11/5 (CD): 27th Breeders' Cup (Day 1)

[Kasept]

Hope you've enjoyed the ATR coverage these 2 weeks from Louisville. Friday, join me with David Ingordo (Purchased Zenyatta), Billy Rapaport (ESPN/NBC Sports), Gus Alonso, Nick Tammaro, Rick Hammerle, Gary Young, Jimmy Ventura, and more!

Have a great Breeders' Cup Day 1!


27th BREEDERS' CUP -- CHURCHILL DOWNS -- DAY ONE


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: ALW/N2X, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Homerun Berti 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #5 Glenwood Canyon 5-2 WON ($6.20)
Exotics Use: #1 Too Wild for Words 4-1 7th
Super Add: #6 Commandeered 7-2 3rd


2nd: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Crider 4-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Join in the Dance 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Solar Rocket 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #4 Lubango 8-1 5th


3rd: Jimmy V, 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #9 Noble's Promise 9-2 WON ($6.00)
Next Best: #7 Bulldogger 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Close to the Edge 8-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Cool Bullet 3-1 6th


4th: Ack Ack H. (G3), 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Apart 2-1 WON ($4.80)
Next Best: #4 Demarcation 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Colizeo 3-1 2nd


5th: 3rd BC Marathon (G3), 3+, 14f (PP6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #10 Alcomo 6-1: 7yo from madman Caramori has drilled like soldier for legacy chance.. 5th
Next Best: #8 Giant Oak 4-1: Block's open galloper may finally find appropriate opportunity.. 4th
Exotics Use: #12 A. U. Miner 9-2: Mineshaft 5yo has improved with additional furlongs.. 3rd
Super Add: #11 Precision Break 15-1: Ibn Bey trainer Cole likely knows what's needed for this.. 7th


6th: 3rd BC Juvenile Fillies Turf (G2), 2yo-F, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Race is being identified as Toner filly's (Winter Memories) to lose, but 2-1 or less on off pace miss tough to embrace in large field with several price options available. Respect the daughter of Memories of Silver, 5th in the '96 Mile herself, but be cognizant of other options..

Best Value: #2 Tale Untold 15-1: Versatile, developing sort decisioned shorter-priced rival Together.. 11th
Next Best: #7 Winter Memories 2-1: Destroyed over-matched Miss Grillo rivals; The one to beat.. 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Kathmanblu 10-1: McPeek may not keep these right later on, but dangerous now.. 3rd
Super Add: #8 Wyomia 12-1: Vindication miss from Kingmambo mare pace threat back on lawn.. 6th


<$75 P4 Play:

3: 2-7-8-9
4: 1-4-5
5: 6-7-8-10-11-12
6: 2-7

4x3x6x2 = 144 x .50 = $72


7th: 4th BC Filly & Mare Sprint (G1), F&M-3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

One of the weekend's most entertaining races..

Most Likely: #14 Champagne d'Oro 6-1: 2X G1 heroine Brilliantly handled by game's wackiest character.. 4th
Next Best: #12 Dubai Majesty 6-1: Will be rallying late; Win candidate picking up pieces.. WON ($19.20)
Best Value: #5 Evening Jewel 15-1: Won't be 15-1; Will run big.. 3rd
Super Add: #11 Jessica is Back 12-1: Consistent Wolfson performer rarely misfires.. 9th


8th: 27th BC Juvenile Fillies (G1), 2yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #9 Delightful Mary 8-1: Oxley already has one top '11 Oaks candidate; Here's #2.. 3rd
Next Best: #4 Awesome Feather 6-1: Proverbial 'any kind' youngster could dominate or flop.. WON ($10.40)
Exotics Use: #2 Theysken's Theory 10-1: Rosen & Meehan's Bernardini bay the is Cup's "It Girl".. 6th
Super Add: #13 Jordy Y 30-1: Silly number on 4/2-1-1 filly in hands of sharp juvy helmsman.. 10th


9th: 12th BC Filly & Mare Turf (G1), F&M-3+, 11f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Harmonious 6-1: Sherriffs filly appears more imposing than for QE II romp.. 10th
Best Value: #10 Red Desire 10-1: Nippon princess left awesome wake in morning ministrations.. 4th
Next Best: #7 Midday 6-5: Legit favorite for repeat try, but Juddmonte juggernaut no lock.. 2nd
Super Add: #1 Plumania 8-1: Toss Arc fiasco; Much more potential than a typical exotics filler.. 11th


10th: 27th BC Distaff (Ladies Classic), F&M-3+, 9f (Super)

Wonderfully deep and intriguing version of this Cup standard which has produced many a Champion..

