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  #1  
Old 06-08-2022, 05:16 AM
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Default 6/11 (BEL): 154th Belmont Stakes Day







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  #2  
Old 06-08-2022, 09:47 AM
steve steve is offline
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nothing says Belmont more that 5 horse fields in Grade 1 races
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  #3  
Old 06-08-2022, 07:18 PM
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Does anyone know the record of horses in the Belmont with only 4 career starts and no starts as a 2 year old? Two of the top four ML choices fit that bill and Iíve got to think those horses donít have a good track record in the race.
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  #4  
Old 06-08-2022, 07:26 PM
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Originally Posted by moses View Post
Does anyone know the record of horses in the Belmont with only 4 career starts and no starts as a 2 year old? Two of the top four ML choices fit that bill and Iíve got to think those horses donít have a good track record in the race.
Closest I can think of was Justify. No starts as 2 year old but 5 at 3. No one else comes to mind.
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  #5  
Old 06-08-2022, 07:47 PM
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Originally Posted by knickslions2 View Post
Closest I can think of was Justify. No starts as 2 year old but 5 at 3. No one else comes to mind.
I did a quick look and found Summer Bird had no starts at 2 and only 4 career starts. Tonalist had only 4 career starts but did have a start at two.

This, of course, says nothing of the number of horses with similar resumes who did not win.
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  #6  
Old 06-08-2022, 07:53 PM
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I did a quick look and found Summer Bird had no starts at 2 and only 4 career starts. Tonalist had only 4 career starts but did have a start at two.

This, of course, says nothing of the number of horses with similar resumes who did not win.
Many moons ago this may have been a bigger issue but I wouldnít worry about it today. Horses dont run like the used to. There are no juggernauts in this field. Iíll take my chances with Creative Minister which fits your original post.
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Old 06-08-2022, 07:58 PM
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Many moons ago this may have been a bigger issue but I wouldnít worry about it today. Horses dont run like the used to. There are no juggernauts in this field. Iíll take my chances with Creative Minister which fits your original post.
Thatís the horse Iím leaning toward. I donít like We The People at all. Creative Minister concerns me a little with the inexperience and with so many races crammed into a small time frameÖbut I also think his third in the Preakness is probably the best performance of any horse in the race and he can back it up with some other pretty good races around two turns.

But just trying to see if there is something Iím missing.
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  #8  
Old 06-08-2022, 08:04 PM
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Thatís the horse Iím leaning toward. I donít like We The People at all. Creative Minister concerns me a little with the inexperience and with so many races crammed into a small time frameÖbut I also think his third in the Preakness is probably the best performance of any horse in the race and he can back it up with some other pretty good races around two turns.

But just trying to see if there is something Iím missing.
I think this race sets up nicely for the horse if heís ready. I expect him to get first run at the 1 and like his chances. Iíll be happy with 6-1. I may even single so I can get creative in races 8 and 10 for value.
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  #9  
Old 06-08-2022, 10:08 PM
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Originally Posted by knickslions2 View Post
I think this race sets up nicely for the horse if heís ready. I expect him to get first run at the 1 and like his chances. Iíll be happy with 6-1. I may even single so I can get creative in races 8 and 10 for value.
I actually think he may have more early speed than the 1. Iím totally unconvinced that We The People gets an easy lead.
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Old 06-08-2022, 11:07 PM
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I think Gear Jockey is an intriguing runner in the Jaipur.
Up close and wide last time at CD, he steadied out of it and then made a pretty good move while hopelessly wide on the turn. Must have been in the 7 path turning for home. Battled on but tired to finish a close 4th. Gets Lezcano back today, and figures to be up close again in a rather paceless affair. Drew wide but I don't think it will hurt him as he should be able to get out and over in front of most of these.
In his previous race he was wide again and had no chance vs the best in the land, Golden Pal. Still, he ran pretty well to get 3rd.
Maybe he's may be a bit over the top after a big year in 2021? 0-3 so far in 2022.

