Belmont Wednesday July 8 Analysis

[Kitan]

Race 1:
#1 Fortunate Sky: Lone dirt race with Lasix was his best on any surface in his short career. Back down to the tag of that race.
#4 Cat's Landing: If you can get past his last he'll be an overlay.
#7 Tharyic
#3 Touch of Paradise

Race 2:
#3 Kiss Cat: I know he's 2/28 (0/20 fast dirt) and lost his last even though he got the jump, but in a race like this where there are so many questions I'm holding on to the fact that JO stays here when he does ride quite a bit for Nevin.
#1 Underhill Drive: Won twice for 25k and Bruce has put three works into her, but he only has average numbers with huge tag slices. Should win but can't trust the price.
#4 D'Kennesaw Cat: Field at Penn couldn't have been much and it was a weak bunch when repeating. Not sure why he dropped back so far last out but can expect him to go with Cancel.
#5 Iknewuweretrouble: Louisiana form questionable and Jacobson couldn't move her up. As mentioned above, why is Arroyo riding?

Race 3:
#1 Tetradrachm: There isn't a lot of consistent pace in here and given the way these races have been running he could steal it with the back class.
#2 Ironicus: Had a setback with the scratching in the Poker, running style is opposite of what suits these races, and the inside draw hasn't been great at a mile on the Widener. 2/5 ML is hard to take.
#4 Our Emerald Forest
#8 McIlroy

Race 4:
#6 Energetico: Last race looks terrible on paper but he lost his chance with a slight slip at the start in a race MUCH tougher than this. Won for 32k earlier in the year so not overly concerned with the drop.
#5 Nubin Ridge: Drops down and gets a positive rider switch. Longshot play.
#3 is SCR...
#1 Frazil

Race 5:
Throw darts.

Race 6:
#3 Lady Daphne: Finished greenly after a wide trip in debut. Given nearly 11 months off for 3yo reappearance but Chad does more than OK with these types. Dam was also OK on the turf.
#9 Hottie Potati: Checked out at the start and just given racing experience after that. Dam was all grass and Big Brown has done alright as a turf sire.
#11 Animal Appeal: Set a blitzing pace given the wet conditions and battled on well to just get beaten late in grass debut. Up to MSW but don't ignore connections which have been hot together recently.
#6 Kacy Lauren
#4 really had no excuse to lose last time out in what I felt wasn't a strong race. 23-1 winner came out on Sunday and was well beaten as the fav.

Race 7:
#7 River Dale: Last was the best of any in here and he never really got a clear path in the stretch. Will be lucky to see the 12-1 ML hold.
#5 Abdaar: Just missed in route debut to a runner who ran well this past weekend. Just concerned he took little action in either start.
#9 Indian Trail: Pletcher 2/38 with 3yo second time starters who finished out of the money first time out and are now routing in a MSW after a sprint debut. Obscure, but it is a poor stat for him.
#8 Cozmic One: Did no running during a hyped debut. Looks like he's taken to this surface much better, however. Check him out on the track.
LATE EDIT: Using #2 instead of #8.

Race 8:
#7 Enjoy the Show: Taken to the turf and Toner does exceptionally well with these cutbacks.
#5 Sleeping Giant
#2 White Bay
#12 Lone Trader

Race 9:
#10 Nejma: Two turf races, without Lasix, with awkward trips in MSW make her more than competitive here. Won for 40k so I'm not worried that she was in for 16k with the ice cold Bruce Brown.
#11 Dot Product
#2 Julie D
#5 Miss Loretta Lynn


$0.60 Pick Five
Race 1: 1, 4
Race 2: 1, 3
Race 3: 1, 2
Race 4: 5, 6
Race 5: 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 11
$57.60

$0.60 Early Pick Four
Race 2: 1, 3, 4
Race 3: 1, 2, 4
Race 4: 5, 6
Race 5: 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 11
$64.80

$0.60 Late Pick Four
Race 6: 3, 9, 11
Race 7: 2, 5, 7, 9
Race 8: 2, 5, 7
Race 9: 2, 5, 10, 11
$86.40

Good luck!