Most Likely: #10 Blind Luck 9-5: Remarkable filly reprises Spring heroics for amazing Hollendorfer.. 2nd
Next Best: #11 Havre de Grace 4-1: A. Dutrow miss has yet to regress; First run on pacesetters.. 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Life at Ten 7-2: Training forwardly; Like male stablemate Saturday, quite logical.. 11th
Super Add: #8 Unrivaled Belle 8-1: Enigmatic Mott filly her own worst enemy; Not without chance.. WON ($17.00)


<$25 Distaff/Classic Double:

Fri. 10: 10-11
Sat. 11: 1-3-5-6-8-12

2x6 = 12 x $2 = $24


<$200 P6 Play:

5: 8-10-11-12
6: 2-7
7: 14
8: 2-4-9
9: 1-6-7-10
10: 10

4x2x1x3x4x1 = 96 x $2 = $192


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 5-11-12-14
8: 2-4-9
9: 6-7-10
10: 1-8-10-11

4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

[atolunch]

Thanks as always for the info and insights.

Any inputs on the Ladies/Classic Double?

Best of luck today and all weekend!!

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by atolunch

Thanks as always for the info and insights.

Any inputs on the Ladies/Classic Double?

Best of luck today and all weekend!!

Larry,

My pleasure.. Best of luck!

DIS/CLS Double: 10/11 with 1-3-5-6-8-12 ($12)

[fantini33]

Smash 'em this weekend buddy! Off to the casino for the weekend to smash 'em myself. Will be pounding Wyomia today....getting better the fastest of them all, could get lost in the wagering shuffle....I hope.

Good luck!

[Kasept]

Churchill/Breeders' Cup SCR/CHG'S

[-BT-]

Originally Posted by Kasept

6th: 3rd BC Juvenile Fillies Turf (G2), 2yo-F, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Race is being identified as Toner filly's (Winter Memories) to lose, but 2-1 or less on off pace miss tough to embrace in large field with several price options available. Respect the daughter of Memories of Silver, 5th in the '96 Mile herself, but be cognizant of other options..

Best Value: #2 Tale Untold 15-1: Versatile, developing sort decisioned shorter-priced rival Together..Next Best: #7 Winter Memories 2-1: Destroyed over-matched Miss Grillo rivals; The one to beat..
Exotics Use: #4 Kathmanblu 10-1: McPeek may not keep these right later on, but dangerous now..
Super Add: #8 Wyomia 12-1: Vindication miss from Kingmambo mare pace threat back on lawn..

solid last 2 races, been high on this horse for a couple days now. Hopefully everyone is hung up on the fact that she's still a maiden, but her last makes her competitive. Together should be hammered on the board, and the way she floated out last time is a cause for concern. would like to get around 25-1 on tale untold

best of luck

-bt-

[Kasept]

As strange a stretch of racing at a high level as I suppose you'll ever see. Cup Day 1 kicks off with jockey fisticuffs and ends with a black eye for the game in the Distaff. In between, there were some nice results, especially with people like Stan Gold and Jeff Sanchez, Graham Motion and Edgar Prado, Bret Calhoun and Jamie Theriot and Bobby Flay getting trophies.

Wagering came up largely empty with multi-race runs coming to a halt with $96 Shared Account. Though well-regarded Dubai Majesty and Awesome Feather won (Next Best 2nd choices), horses I didn't like much (Switch & R Heat Lightening) interfered with .50 Trifecta plays running 2nd in the F&M Sprint and Juvy Fillies.

One of the day's lessons was a tight, faster surface that saw closers compromised a fair amount. Will be important to watch the 2 sprints and 1 mile Chilluki today early on to see if the strip is as hot Saturday... Hope everyone did OK and enjoyed the spectacle and side show... Let's dig in for today's challenges and opportunities!