Who is your top Kentucky Derby contender? Part II.

[moses]

I'm curious to see how everyone's thoughts have changed. Last time, Essential Quality got 1 vote and Concert Tour led the way with 6 votes. Of course, that was before Concert Tour's big disappointment in the Arkansas Derby.

Now that all the derby preps are in the books, who do you have as the top Derby contender?

[moses]

The first poll had 18 votes, with 1 for Essential Quality. This poll currently has 18 votes, with 2 for Essential Quality.

For a horse expected to be the Kentucky Derby favorite, that's pretty lukewarm.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by moses

The first poll had 18 votes, with 1 for Essential Quality. This poll currently has 18 votes, with 2 for Essential Quality.

For a horse expected to be the Kentucky Derby favorite, that's pretty lukewarm.

I’m shocked Rock Your World has 7 votes.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I’m shocked Rock Your World has 7 votes.

Every horse seems to have a few question marks so I think people are gravitating to the one horse that really wowed in his last derby prep. I also have no clue if people are factoring in expected odds when they're voting (possibly explaining why Essential Quality has the same number of votes as Soup and Sandwich.)

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by moses

Every horse seems to have a few question marks so I think people are gravitating to the one horse that really wowed in his last derby prep. I also have no clue if people are factoring in expected odds when they're voting (possibly explaining why Essential Quality has the same number of votes as Soup and Sandwich.)

Yeah hard to know the reasons, but it seems like he will be an underlay, IMO. Maybe he’s a freak, but I thought the day of the SA Derby was very kind to inside speed and those in the outer paths seemed to be struggling. I don’t think he’s fast enough to make the front in the Derby and I’m interested to see if he can take kickback.

[ninetoone]

I'm pretty interested in Highly Motivated & I think he's got the potential to get somewhat lost on the board, especially considering some of love the others are likely to get. I'll be watching his training very closely in the weeks ahead.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Yeah hard to know the reasons, but it seems like he will be an underlay, IMO. Maybe he’s a freak, but I thought the day of the SA Derby was very kind to inside speed and those in the outer paths seemed to be struggling. I don’t think he’s fast enough to make the front in the Derby and I’m interested to see if he can take kickback.

To be honest, I'm very intrigued by Rock Your World. Even if he did benefit from some type of track bias, isn't he eligible to improve upon that in his 2nd start on dirt? I think he could make the front in the Derby. I'm just not sure it gives him his best shot to win, especially if the pace heats up as expected.

The rest of the field is just very uninspiring. Essential Quality can't be totally dismissed and Known Agenda seems to be coming on at the right time...but I can't really get excited about any of the other horses.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I’m shocked Rock Your World has 7 votes.

It makes handicapping the race much easier

[wac]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It makes handicapping the race much easier

You dont like rock your world i take it? I thought his race in SA derby was pretty good but if im missing something let me know b/c i know you are a really good handicapper. thanks

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by wac

You dont like rock your world i take it? I thought his race in SA derby was pretty good but if im missing something let me know b/c i know you are a really good handicapper. thanks

Seems like he won the SA Derby under ideal circumstances, controlled the pace ( which is highly unlikely to happen in the KY Derby ) and ran on the inside which seems to have been a distinct advantage that day. I suppose he can win, but he’s a bit dressed up by circumstance, and he looks like a potential dramatic underlay.

I rarely pick the Derby winner. My Preakness record is MUCH stronger:-)