Yikes

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Projected Beyer calculated yet?

It's very hard to say because there were no other 1 1/8 races. I guess you can look at the 1 1/16 races and say he ran around 104 but it feels like a guess. He beat the clunk up Delightful Kiss by over 10 lengths and that one should have run 85-90 which makes somewhere around 105 seem close.

[somerfrost]

Man, the #5 horse almost wiped out half the field at the start but replay showed nobody seriously compromised. Yes Curlin was impressive...lots going against him, he'll have to be very special to win the Derby.

[byalip]

No matter what, Curlin finally jump started this Derby Train...it was just chugging along before the AK Derby.

He made a VERY impressive start....unfazed by all the positioning after the break, and he took command of his path without incident.

[ateamstupid]

As much as I like Curlin, we all must take into account that (a.) that was a very weak field, once Deadly Dealer packed it in, there was nobody to beat and (b.) from what I've read (the Bykster wrote something great about this), the end of the stretch at OP is on a slight decline, so don't go nuts over the sub-:12 final furlong. If you remember, Afleet Alex ran a sub-:12 final furlong in the AR Derby two years ago in a very similar effort. Not to say that if Curlin turns out to be Afleet Alex, it'll be a disappointment, just that the under :12 eighth isn't unheard of.

With that said, it was a visually impressive performance and the sky looks to be the limit with this colt.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by byalip

No matter what, Curlin finally jump started this Derby Train...it was just chugging along before the AK Derby.

He made a VERY impressive start....unfazed by all the positioning after the break, and he took command of his path without incident.

I liked that he was used a bit early to insure Deadly Dealer couldn't get right to the rail on the first turn.

He's the biggest $3 million steal ever.

[MarkyD]

people are pounding Curlin right now.
He was 12-1 before the race. he is down to 5-1.
He was 6-1 10 minutes ago.


http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2007/future-wager-odds

[Payson Dave]

It was a visually impressive finish...he drew off quite nicely

[miraja2]

It was officially the largest winning margin in the histroy of the Arkansas Derby.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I guess if a knock can be found on Curlin's performance....he was up close to a tremendously slow early pace.

There were two MSW races earlier on in the card.

*Wire-to-wire winner of the 1st Mike's Honey Bunny, a NY bred filly who never was on the lead at any point in her career, ran an opening quarter in 23.44

* In the other MSW race, Cantallbechiefs, who also has never sniffed the early lead in his career, ran an opening quarter in 23.50.

Both faster than the 23.56 pace set by Deadly Dealer. To get a better idea how slow the pace was....Slew By Slew---who rallied from DEAD LAST around two-turns, in each of his last two starts, was the horse in 2nd pressing the pace.

So---the nice trip and slow pace, which really helped Deadly Dealer even more than Curlin, should be taken into account when you factor in the sparkling final furlong....and also, the last 1/8th at Oaklawn Park historically seems to yield faster times than other tracks do.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It's very hard to say because there were no other 1 1/8 races. I guess you can look at the 1 1/16 races and say he ran around 104 but it feels like a guess. He beat the clunk up Delightful Kiss by over 10 lengths and that one should have run 85-90 which makes somewhere around 105 seem close.

thanks

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

In a year where no 3YO has been impressive Curlin stands out. I'm not saying I love his chances in the Derby but he simply cannot be ignored at this point.

i agree--certainly was the more impressive of the two big 3 yo winners today. but not too sure what to think of the bluegrass, they absolutely crawled early in that one.
but i don't love his chances derby day either. at this point, i don't really like any of them! but someone has to win it.

question is who?

[pdrift1]

i think curlin could be that good! but i think when street sense hits that churchill dirt instead of the poly, he flys- this race didn't take much outa him. i think hes sitting on a big one. him or any given saturday are going to be wearing roses on the 5th. if its a closer i like circular quay

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i agree--certainly was the more impressive of the two big 3 yo winners today. but not too sure what to think of the bluegrass, they absolutely crawled early in that one.
but i don't love his chances derby day either. at this point, i don't really like any of them! but someone has to win it.

question is who?

I guess I haven't commited yet, but I'm probably going to bet Any Given Saturday in the race----and I feel almost embarassed admitting it. While he has the absolute right style for the race, and has run what I believe to be his career best race over the track, he's really not much horse at all. Hopefully he is forgotten, and doesn't attract either JRV or Gomez, so I can get a better price.

Actually, if you compare his 3yo races with Giacomo's 3yo races, leading into the Derby, I think Giacomo's races were clearly a little better.

[Danzig]

i'm beginning to like quays chances more and more. he likes churchill, he had some trouble, in one race, rebounded with a win in his most recent. he's the one i keep coming back to--after the bluegrass, i'm not sure i like any of those horses in that race-all it did (as the bluegrass usually does) is muddy the waters.

still a few weeks left, works at churchill, post positions to draw, entries....plenty of time for everyone to make their final decision(s????).

[Mortimer]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I guess I haven't commited yet, but I'm probably going to bet Any Given Saturday in the race----and I feel almost embarassed admitting it. While he has the absolute right style for the race, and has run what I believe to be his career best race over the track, he's really not much horse at all. Hopefully he is forgotten, and doesn't attract either JRV or Gomez, so I can get a better price.

Actually, if you compare his 3yo races with Giacomo's 3yo races, leading into the Derby, I think Giacomo's races were clearly a little better.

I don't think you're capable of being embarrassed.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Astute point Morty.

[pdrift1]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i'm beginning to like quays chances more and more. he likes churchill, he had some trouble, in one race, rebounded with a win in his most recent. he's the one i keep coming back to--after the bluegrass, i'm not sure i like any of those horses in that race-all it did (as the bluegrass usually does) is muddy the waters.

still a few weeks left, works at churchill, post positions to draw, entries....plenty of time for everyone to make their final decision(s????).

if its a deep closer i like quay also danzig. but i'd prefer a stalker like anygivensat or curlin, and street sense i think might be setting just right

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by pdrift1

if its a deep closer i like quay also danzig. but i'd prefer a stalker like anygivensat or curlin, and street sense i think might be setting just right

really? i like street sense less after today. sigh


three weeks away, 21 days to figure it all out. or die trying!

[whodey17]

I have loved Curlin ever since I saw Bejarano ride him in his maiden in Florida. I was not happy to see him taken from Pitts because I am a HUGE Pitts fan. However, in Curlin's 3 starts he has received perfect trips, perfect pace and very suspect fields. I doubt he will go off as the fav in the Derby. That fav status will go to SS. I would not be shocked to see Curling win, but I would be surprised.

[miraja2]

Right now I think Curlin, Circular Quay, and Street Sense are the three best horses.
At this point though, handicapping the race is virtually impossible. You can't really handicap a race until you can visualize it, and in a 20 horse field, you can't visualize it until you know the post positions. There are a lot of horses this year that are pretty close in terms of ability. If one of them draws post 19 or 20, maybe you toss them.
We also don't have any idea really what the pace is going to look like. Could some horse sneak in out of the Lexington that has no chance of winning but could affect the pace scenario? Perhaps.
Will there be anymore drop-outs (like Notional)?
We just don't know.
I find it best to wait until the day before the Derby to come up with my bets. Otherwise you run the risk of becoming married to a wager that no longer makes sense by post time. Anyone who has already determined how they are going to wager on the derby is....in my opinon....seriously compromising their chances of cashing. Too many good handicappers get derby fever and let it overwhelm their usual good sense. I say, print out the past performances on Friday....study them like you always would.....watch the appropriate race replays, and place your wager accordingly.