Who is your top Kentucky Derby contender? Part II.

[moses]

Originally Posted by wac

You dont like rock your world i take it? I thought his race in SA derby was pretty good but if im missing something let me know b/c i know you are a really good handicapper. thanks

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Seems like he won the SA Derby under ideal circumstances, controlled the pace ( which is highly unlikely to happen in the KY Derby ) and ran on the inside which seems to have been a distinct advantage that day. I suppose he can win, but he’s a bit dressed up by circumstance, and he looks like a potential dramatic underlay.

I rarely pick the Derby winner. My Preakness record is MUCH stronger:-)

It sounds like you and DaHoss are on the same page. The problem I'm having with this race is that the other "top contenders" seem to have also had pretty ideal circumstances in their most recent races.

Essential Quality always seems to work out a nearly perfect, untroubled trip. Can we expect that on Derby Day? I'm not so sure and it's not like his figures tower over this field to the point where I feel confident he can overcome any trouble he may run into.

I love the incremental fractions that Known Agenda set in the Florida Derby but he got pretty close to a perfect trip. He did seem to lightly bump with Soup and Sandwich at the top of the stretch and then ended up in the middle of the track. (Two races back, he seemed to move inward at the top of the stretch and was so much better than the competition that he was luckily clear of the runner up. But I'm a little concerned with how his trip will work out in the Derby and how he'll negotiate that final turn.)

Hot Rod Charlie controlled the pace in the LA Derby but I don't think he can do that in this race. And while he's run well coming from off the pace and seems like he could be primed to run big, I'm not sure he's going to win doing that.

Highly Motivated controlled a fairly modest pace in the Blue Grass, tired down the stretch, and was finished off by Essential Quality. Normally, you could make the case that he's eligible to improve in his 3rd off the layoff but I feel like Chad Brown normally has his horses ready to run regardless of a layoff and, based on that race and his pedigree, I'm just not sure he can "get the distance."

So I circle back to Rock Your World.