Interesting Robotic Wagering discussion started by Frank Angst

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by saratogadew

I must be missing something here, but I see crw money as a good thing also. It was stated earlier that most of that money is bet into WPS and exacta pools. In a 10 horse race there is a 10% chance that money is on the horse that I bet. That would mean 90% of the time I am getting extra value on the horse that I bet. Also there are 90 different exacta combinations in a 10 horse field. The chances that their last second big exacta bet is on my combination is very slim, thus giving me extra value. Can someone give me the scenario that crw hurts my wallet on an ongoing basis?

The point is that they're privy to information that you aren't and are able to significantly depress potential payouts with no notice to you. Whether or not they're on "your" play (which will be way more than 10% of the time unless you're just throwing darts, by the way), they're making it immeasurably harder for the individual player to assess and pursue value.

[saratogadew]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

The point is that they're privy to information that you aren't and are able to significantly depress potential payouts with no notice to you. Whether or not they're on "your" play (which will be way more than 10% of the time unless you're just throwing darts, by the way), they're making it immeasurably harder for the individual player to assess and pursue value.

I see your point but when we speak of (They) we are not speaking of a boogeyman behind a black curtain. These are people who have invested a lot of their money into a computer program they believe will help them make profit. If its out there, then we all truly could get access. People use certain programs to bet money lines in sports. The program simulates the game being played 50 thousand times and they lay the money down on the value side. Is this really affecting the guy putting a hundred or even a thousand on the team of their choice. Also, in horse racing, can value be quantified? All perceived value is really just opinion isnt it. One mans overlay is another mans underlay. If ML odds came out on AP at 5-1, 99% of us would bet it double fisted and the line would adjust accordingly. But if ML were set at 4-5, I would say half would think overlay, and half underlay. Value is just an opinion. How do we all feel about bridge jumpers? I put my 10.00 down to show, they plop down the 50K bet on the horse and depress my winnings.
I am a tri and multi-race player most of the time but this is a very, very complex issue as stated earlier. I can see both sides.

[tanner12oz]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

The point is that they're privy to information that you aren't and are able to significantly depress potential payouts with no notice to you. Whether or not they're on "your" play (which will be way more than 10% of the time unless you're just throwing darts, by the way), they're making it immeasurably harder for the individual player to assess and pursue value.

but he could be privy to that info..togadew could crw, you could crw we all could crw..the only thing preventing us is bankroll and technology. This is class warfare imo more then anything illegal or shady.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Just as the exactas pay less than the late probable displayed, they 'should' pay more when unidentified exacta targets come in. But the robotics cover an inordinate amount of potential results and widely depress the prices, yes..



Right. That's the whole question though the working number is 15-20% of total handle and the WPS/exacta pools are their area. And you don't necessarily know where the target is at any particular time. You can gravitate toward tracks like OP and TAM to avoid them or play in pools where their programming is neutered (tris, super, multis).



I'm not an economics guy, but aren't most equity markets less than a level playing field? Isn't there a patently unfair advantage for any whale getting rebates or with players that can punch $1,500 P6 tix over a typical $96 or $244 play? Where is the line between unbalanced and unacceptable? They certainly have an advantage and make it hard(er) for everyone else, but is that reason to exclude them from the pools?

The whole thing is a fascinating debate and emblematic of how complex the game and its' vexing issues are..

I think you are viewing this example from a "one trial" perspective rather than "in the long run". This matters more in a Pick 6 or other low probability wager because the volatility in success is much higher with a lower bankroll, but the net ROI over many trials for an equal player doesn't matter given the bankroll (assuming they are betting the same percentage of their bankroll to equalize the risk of ruin). Example:

Player (a) has a bankroll of $9,600 for the year and bets 100 pick 6's, all for the same $96. He hits 1 out of 100 (1%) for $10,000, for an ROI of +4.167%.

Player (b) has a bankroll of $150,000 for the year and bets 100 pick 6's, all for the same $1500. Because his "skill" is equal to player (a), he hits at the exact proportion to the amount wagered by player (a), so 15.625 of his pick 6's for the year for $10,000 each. His return is 4.167% as well.

The issue is volatility, which on a low probability wager is extremely high even with a large bankroll. Because player (a) wins at a much less frequent rate, it feels like he's a net loser to player (b), but in the long run their percentage returns would converge.

Similar situation: One player bets only even money shots. The other only bets 10-1 shots. Assuming the likelihood that the even money shot is exactly 10x more likely to win any given bet, the only difference in their long term returns would be how effective their selections are. But the paths to that final return would be very different.

[odbaxter]

How big a roller do you have to be to get in on this? I still haven't been able to find computerized access to instantaneously place a last second wager? Should I be approaching the tracks directly?
I would love to know that the 5/2 I'm about to jump on is actually going off at 8/5 and that the 7/2 is going out to 5/1. I'm not going to move the board but if I can bet it at the last second like a robot, I don't need a robot!

[Benny]

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...#disqus_thread


The industry's embrace of computer-robotic wagering through the high rebates required to sustain these players has resulted in a less attractive game for all other horseplayers, according to an expert presenting March 25 at the Association of Racing Commissioners International conference in New Orleans

[Kasept]

Dick Powell happens to be on show today to talk about DWC and the RCI meeting.. Merging this with the good discussion generated by Frank Angst's piece from November.

[odbaxter]

I haven't had a chance to listen to the podcast; any interesting additions to this discussion?