Rule of Thumb for wagering at Keeneland

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by oracle80

With A City's form on dirt was absolutely dreadful, and I mean woeful. It wasn't like he had ever been even remotely competitive in anything. He failed in claimers.
Seaside Retreat was just about as bad. When they ran 1-2 I said ok, thats it.
You devils advocate guys are piss poor. You can make that argument in hindsight with any horse.
So how much did you guys have on him? You musta made one hell of a killing because if you can justify him winning that race(of course now its in hindsight, as usual) then you should have had a bundle on him at those odds.
WHo exactly is bull****ting who here?
You guys wanna get on me because I think an impossible horse won and admit it. Then you guys wanna tell me how he figured. Gee, how much did you guys have on him then? If you didn't bet him then its pretty obvious who the bull****ters are.

I liked Silent Times so I didn't do too well in that race.

With a City actually broke his maiden on dirt and then ran 3rd and 4th in two stakes races before falling to the claiming ranks. He then won two in a row on the turf before flopping on the polytrack first race back off the layoff. I've said twice now that I think turf horses do well on polytrack and that is the only big difference in the surface. I'm yet to see an established dirt horse go to polytrack and not take to it. Lawyer Ron was not established when he ran on the poly and Lemons Forever has a first and a third in two starts on poly and they are running her in a G1 against older mares on it this weekend so her connections certainly don't think she has a problem with it.

Originally Posted by eurobounce

Well that is what I saw. She chased everyone as she broke last. She had a nice trip around the outside. The first horse she chased was Cappozenne and then Sabatinni. But a horse who breaks 9th and ends of being 3rd losing by 1 length tells me she didnt spin her wheels. Now, again----how can a horse who spins her wheels finish 3rd when breaking last?

When the race is VERY slow, and the horse though breaking last is given a good pace to close on because horses hook up on the front end, and in addition gets a clean trip with no steadying or blocking the whole way adn is put into a HARD drive being asked for everything she has on the turn and is beaten by horses who PASS HER FROM BEHIND. You grasp this?
You are fraudulently trying to represent this is a situation where she was closing on horses she couldnt quite get to, rather than she was behind a duel and got a great trip and got swallowed up by horses who passed her from behind.
The race got an awful fig too.
Other than that it was a "stellar performance".

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I liked Silent Times so I didn't do too well in that race.

With a City actually broke his maiden on dirt and then ran 3rd and 4th in two stakes races before falling to the claiming ranks. He then won two in a row on the turf before flopping on the polytrack first race back off the layoff. I've said twice now that I think turf horses do well on polytrack and that is the only big difference in the surface. I'm yet to see an established dirt horse go to polytrack and not take to it. Lawyer Ron was not established when he ran on the poly and Lemons Forever has a first and a third in two starts on poly and they are running her in a G1 against older mares on it this weekend so her connections certainly don't think she has a problem with it.

Ok so basically you chastised me for saying I thought he was impossible and didn't bet him, and you made a case on how he could havebeen played, yet didn't bet a nickel on him at a zillion to one.
I understand.

Originally Posted by oracle80

When the race is VERY slow, and the horse though breaking last is given a good pace to close on because horses hook up on the front end, and in addition gets a clean trip with no steadying or blocking the whole way adn is put into a HARD drive being asked for everything she has on the turn and is beaten by horses who PASS HER FROM BEHIND. You grasp this?
You are fraudulently trying to represent this is a situation where she was closing on horses she couldnt quite get to, rather than she was behind a duel and got a great trip and got swallowed up by horses who passed her from behind.
The race got an awful fig too.
Other than that it was a "stellar performance".

Heaven forbid he read a chart call but it's ok for you to speak of the fig? Unbelievable.

Originally Posted by oracle80

When the race is VERY slow, and the horse though breaking last is given a good pace to close on because horses hook up on the front end, and in addition gets a clean trip with no steadying or blocking the whole way adn is put into a HARD drive being asked for everything she has on the turn and is beaten by horses who PASS HER FROM BEHIND. You grasp this?
You are fraudulently trying to represent this is a situation where she was closing on horses she couldnt quite get to, rather than she was behind a duel and got a great trip and got swallowed up by horses who passed her from behind.
The race got an awful fig too.
Other than that it was a "stellar performance".

She actually bumped Sabatini so she didnt get a clean trip. And I dont consider the horses hooking up front playing into the equation. Point is, she closed nicely to get 3rd beaten by 1 length. That was a very nice performance.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Ok so basically you chastised me for saying I thought he was impossible and didn't bet him, and you made a case on how he could havebeen played, yet didn't bet a nickel on him at a zillion to one.
I understand.

You just said that you completely gave up on handicapping polytrack because of With a City winning the Lane's End. I didn't bet him but can see how someone could have and considering the other horses in the field I don't think it was that unusual of an outcome. If I swore off betting every track where a field of mediocre 2yos or 3yos met in a stakes race and a longshot won I'd be out of tracks to play by now.

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

You just said that you completely gave up on handicapping polytrack because of With a City winning the Lane's End. I didn't bet him but can see how someone could have and considering the other horses in the field I don't think it was that unusual of an outcome. If I swore off betting every track where a field of mediocre 2yos or 3yos met in a stakes race and a longshot won I'd be out of tracks to play by now.

