... so being able to identify which races to watch and study before you watch them is more important than anything else. Over the last month or two, I even have the ability to identify turf races to watch now. Before, I had to ignore all turf races and could never watch any of them...even though they are the best type of races for trip handicapping.

If you have time to look at the 6th at SA today I'd like to know what your opinion is on the Blue North run Dec. 30th in which four contenders return in todays 6 1/2 furlong sprint.

June Cleaver is the horse I'm most interested in. The 6-1 morning line seems a bit of an underlay to me.

[asudevil]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

If you have time to look at the 6th at SA today I'd like to know what your opinion is on the Blue North run Dec. 30th in which four contenders return in todays 6 1/2 furlong sprint.

June Cleaver is the horse I'm most interested in. The 6-1 morning line seems a bit of an underlay to me.

M.A. Ewing. Love that lady! Old school owner/trainer.