I'm buying at his ML of 6-1
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  #11  
Old 06-09-2022, 10:02 AM
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Originally Posted by Conrad View Post
I think Gear Jockey is an intriguing runner in the Jaipur.
Up close and wide last time at CD, he steadied out of it and then made a pretty good move while hopelessly wide on the turn. Must have been in the 7 path turning for home. Battled on but tired to finish a close 4th. Gets Lezcano back today, and figures to be up close again in a rather paceless affair. Drew wide but I don't think it will hurt him as he should be able to get out and over in front of most of these.
In his previous race he was wide again and had no chance vs the best in the land, Golden Pal. Still, he ran pretty well to get 3rd.
Maybe he's may be a bit over the top after a big year in 2021? 0-3 so far in 2022.

I'm buying at his ML of 6-1
It's a very interesting puzzle to try and solve. I have seen worse 30/1 shots than Greyes Creek. Maybe he really is a sprinter? Adds Blinkers and Lobo appears to do well with that move. Obviously not the most likely winner but I couldn't X him in multi's
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  #12  
Old 06-09-2022, 03:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by knickslions2 View Post
I think this race sets up nicely for the horse if heís ready. I expect him to get first run at the 1 and like his chances. Iíll be happy with 6-1. I may even single so I can get creative in races 8 and 10 for value.
Mike Welsch has reported that Creative Minister was ďhot in the coatĒ after some light work two different times this week. Not sure what to make of it. Iím still going to roll with him.
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  #13  
Old 06-09-2022, 05:01 PM
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Quote:
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Mike Welsch has reported that Creative Minister was ďhot in the coatĒ after some light work two different times this week. Not sure what to make of it. Iím still going to roll with him.
Slightly notable that McPeek's Tiz the Bomb kept getting warm all through lead up to Derby..
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  #14  
Old 06-09-2022, 05:24 PM
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Slightly notable that McPeek's Tiz the Bomb kept getting warm all through lead up to Derby..
Iím going to keep an eye on that and see how he looks the next two days.
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  #15  
Old 06-11-2022, 12:01 AM
Conrad Conrad is offline
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Can Happy Saver pick up the pieces (if there are any) in the Met Mile ?

He won his first four races and has now lost five straight.
However, he ran well in the Clark vs Maxfield (who never lost at CD) and he needed his last when 3wide and 4wide around the turns, still he hit the lead vs an in-form and very good Olympiad but got tired.
Now he returns to his favorite track and will likely get a very fast pace to run at.

He can fill out the exacta and maybe win if things get crazy up front.
I expect him to run very well.
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  #16  
Old 06-11-2022, 02:29 PM
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Jack Christopher was super impressive. Serling may be right that this is the best 3yo in the country.
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Old 06-11-2022, 03:42 PM
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Yes, Jerry Bailey seriously just said on air that his ride in the 2004 Belmont was his best chance to win.
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  #18  
Old 06-11-2022, 04:08 PM
Conrad Conrad is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Conrad View Post
I think Gear Jockey is an intriguing runner in the Jaipur.
Up close and wide last time at CD, he steadied out of it and then made a pretty good move while hopelessly wide on the turn. Must have been in the 7 path turning for home. Battled on but tired to finish a close 4th. Gets Lezcano back today, and figures to be up close again in a rather paceless affair. Drew wide but I don't think it will hurt him as he should be able to get out and over in front of most of these.
In his previous race he was wide again and had no chance vs the best in the land, Golden Pal. Still, he ran pretty well to get 3rd.
Maybe he's may be a bit over the top after a big year in 2021? 0-3 so far in 2022.

I'm buying at his ML of 6-1
Splat - got the trip I wanted and came up empty.
Had a great year in 2021, but he's seen his better days.
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  #19  
Old 06-11-2022, 04:48 PM
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Wow. Just wow. This is a damn superhorse.
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Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine
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