3/30: FL Derby Card/Magna 5

[Kasept]

Day starts early with the Dubai World Cup featuring as good a trio of horses lining up as we've seen in a while. Continues mid-afternoon with the 5 stakes Florida Derby Card at Gulfstream that has added intrigue of a carryover and the last Magna 5 of the 'season'.


GULFSTREAM (7th-12th)

SUPERFECTAS IN ALL..

7th: 44th Orchid H. (Gr. III), F&M-4+, 12f-T (P6, P3, DD)

1. #2 Safari Queen 8-5: With import below, too tough for this group WON
2. #6 Time On 9-5: Grp. II winner in Clement's hands nearly 2 months 4th
A. #5 La Dolce Vida 6-1: Hennig mare loves course, may like trip 3rd
B. #4 Almonsoon 5-1: A.P. Arrow's sister 2/1-1-0 this voyage/lawn 2nd

$2 Exacta 2-4 $13.60
$1 Trifecta Box $22.70
$2 Quad/Superfecta 2-4-5-6 $87.00


8th: 6th Aventura, 3yo, 7f (P3, DD)

1. #8 Street Magician 5-2: Trombetta Street Cry bay Preakness bound WON
2. #2 Green Vegas 3-1: Oliveras STILL winless meet; cuts back with blinks 4th
A. #3 Silver Source 6-1: Pilotti-Fastok bay, former Simon trainee, sits trip
B. #4 Yesbyjimminy 5-1: Respect Plesa immensely; has never run a bad one 2nd

$2 Exacta 8-4 $45.20
$2 Double 2/8 $18.20


9th: 46th Pan American H. (Gr. III), 4+, 12f-T (P4, P3, DD)

1. #7 Revved Up 6-1: Last better than it looks off break; Edgar knows him
2. #3 Jambalaya 3-1: Operating at high level now WON
A. #9 Hotstufanthensome 4-1: Double Gr. III winner prepped with TBD score 2nd
B. #12 Murch 20-1: Pitts too savvy with this type at this trip

$2 Exacta 3-9 $26.00
$2 Double 8/3 $17.00
$2 Pick-3 2/8/3 $46.20


10th: 20th Skip Away (Gr. III), 4+, 9f (P3, DD)

#7 SCRATCHED (Original "1." selection)
1. #3 A. P. Arrow 8-5: Obviously can win but will be no bargain WON
2. #5 Palladio 20-1: Note Attfield T2D move with him for '06 Ont. Derby 4th
A. #2 Touched by Madness 12-1: Saves ground under Raffy; pointed for this by Plesa 5th
B. SCR ADD: #1 Political Force 6-1 3rd

$2 Double 3/3 $8.00
$2 Pick-3 8/3/3 3 of 3 $34.60


11th: 56th Florida Derby (Gr. I), 3yo, 9f (DD)

An outstanding and confusing edition of this storied event that produced Barbaro en route to his Rose Run last year. Several ways to go here, and decisions center on how you view the Fountain of Youth versus the Louisiana Derby &/or the Risen Star which produce 7 of the 9 runners assembled.

1. #1 Notional 4-1: Professional O'Neill colt stalks, takes next step 2nd
2. #3 Scat Daddy 5-2: Fountain winner gets Edgar; this is his 'Derby' WON
A. #9 Birdbirdistheword 12-1: McPeek sharp 2nd/layoff; needs hot pace
B. #5 Stormello 3-1: Currin's sharp edged Gr. I winner must avoid duel 4th

EXOTICS ADD: #6 Chelokee 8-1: Must step up; miracle win showed class 3rd

$2 Exacta 3-1 $21.40
$2 Trifecta 3-1-6 $148.60
$1 Trifecta Box $74.30
$2 Quad/Superfecta 3-1-6-5 $468.40
$1 Quad/Superfecta Box $234.20
$2 Double 3/3 $10.60
$2 Pick-3 3/3/3 $25.80


12th: ALW, F&M-4+, 5f-T

1. #10 Flying Circle 4-1: Fawkes' 5yo at home this level, trip 2nd
2. #6 Madam Manguy 12-1: Had no where to go last time 4th
A. #2 Mohegan Sky 3-1: Rice has spotted stock well this meet WON
B. #9 Saorise Cat 5-1: Live Oak bay frequently arrives late


<$150 P6 Play:

