5/4: Churchill Downs (145th Derby Day)

[Kasept]

CHURCHILL DOWNS ~ 145TH DERBY DAY


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #12 Gold Standard 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #7 She's Got Moves 6-1 10th
Next Best: #3 Brie's Lucky Charm Late SCR
Exotics Use: #5 Hungry Kitten 12-1 WON ($12.80)


6th: Humana Distaff (G1), F&M-4+, 17f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Spiced Perfection 7-2 4th
Next Best: #7 Marley's Freedom 7-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Amy's Challenge 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Mia Mischief 12-1 WON ($25.00)


7th: Distaff Turf Mile (G2), F&M-4+, 1m-T (Jackpot Single 6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Precieuse 3-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Daddy Is a Legend 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #8 Got Stormy 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Environs 8-1 4th


8th: Churchill Downs (G2), 4+, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #12 Whitmore 4-1 5th
Best Value: #4 Bobby's Wicked One 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Do Share 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Warrior's Club 12-1 6th


P4 Grid:

5: 12 (A), - (B), 3-7 (C)
6: 2-5-7 (A), 3-4 (B), - (C)
7: 5-6-8-9 (A), 3-7-10 (B), - (C)
8: 1-4-7-12 (A), - (B), 6-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x5x7x4 = 140 x .50 = $70
All A's: 1x3x4x4 = 48 x .50 = $24


9th: American Turf (G2), 3yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #12 The Black Album 12-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Casa Creed 6-1 9th
Exotics Use: #2 Social Paranoia 10-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Marquee Prince 10-1 11th


10th: Pat Day Mile (G3), 3yo, 1m (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Instagrand 6-5 8th
Best Value: #13 Hog Creek Hustle 30-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Mr. Money 12-1 WON ($17.00)
Exotics Use: #14 Last Judgement 5-1 9th
Super Add: #3 Dream Maker 15-1 3rd


11th: Old Forester Turf Classic (G1), 4+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #12 Bricks and Mortar 5-2 WON ($4.20)
Best Value: #6 Clyde's Image 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Raging Bull 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Breaking the Rules 15-1 13th


12th: Kentucky Derby (G1), 3yo, 10f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Improbable 6-1 (Closed 4.00-1) 5th
Next Best: #16 Game Winner 5-1 (Closed 6.80-1) 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Maximum Security 10-1 (Closed 4.50-1) WON-DQ'd to 17th
Super Add: #14 Win Win Win 15-1 (Closed 16.80-1) 10th
Hi-5 Play: #8 Tacitus 10-1 (Closed 5.80-1) 4th


P4 Grid:

8: 1-4-7-12 (A), - (B), 6-8 (C)
9: 7-12 (A), 2-4 (B), 3-10 (C)
10: 10-13 (A), 7-14 (B), 3-8 (C)
11: 12 (A), - (B), 2-6 (C)
12: 5-7-16 (A), - (B), 8-14-17 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x4x1x3 = 192 x .50 = $96
All A's: 4x2x2x1x3 = 48 x .50 = $24


P4 Grid:

9: 2-4-7-12 (A), 3-8-10-13 (B), - (C)
10: 10-13 (A), 7-14 (B), 3-8 (C)
11: 12 (A), - (B), 2-6 (C)
12: 5-7-8-14-16 (A), - (B), 1-3-17 (C)

Simple (A+B): 8x4x1x5 = 160 x .50 = $80
All A's: 4x2x1x5 = 40 x .50 = $20


13th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f (DD)

Best Value: #2 Get the Prize 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Bandon Woods 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Admire 10-1 8th
Super Add: #11 Hoffa's Union 4-1 6th


14th: MSW, 3+, 9f

Best Value: #5 Tony Small 12-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Ranger Up Late SCR
Exotics Use: #7 Feliz the Fox 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Rotation 4-1 WON ($9.00)


P5 Grid:

10: 10-13 (A), 7-14 (B), 3-8 (C)
11: 12 (A), - (B), 2-6 (C)
12: 5-7-16 (A), 8-14 (B), 1-3-17 (C)
13: 2-10 (A), - (B), 6-11 (C)
14: 1-2-5-7 (A), - (B), 10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x5x2x4 = 160 x .50 = $80
All A's: 2x1x3x2x4 = 48 x .50 = $24


P4 Grid:

11: 12 (A), 2-6 (B), 1-8 (C)
12: 5-7-16 (A), 8-14 (B), 1-3-17 (C)
13: 2-10 (A), - (B), 6-11 (C)
14: 2-5 (A), 1-7 (B), 10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x5x2x4 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 3x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18


Good luck!
Steve