Derby Trail Forums

Go Back   Derby Trail Forums > Main Forum > The Paddock
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 04-27-2025, 12:34 PM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is online now
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,740
Default Baffert loaded with Derby Day starters

__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 04-27-2025, 12:37 PM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is online now
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,740
Default

Never mind Derby, though Rodriguez has looked terrific since arriving, Baffert has some serious firepower set for Saturday with Goal Oriented perhaps the most intriguing. His MDN the day after Santa Anita Derby was pretty stunning and he's only going to better going longer. Nysos return is highly anticipated. Thought Madaket Road work really well here the other day..
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 04-28-2025, 11:52 AM
moses's Avatar
moses moses is offline
Oriental Park
 
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 3,710
Default

I’ve got a question about Rodriguez and the Wood. Maybe someone who understands DRF more can explain.

DRF lists the Wood as favoring closers with the C designation. My recollection of that race was that Rodriguez got a largely uncontested lead. Watching it again, Captain Cook pressed him a bit but the fractions don’t seem crazy fast. The timeform pace figures were fast for the first 1/4 and moderately fast for the remaining fractions.

That day, Aqueduct had 6/13 races where the winner went wire to wire. Another 5 of the winners were close to the pace. I don’t know if there was any track bias but it certainly seems like Rodriguez wasn’t running against a bias of any sort.

Really questioning that C designation. And maybe this question is more about Grande than Rodriguez. I don’t like the pace scenario for Rodriguez in the Derby but seems like Grande’s Wood performance might have been a pretty good one.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 04-29-2025, 03:25 PM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
Jerome Park
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 9,938
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by moses View Post
I’ve got a question about Rodriguez and the Wood. Maybe someone who understands DRF more can explain.

DRF lists the Wood as favoring closers with the C designation. My recollection of that race was that Rodriguez got a largely uncontested lead. Watching it again, Captain Cook pressed him a bit but the fractions don’t seem crazy fast. The timeform pace figures were fast for the first 1/4 and moderately fast for the remaining fractions.

That day, Aqueduct had 6/13 races where the winner went wire to wire. Another 5 of the winners were close to the pace. I don’t know if there was any track bias but it certainly seems like Rodriguez wasn’t running against a bias of any sort.

Really questioning that C designation. And maybe this question is more about Grande than Rodriguez. I don’t like the pace scenario for Rodriguez in the Derby but seems like Grande’s Wood performance might have been a pretty good one.
That rating system, IMO, is a disgrace, and often misleading, as you are clearly pointing out here. Here's what I wrote for the day in Track Trends..."While the rail was good, though no discernable advantage, and speed did well in some races, overall the track played fairly with a mix of successful running styles."

They may claim that it's more about the flow of that specific race. However, that's completely untrue about that race. I would ignore that rating.
__________________
Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 04-29-2025, 03:31 PM
moses's Avatar
moses moses is offline
Oriental Park
 
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 3,710
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind View Post
That rating system, IMO, is a disgrace, and often misleading, as you are clearly pointing out here. Here's what I wrote for the day in Track Trends..."While the rail was good, though no discernable advantage, and speed did well in some races, overall the track played fairly with a mix of successful running styles."

They may claim that it's more about the flow of that specific race. However, that's completely untrue about that race. I would ignore that rating.
Thanks Andy. Glad to get some confirmation of my thoughts on that.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 04-30-2025, 03:40 PM
richard burch's Avatar
richard burch richard burch is offline
Churchill Downs
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: new jersey
Posts: 1,752
Default

Rodriguez is a horse you cant leave off the underside of a ticket but probably won't win.
__________________
Support your local Re-run or horse rescue organization.
https://www.rerunottb.com/:)
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 06:03 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.