7: 2-5-6
8: 8
9: 3-7-9
10: 3-7-SCR
11: 1-3
12: 6-10

3x1x3x1x2x2 = 36 x $2 = $72 (with SCR of Dry Martini)


<$100/<$50 P4 Plays:

9: 3-7-9
10: 1-[2]-3-[5]-7-SCR
11: 1-3-4-5
12: 6-10

3x4x4x2 = $96 (For <$50 play, exclude 2-5 in R10 for 3x2x4x2 = $48)



MAGNA 5 (LRL 9, SA 4 & 5)


LRL 9th: OC/N2X

1. #4 Clever Clover 3rd
2. #7 Classy and Fast WON
A. #6 Hanalei Bay 4th
B. #1 River Kwai


GP 10th: Skip Away (see above)


SA 4th: 9th Tokyo City (Gr. III)

1. #6 Racketeer 3rd
2. #5 Preachinatthebar 4th
3. #1 Neko Bay 2nd


GP 11th: Florida Derby (see above)


SA 5th: CLM

1. #12 Unusual Spring WON
2. #3 Charmin Dot 3rd
3. #4 Butterfly Belle 2nd

$1 Exacta 12-4 $22.90
$1 Trifecta 12-4-3 $114.70


<$150 Magna 5 Play:

A: 1-4-6-7
B: 2-3-5-7-SCR
C: 1-5-6
D: 1-3
E: 12

4x3x3x2x1 = 72 x $2 = $144


Good luck! Enjoy the great day of racing!
Steve

[Kasept]

Just back from an errand or two.. Dry Martini and Welcome Again scratch from the Skip Away.. Changes made appropriately (I suppose..)

[Kasept]

Juiced for Larry Johnson and Trombo with Street Magician... Withers-Preakness bound! Johnson, who also has the nice filly Changeisgonnacome, is a terrific guy who was nearly killed last year when he fell off a stepstool (!) and injured all kinds of things internally...

Also satisfying in that Aventura was the decision to stand against Blue Bullet who appeared slower and a notch below to me despite the blowout wins.

[pmacdaddy]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Juiced for Larry Johnson and Trombo with Street Magician... Withers-Preakness bound! Johnson, who also has the nice filly Changeisgonnacome, is a terrific guy who was nearly killed last year when he fell off a stepstool (!) and injured all kinds of things internally...

Also satisfying in that Aventura was the decision to stand against Blue Bullet who appeared slower and a notch below to me despite the blowout wins.

Steve,

Nice call on Street Magician. Cashed some nice win $$ on your sound advice. Caught the EX too.

Thanks!

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by pmacdaddy

Steve,

Nice call on Street Magician. Cashed some nice win $$ on your sound advice. Caught the EX too.

Thanks!

My pleasure! Glad you got a piece.. Been chalky so far since the P6 started.

[pmacdaddy]

Originally Posted by Kasept

My pleasure! Glad you got a piece.. Been chalky so far since the P6 started.

No doubt. Luckily I have not gone deep on any multi races tickets as of yet.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by Kasept

My pleasure! Glad you got a piece.. Been chalky so far since the P6 started.

You got a nice ticket going. Little help here and the 12th is wide open and Madam M has as good a shot as any there.

Rehoboth ran huge. Didn't you like this horse in the FL Derby last year? I never, ever get it right on this horse. Good luck from here out...

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

You got a nice ticket going. Little help here and the 12th is wide open and Madam M has as good a shot as any there.

Rehoboth ran huge. Didn't you like this horse in the FL Derby last year? I never, ever get it right on this horse. Good luck from here out...

Thx B! I still like Rehoboth... Thought this was a bad spot for him though. Am irked that Palladio was impeded on his outside run.. by 'Madness' no less who kept drifting out. Needed Palladio undernearth the winner...

[golfer]

Steve, your Street Magician ran great, but could Victor Espinoza have gotten Green Vegas into any more trouble? I thought I was watching a dog race when the 6 horse James Wilfred blew the turn and wiped him out (obviously I played Green Vegas on top of SM).. Espinoza spends the entire turn looking back to see what was happening behind him, then remembers the race is still going on, and hangs like yesterday's laundry for 4th. I wish Victor would stay in California, so I could continue to IGNORE him.
And don't get me started on his ride Helsinki in the 3rd.. I've never seen a horse that wide on the turn in my handicapping career!!