I never said I " gave up" betting polytrack and you guys spend a lotta time trying to lie about what I said.
I said it was my first and last time betting it.
I still try and handicap it, doesn't everyone? I still watch the races run there and still try and make sense of them.
I had the same view on Polytrack this past March when they ran those races as I did when it opened last fall and ran this past winter.
That was the only day I gave playing it a shot, mostly because of the big fields and stakes races that were being run.
I took a swing that day, didn't like what I saw, and after the With A City race, decided that I had the right idea in the first place.
You may have noted I said I also had been watching Poly in Woodbine(on tv). I still handicap the races and try to make sense of it, its just that up to this point they don't make sense.
You can handicap and follow something without BETTING on it. Its prudent to still pay attention to races being run there. But it won't get my gambling dollar.

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

Heaven forbid he read a chart call but it's ok for you to speak of the fig? Unbelievable.

Is that what you are reduced to? I didn't quote the fig, I don't recall it exactly, but I recall it being slow. And I didn't have to "look it up".

Originally Posted by oracle80

I never said I " gave up" betting polytrack and you guys spend a lotta time trying to lie about what I said.
I said it was my first and last time betting it.
I still try and handicap it, doesn't everyone? I still watch the races run there and still try and make sense of them.
I had the same view on Polytrack this past March when they ran those races as I did when it opened last fall and ran this past winter.
That was the only day I gave playing it a shot, mostly because of the big fields and stakes races that were being run.
I took a swing that day, didn't like what I saw, and after the With A City race, decided that I had the right idea in the first place.
You may have noted I said I also had been watching Poly in Woodbine(on tv). I still handicap the races and try to make sense of it, its just that up to this point they don't make sense.
You can handicap and follow something without BETTING on it. Its prudent to still pay attention to races being run there. But it won't get my gambling dollar.

I agree with this 100%. I do the same thing with PolyTrack. I watch and watch and watch and handicap but dont bet. I only placed maybe 4 bets all meet at Turfway. Of course, I did tell you guys about Sunday Blessing $13.60. But I didnt share anything else because I wasnt even 50% confident. But I do the same as Oracle.

[Cajungator26]

It'd be nice if you all could BE NICE!

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Then WIth A City won, and that was enough polytrack for me thanks!!!

Originally Posted by oracle80

I never said I " gave up" betting polytrack and you guys spend a lotta time trying to lie about what I said.

Sure sounds like you said you gave up betting polytrack to me.

Originally Posted by oracle80

Is that what you are reduced to? I didn't quote the fig, I don't recall it exactly, but I recall it being slow. And I didn't have to "look it up".

So you accuse euro of not watching the race and give him crap for using a chart yet it's ok for you to recall the fig was slow? Don't you see the hypocrisy? You demand all of this evidence from everyone yet you're the naysayer and it's your duty to prove the surface is unbettable. You haven't. Get over it. You can't always be right. Don't be so condescending and elitist about the subject. You come off as a petty bastard.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

So you accuse euro of not watching the race and give him crap for using a chart yet it's ok for you to recall the fig was slow? Don't you see the hypocrisy? You demand all of this evidence from everyone yet you're the naysayer and it's your duty to prove the surface is unbettable. You haven't. Get over it. You can't always be right. Don't be so condescending and elitist about the subject. You come off as a petty bastard.

Maybe I need to repeat my post, Listerfiend. LMFAO!

BE NICE!

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Sure sounds like you said you gave up betting polytrack to me.

Thats like saying a guy who smoked one cigarette "gave up smoking" when he didn't smoke again after that!! LOL!!!!!

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

So you accuse euro of not watching the race and give him crap for using a chart yet it's ok for you to recall the fig was slow? Don't you see the hypocrisy? You demand all of this evidence from everyone yet you're the naysayer and it's your duty to prove the surface is unbettable. You haven't. Get over it. You can't always be right. Don't be so condescending and elitist about the subject. You come off as a petty bastard.

Talk about the pot calling the kettle black.
I said its unbettable for ME!!!! I also said that Joel's theory of taking 5-1 or better on this surface might be great idea and proposed taking 10-1.
You'll never beat me on any horse knowledge in any area, never, ever.
But you are a funny guy. Don't take it personally.

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Maybe I need to repeat my post, Listerfiend. LMFAO!

BE NICE!

Listerfiend hasn't been doing his job. The river will run red with blood if he continues to slack on the job.

Originally Posted by oracle80

Talk about the pot calling the kettle black.
I said its unbettable for ME!!!! I also said that Joel's theory of taking 5-1 or better on this surface might be great idea and proposed taking 10-1.
You'll never beat me on any horse knowledge in any area, never, ever.
But you are a funny guy. Don't take it personally.

With the full fields of course you should look for value. I thought that was common knowledge? I don't know what I would do without the brilliant advice you two give. It's great that we've got so many professional horsemen such as yourself to let us little people know where we stand.

And they wonder why the sport is dying.

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

With the full fields of course you should look for value. I thought that was common knowledge? I don't know what I would do without the brilliant advice you two give. It's great that we've got so many professional horsemen such as yourself to let us little people know where we stand.

And they wonder why the sport is dying.

Are you really a little person like the chick Shatner's gonna bang on Boston legal? That kinda little?

Oh yeah here's some advice. Bet trainers who have experience training and running horses on polytrack.

You can thank me later for my brilliance.

Sincerely,

Captain Obvious

P.S. Bernardini is a great horse

Originally Posted by oracle80

Are you really a little person like the chick Shatner's gonna bang on Boston legal? That kinda little?

Are you fat from the meds or the food? Or is that pic of you old and you've gone on the Slimfast diet?