My Belmont Analysis

[justindew]

I wrote this for Metro Philadelphia newspaper....


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1. Imawildandcrazyguy- It’s a common misconception that a come-from-the-clouds running style, like he has, is beneficial here in the longest Triple Crown race. He’s just not in the same class as many of these.

2. Tiago- While he probably has a quicker turn of foot than his full-brother, Derby winner Giacomo, he is going to have to run down some very talented horses late if he is to find the winner’s circle. Although that’s unlikely to happen, a 3rd place effort is not out of the question.

3. Curlin- I was wrong when I said he wouldn’t fire in the Derby. I was wrong when I said he needed a rest before the Preakness. Clearly, this is a very talented racehorse. If he doesn’t regress, he wins. And I’m tired of predicting that he will regress. But at odds-on, it’s your call, and a tough way to make a buck.

4. CP West- This was my Preakness long shot pick, and he looked like a winner with about ½ mile to go. Then he stopped running. If he takes another step forward, a top-3 finish is within reach. It will have to be a big step, although you do get Nick Zito and Edgar Prado in your corner. Remember Birdstone?

5. Slew’s Tizzy- This guy is about 3 lengths better than a stablemate of Curlin’s named Forty Grams. That makes Slew’s Tizzy about 12 lengths worse than Curlin.

6. Hard Spun- I doubt he would have won, but an ill-timed move in the Preakness certainly did not help his chances, and he was only beaten by 4 lengths. That being said, I think others in here are more likely to take the step forward needed to beat Curlin.

7. Rags to Riches- I would love nothing more than to see this chick crush the boys. Her half-brother, Jazil, won this race last year. I like her chances, but at 3-1, I don’t see a whole lot of value. Still, in my opinion, she’s the second most likely winner if Curlin fires. And if he doesn’t…...

I have yet to cash a ticket in the Triple Crown this year, as my top picks, Nobiz Like Shobiz in the Derby and Street Sense in the Preakness, finished 10th and 2nd, respectively. In an effort to turn a profit for the series, I’m going to hope (not predict) against hope that Curlin ran his best race in the Preakness, and I will leave him off my exacta tickets. Same with Hard Spun. While the odds of both failing to crack the top two spots in the race are not great, a case can be made for others being better on this day. Hey, it’s all about value, right?

1. Rags To Riches
2. CP West
3. Tiago

[blackthroatedwind]

" I would love nothing more than to see this chick crush the boys. "

This should win you a lot of admirers.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

ive heard alot of talk about curlin and hard spun not bieng in the money....very funny.. i hope cp west and hes a old salt run huge for zito

[GPK]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

" I would love nothing more than to see this chick crush the boys. "

This should win you a lot of admirers.

BE NICE

[blackthroatedwind]

I just thought it was a funny line.

[miraja2]

Other than what seems to me like a little bit too much love for CP West....that sounds pretty good to me.
If Zito and Prado get that one across the line first, it would be a MUCH bigger shocker to me than Birdstone was.

[Mortimer]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I wrote this for Metro Philadelphia newspaper....


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1. Imawildandcrazyguy- It’s a common misconception that a come-from-the-clouds running style, like he has, is beneficial here in the longest Triple Crown race. He’s just not in the same class as many of these.

2. Tiago- While he probably has a quicker turn of foot than his full-brother, Derby winner Giacomo, he is going to have to run down some very talented horses late if he is to find the winner’s circle. Although that’s unlikely to happen, a 3rd place effort is not out of the question.

3. Curlin- I was wrong when I said he wouldn’t fire in the Derby. I was wrong when I said he needed a rest before the Preakness. Clearly, this is a very talented racehorse. If he doesn’t regress, he wins. And I’m tired of predicting that he will regress. But at odds-on, it’s your call, and a tough way to make a buck.

4. CP West- This was my Preakness long shot pick, and he looked like a winner with about ½ mile to go. Then he stopped running. If he takes another step forward, a top-3 finish is within reach. It will have to be a big step, although you do get Nick Zito and Edgar Prado in your corner. Remember Birdstone?

5. Slew’s Tizzy- This guy is about 3 lengths better than a stablemate of Curlin’s named Forty Grams. That makes Slew’s Tizzy about 12 lengths worse than Curlin.

6. Hard Spun- I doubt he would have won, but an ill-timed move in the Preakness certainly did not help his chances, and he was only beaten by 4 lengths. That being said, I think others in here are more likely to take the step forward needed to beat Curlin.

7. Rags to Riches- I would love nothing more than to see this chick crush the boys. Her half-brother, Jazil, won this race last year. I like her chances, but at 3-1, I don’t see a whole lot of value. Still, in my opinion, she’s the second most likely winner if Curlin fires. And if he doesn’t…...