[Kasept]

G,

I know a few people that weren't happy with Espo's antics today... There were a number of those kinds of 'push outs' today.. Touched by Madness interrupted Palladio's strong run in the Skip Away too by drift, drift, drifting out on him from the 16th pole in..

I thought 'Vegas' was in for a good effort today too...

[Jax Cajun]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Just back from an errand or two.. Dry Martini and Welcome Again scratch from the Skip Away.. Changes made appropriately (I suppose..)

I first read that as "Just got back from a Dry Martini or two".

Steve - I heard you on ATRAB yesterday about the .57 works for Adore Gold and was hoping you were wrong, but of course you've seen it before. That was a complete burn out and also what is up with Cornelio and the first turn? The same thing happened with Nobiz in the FOY, is he the right rider for Nobiz? I think a move to Prado is something Tagg should consider.

[golfer]

Originally Posted by Kasept

G,

I know a few people that weren't happy with Espo's antics today... There were a number of those kinds of 'push outs' today.. Touched by Madness interrupted Palladio's strong run in the Skip Away too by drift, drift, drifting out on him from the 16th pole in..

I thought 'Vegas' was in for a good effort today too...

Obviously, and unfortunately, I ended up playing a bunch of his horses. The only reason I didn't play the 10 in the last was because of him, would have only added to my misery losing by a nose.. strange day today.. I hit the super in the first ($800) and cashed about 4 rolling pick 3's, which I spread pretty heavily, yet collected about $50 total for them Oh well, there's always next week.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Jax Cajun

I first read that as "Just got back from a Dry Martini or two".

Steve - I heard you on ATRAB yesterday about the .57 works for Adore Gold and was hoping you were wrong, but of course you've seen it before. That was a complete burn out and also what is up with Cornelio and the first turn? The same thing happened with Nobiz in the FOY, is he the right rider for Nobiz? I think a move to Prado is something Tagg should consider.

I said a few times that I thought Adore the Gold was in for a bad effort for a few reasons. The work was ridiculous of course. When you need to get a horse a distance he may not want, the last thing you do is let him fire an insane bullet. You work him "long and slow". Look at Pletcher's horse.. EVERY ONE goes in 1:02.0 in preparation for routes.. Some a bit faster if they're just naturally fast. But when you have a sprinter you can't put more speed into them in the morning and make them think that's what you're going to ask them to do in the afternoon.

If that wasn't enough, you could see from his 2 year old pattern that he was in for an off effort. He hjad the 2 good starts to begin his career and then the bad try in the Nashua. He was on that same skien coming into today. And you didn't need Thoro-Graph to see it. It was in his Beyers as well.

It all added up to a likely sub-par performance, and it's just what you got. He'll bounce back in his next given a natural break.. 28-35 days. I feel bad for Gorham though who I think really was hoping and anticipating a Derby slot.

As for Velasquez-Prado, Tagg better jump quickly if he wants Edgar... He has said he's happy with Corny though.

[Jax Cajun]

Originally Posted by Kasept

I said a few times that I thought Adore the Gold was in for a bad effort for a few reasons. The work was ridiculous of course. When you need to get a horse a distance he may not want, the last thing you do is let him fire an insane bullet. You work him "long and slow". Look at Pletcher's horse.. EVERY ONE goes in 1:02.0 in preparation for routes.. Some a bit faster if they're just naturally fast. But when you have a sprinter you can't put more speed into them in the morning and make them think that's what you're going to ask them to do in the afternoon.

If that wasn't enough, you could see from his 2 year old pattern that he was in for an off effort. He hjad the 2 good starts to begin his career and then the bad try in the Nashua. He was on that same skien coming into today. And you didn't need Thoro-Graph to see it. It was in his Beyers as well.

It all added up to a likely sub-par performance, and it's just what you got. He'll bounce back in his next given a natural break.. 28-35 days. I feel bad for Gorham though who I think really was hoping and anticipating a Derby slot.

As for Velasquez-Prado, Tagg better jump quickly if he wants Edgar... He has said he's happy with Corny though.

Corny better prove his worth in the Wood, which is looking very nice BTW. Too bad I can only watch that on replay since I'll be strolling the grounds of Augusta National next weekend

Your thoughts on Chelokee? Should he try a softer prep closer to the Derby?