Form has gone out the window . . . or

[DonGuido]

maybe it's just me? Upets all over the cards on a large majority of races for cards going back weeks if not months. 80-1 shot coming in 2nd today at the Florida Derby for example. Wonder if anybody had him in their Pick 6?

Are the odds makers smoking something, are the bettors whacked out, "does anybody really know what time it is . . . does anybody care" Chicago. Our points scores have been pathetically lower than I can ever remember in the past years.

Not that any of this really matters in the big picture of life but still . . . something is very different this year, so far anyway . . . or is just me???

[cal828]

To be honest, I don't think it's all that unusual. Frustrating for sure and I sympathize with you, but I think it's pretty typical of horse racing. I think Miz Ruffian has the right idea. The rest of us try to make it a reasonable logical thing, but it just isn't and we refuse to accept it and keep on doing the same things (which is how some people define insanity.)

Really, I think there are parts of handicapping that are logical and parts that are not. The problem is figuring out which is which.

[JolyB]

I don't think that the handicapping world has shifted on its axis. There have been perhaps a few more perplexing results than normal, but these things average out over time.

On today's card, there were a number of fairly predictable results and a couple that were complete headscratchers. Identifier in the Hal's Hope was one of them. Even more baffling was the 4th placed finisher in that race who went off at 128-1. The 2nd place finisher in the Derby ran an incredibly brave race - ran much better than he looked on paper.

Year in, year out post time favorites tend to win just about 33-35% of the time, depending upon the size of the field. I think that's about what we have been seeing - today was a bit under that, but the fields were very competitive so that is no surprise. I felt that the ML was somewhat off today, with a number of 8-1 or 10-1 choices in the ML in fact going off quite a bit lower than that. The bettors seem to get it right more often than the linemaker.

There are always going to be results that make no sense and horses that on paper should win but find a way to get beaten. I guess that's why successful handicappers always seek value in their plays, knowing that they have to get a good price when they win, because they are going to lose many more times than they win. The trick is winning often enough at a good price to overcome the #$%&* takeout.

[Real Quiet]

I have always believed in the theory of chaos. If the favorite is going to win a certain percentage of the time you have to find overlays underneath. Fact of the matter is I cannot pick winners and make a profit. Ruffian and Roaming can because they are not swayed by the odds.
On another tangent will there be any tracks left running?

[cal828]

Originally Posted by Real Quiet

I have always believed in the theory of chaos. If the favorite is going to win a certain percentage of the time you have to find overlays underneath. Fact of the matter is I cannot pick winners and make a profit. Ruffian and Roaming can because they are not swayed by the odds.
On another tangent will there be any tracks left running?

Looks like Oaklawn will keep running unless things get a whole lot worse here. I really don't know what the number of Covid 19 cases are here at the moment.

I think you are right in your observation about finding overlays underneath. I have thought that for the last 3 or 4 contests, but like a lot of other people can't seem to break out of my comfort zone so resort to my usual type of play or something totally ridiculous like a Super High 5, which I really didn't intend to play until I saw all the scratches. I still think a SH5 can be hit in a smaller field like 8 or 9 horses, but not 12.

[cal828]

419 cases in the whole state with 26 deaths which is probably a pretty small number compared to other places I'm guessing. Hard to tell whether Oaklawn will continue.

[Alli]

Don't mean to be a Debbie Downer, but I read an article saying that if your number of cases divided by the number of those tested is above 6-7%, you can be sure that there are a lot more people walking around with the virus. Virginia has 890 cases with 10609 tests, which would work out to 8.3%. Arkansas has 421 with 3448 tested. That's 12.2% Be careful out there.

[cal828]

Originally Posted by Alli

Don't mean to be a Debbie Downer, but I read an article saying that if your number of cases divided by the number of those tested is above 6-7%, you can be sure that there are a lot more people walking around with the virus. Virginia has 890 cases with 10609 tests, which would work out to 8.3%. Arkansas has 421 with 3448 tested. That's 12.2% Be careful out there.