I have yet to cash a ticket in the Triple Crown this year, as my top picks, Nobiz Like Shobiz in the Derby and Street Sense in the Preakness, finished 10th and 2nd, respectively. In an effort to turn a profit for the series, I’m going to hope (not predict) against hope that Curlin ran his best race in the Preakness, and I will leave him off my exacta tickets. Same with Hard Spun. While the odds of both failing to crack the top two spots in the race are not great, a case can be made for others being better on this day. Hey, it’s all about value, right?

1. Rags To Riches
2. CP West
3. Tiago
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Crinkle



Trash can

[letswastemoney]

I don't think anyone can assume a lightly raced horse like Tiago can't win. He might very well lose by a ton, by he hasn't raced enough to give a true indication of his ability.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by justindew

1. Rags To Riches
2. CP West
3. Tiago

I simply can't see Curlin and Hard Spun both missing the trifecta....

That would be shocking to say the least.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I simply can't see Curlin and Hard Spun both missing the trifecta....

That would be shocking to say the least.

I didn't take it to mean that it was his prediction for the trifecta. Afterall, he did say about Curlin, "If he doesn’t regress, he wins. And I’m tired of predicting that he will regress."
I took his 1,2,3 to be what he thought were the top three betting options in the race. While I don't know that I agree with him, it is a bit different than boldly predicting a Curlin-less trifecta.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I didn't take it to mean that it was his prediction for the trifecta. Afterall, he did say about Curlin, "If he doesn’t regress, he wins. And I’m tired of predicting that he will regress."
I took his 1,2,3 to be what he thought were the top three betting options in the race. While I don't know that I agree with him, it is a bit different than boldly predicting a Curlin-less trifecta.

This is not my prediction, but instead it is how I will bet the race. I may play Rags to win if she climbs to 5-1. Otherwise, I will use her on top (no pun intended) of CP West and Tiago, and hope for the best. If my life depended on me picking the winner, obviously I would take Curlin.

[Scav]

I have to say that while it is a short field, it is an awful interesting betting race. TG wise, horses like Tiago and Slew's Tizzy have improving lines, ones where they are predicted to run in the zero range. I don't see Rag getting to that number, nor do I see Curlin running anywhere near his number in this race. I really think you could get some value by playing a small ticket like this

Tiago, Slew's Tizzy
Tiago, Slew's Tizzy, Spun
Tiago, Slew's Tizzy, Spun, Rags, Wild, Curlin

Anything can happen. To me, Curlin is not the most likely winner, especially if you think he reacts off that last effort, which was monsterous.....

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Scav

To me, Curlin is not the most likely winner, especially if you think he reacts off that last effort, which was monsterous.....

If he isn't....

Who is?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Scav

Anything can happen. To me, Curlin is not the most likely winner, especially if you think he reacts off that last effort, which was monsterous.....

Not to echo DrugS......but this is absolutely wrong. He is 100% the most likely winner. In fact....he is the very definition of " most likely winner."

[Scav]

Maybe I worded it wrong, but I really don't think he wins, but I have zero idea who will win, but I just don't think he does it....I fully expect a dull effort from him, maybe a one paced 3rd.

I might consider a win wager on Tiago, even though I can't stand Smith, how much trouble can he get in on a closer in a 7 horse race.....

[blackthroatedwind]

Curlin is probably going to win. I can understand anyone who has reservations but he's a pretty likely winner. He's not worth even money or 4:5 perhaps, and Rags to Riches and maybe Tiago have real chances, but he's a very good horse.

The sooner you get away from this bounce/react sh it the better.

[jpops757]

Originally Posted by Scav

I have to say that while it is a short field, it is an awful interesting betting race. TG wise, horses like Tiago and Slew's Tizzy have improving lines, ones where they are predicted to run in the zero range. I don't see Rag getting to that number, nor do I see Curlin running anywhere near his number in this race. I really think you could get some value by playing a small ticket like this

Tiago, Slew's Tizzy
Tiago, Slew's Tizzy, Spun
Tiago, Slew's Tizzy, Spun, Rags, Wild, Curlin

Anything can happen. To me, Curlin is not the most likely winner, especially if you think he reacts off that last effort, which was monsterous.....

Most over and misused term in handicapping. Where is the value when the ticket is a loser. I can see taking a chance with yout $8 tri wheel but do you really think it will win?

[Scav]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The sooner you get away from this bounce/react sh it the better.

So you think that a horse doesn't react off huge efforts and non-ample time to recoup?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Scav

So you think that a horse doesn't react off huge efforts and non-ample time to recoup?

Right.....I don't.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by jpops757

Most over and misused term in handicapping. Where is the value when the ticket is a loser. I can see taking a chance with yout $8 tri wheel but do you really think it will win?

You are bound to have losing tickets in this game, it is minimizing the big ones and ultizing opportunities like this one, where there is a short priced favorite who I think has very little chance to finish 2nd, let alone win.