I'm sure you're right. Without universal testing no way to have an accurate picture and unfortunately there aren't enough tests or masks or ventilators or anything else needed to fight the virus. I am pretty much a hermit anyway and haven't been out except to get groceries and pick-up my meds and to try to score the ever elusive TP. Was beginning to think the President was going to have to come down and throw us some, but that possibility was pretty remote since we don't represent a lot of votes out here in redneckville. I just returned from town on a trip to get my meds and stopped off at WalMart and actually found a few rolls of TP. I couldn't believe it. Kinda felt like I was stealing something. Looked around to see if anybody else saw it too and was going to offer to fight me for it, but there were no takers so I grabbed it and got out of there as fast as I could.

[Alli]

Glad you scored on the TP...luckily, I got a huge pack at Costco more than a month ago....since it's just me, I don't have to buy often. I'm really upset, though, that my neighbors are having a party! I don't understand what people are thinking!

[cal828]

No me neither. Some of those people that died here were thought to be the result of having attended church. Seems to be a bit of irony there that people would die shortly after efforts that were no doubt intended to help them to make it to the hereafter. I guess there will always be those contrarians that don't take things seriously and unfortunately there are those that just don't trust anyone or anything except their own feelings about things. Shakespeare I think that said "to thine own self be true"? Maybe so, but for the time being, I trust Doctor Fauci.

[Alli]

I'm with you there, Cal.

[Real Quiet]

I agree too. It's going to be bad but as Dr. Fauci said we have to make efforts so we don't face the "worst case"scenario.

[cal828]

CNN saying that the medical people told the President that the death toll could be more than 2 million, if people returned to normal activities too soon. If all of us practice social distancing the death toll is estimated at 100,000. In his news conference today, he did an about face on his comments about trying to get people to return to work by Easter. I think the President gets some pretty crazy ideas from the usual sources and then the medical people have to talk him down. Thank God for them. The nation owes them a lot.

[RUFFIAN]

SHOULD THE UNTHINKABLE HAPPEN WITH NO TRACKS RUNNING

WILL WE MAINTAIN THIS FORUM FOR OPEN DISCUSSIONS
PERHAPS ON ANY TOPIC WE WISH TO PRESENT & SHARE

HOPEFULLY YES ~

WE'VE COME SO FAR FOR SO LONG TOGETHER
WE CANNOT LET A VIRUS COME BETWEEN US

PERHAPS IF WE HAVE NO RACING TO TALK ABOUT
~ THOSE OF US WHO HAVE A HORSE ~
COULD SHARE ANECDOTES
OR ANYTHING HORSE RELATED

[cal828]

I imagine that we will continue to discuss things although there may be those that think some of us, that will go unnamed might be a little too loquacious. I am of course talking about myself here. Don't know why I tend to go overboard with my opinions on here. Maybe it's because I live alone and don't have much contact with others of the human kind or maybe it's simply that regular face to face conversation moves too quickly for me to keep up and with the internet I have more opportunity to organize my thoughts. If you met me in person, you probably would think me very reticent. Even though I want to continue to talk here about whatever the subject is, my fervent wish is that none of us or our loved ones will succumb to this virus.

As for racing shutting down, I have been thinking about that all morning and whether it is realistic to think that Oaklawn and other venues will be able to continue on in the face of this virus. The virus has proceeded here a little slower than other places, but sounds to me like it might be peaking about the time proposed for the Arkansas Derby. Hope I am wrong about that or on second thought maybe that would be good. Not that I want to miss the Derby, but hopefully, that might mean that our long nightmare is coming to an end?

[RUFFIAN]

CAL CHIRPS
“...there may be those that think some of us, that will go unnamed might be a little too loquacious. I am of course talking about myself here. ”
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=

OMG I WAS ASSUMING YOU MEANT ME!
MY MIDDLE NAME IS = LOQUACIOUS!

One time I got laryngitis with no voice at all
And it hit all the headlines in the major newspapers

NATIONAL HOLIDAY = LADY CAT LOST VOICE!

[cal828]

I laughed.

[Real Quiet]

You reticent Cal? If so keep it up. Totally enjoy reading your posts. Real Quiet is not just a screen name. It's a fact.

[cal828]

Thanks.

[DonGuido]

Hey Ruff, as obtuse as you are in a friendly, kindly, quirky way you are much easier to understand than the man sitting in the Oval office . That's as political as I will get here. Some who are friends of mine on FB I'm sure are tired of me defending the sanity of most intelligent people re: the national leadership we don't have.

Stay safe all and follow the rules set forth by your local government leaders. This will pass, hopefully sooner than later.