Summer Bird could be HOY - Page 3

Kasept · #41 10-04-2009, 09:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Enough of an edge to overcome the likely five length lead she would have had at the top of the lane?

While that would all depend on the race flow to the quarter pole/eighth pole, Summer Bird will wear down opponents the longer the race goes. And as he's maturing, he's showing the ability to be placed anywhere. He certainly is getting tactical to the point where he could sit a garden trip early as Rachel Alexandra gets engaged up front. His turn of foot is much better than anyone wanted to believe, and while he may not have the brilliance and cruising speed Rachel Alexandra has, he certainly has a highly sustainable gear.

What has to be brought into the conversation is that Summer Bird is continuing to improve. Next year should be tremendously entertaining should the two of them have opportunities together. And I mean opportunities plural too, because a rivalry between them would be riotous.

Kasept · #42 10-04-2009, 09:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo

Steve it is always an injury that keeps them from racing at 4..lol

You think if he wins the Classic he won't have a micro fraction 3 weeks later? lol

Dr. J wants to run. He and the wife were thinking of getting out of the business... He said this week that he's waited a long time to have a horse like this and that they're having too much fun. He bred the dam. He bred Summer Bird. He wants more! You should have seen him yesterday.

I talked to Ice about it this morning, and he said the only thing that keeps him off the track next year is a serious injury.

CSC · #43 10-04-2009, 09:30 AM

Which brings us back to the original post, if he wins the BC Classic next month, which is certainly not a certainty, he deserves to have a few votes cast his way for HOY. He's get mine if I had one.

freddymo · #44 10-04-2009, 09:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

Dr. J wants to run. He and the wife were thinking of getting out of the business... He said this week that he's waited a long time to have a horse like this and that they're having too much fun. He bred the dam. He bred Summer Bird. He wants more! You should have seen him yesterday.

I talked to Ice about it this morning, and he said the only thing that keeps him off the track next year is a serious injury.

Or 30 million..Look you know I would love to see him race I just figure if he wins the Classic there is zero shot..I can't even blame the owners if they dont race 30 mil is a lot of G1 wins.. Not sure the environment is 30mil friendly but you have no clue what could emerge with a BC Classic win.

zippyneedsawin · #45 10-04-2009, 09:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC

I know she wouldn't have beaten him by 7 yesterday if at all, I was the one that posted and had wished she would have run in the JCGC, if they couldn't meet in the BC. It's on dirt you know... Now that she hasn't, I guess she can always claim she has beaten SB in the Haskell as the final chapter.

There's little doubt about that. Summer Bird has developed into a really nice horse. I still think SB would need help up front at this point (as in Rachel getting pushed on the lead) for him to beat her.
Having them face each other on synthetic would be meaningless, IMO. It would be like having them race against each other in a turf race.. completely different surface.. and we all have to get past trying to think dirt and AW are anything similar.

CSC · #46 10-04-2009, 09:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

There's little doubt about that. Summer Bird has developed into a really nice horse. I still think SB would need help up front at this point (as in Rachel getting pushed on the lead) for him to beat her.
Having them face each other on synthetic would be meaningless, IMO. It would be like having them race against each other in a turf race.. completely different surface.. and we all have to get past trying to think dirt and AW are anything similar.

Yeah maybe, but we have to live with the fact poly is part of today's racing fabric now. As long as they both run on it it is a fair match up due to the fact no one has an advantage since both are foreign to the surface. Really there was no excuse for her not running yesterday, I know JJ had the Preemptive statement she was done for the year, but the JCGC carries more prestige than the Woodward. Up until now her most prestigious win would be that race. SB's is the JCGC. Which one means more? If we get past the ga ga factor of RA, I think we would all agree SB's set of 3 gr.1's Belmont-Travers-JCGC is more impressive than RA's set of 3 the Preak-Haskell-Woodward or atleast it is on paper.

Edit-Well not really, I keep forgetting RA has a poly win to her credit.

freddymo · #47 10-04-2009, 09:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

While that would all depend on the race flow to the quarter pole/eighth pole, Summer Bird will wear down opponents the longer the race goes. And as he's maturing, he's showing the ability to be placed anywhere. He certainly is getting tactical to the point where he could sit a garden trip early as Rachel Alexandra gets engaged up front. His turn of foot is much better than anyone wanted to believe, and while he may not have the brilliance and cruising speed Rachel Alexandra has, he certainly has a highly sustainable gear.

What has to be brought into the conversation is that Summer Bird is continuing to improve. Next year should be tremendously entertaining should the two of them have opportunities together. And I mean opportunities plural too, because a rivalry between them would be riotous.

They are in two completely different leagues. Who knows what happens next year but currently you have a very nice G1 colt vs. a REAL super horse (remember what Nerud told you or did you forget because we like Ice?). I am surprised that you think he would have any shot against her ever. Plus who is coming next year to sacifice a horse when they are running for 3rd money, Dry Martini or Awesome Gem?

Remember Ice is 35 years old..Nothing against him at all..But your bottom comments about Summer Bird are more relevant to Ice then Summer Bird.

brianwspencer · #48 10-04-2009, 09:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo

But your bottom comments about Summer Bird are more relevant to Ice then Summer Bird.

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo

Umh how the FCUK did he get 12 without a bottom the first week on JUNE???

Danzig · #49 10-04-2009, 09:53 AM

altho i agree that summer bird is turning out to be a good horse, there is nothing i've seen from rachel that would indicate she is tailing off, or that she won't continue to have a good year next year. mdo certainly was no slouch at four, and i douby anyone would argue that rachel has shown precocity. if anything she has shown herself to be able to run one top notch race after another, with no signs of losing a step. she ran a hell of a campaign this year-beginning to end a good one. the same cannot be said about summer bird.
at any rate, i look forward to future meetings between the two.

3kings · #50 10-04-2009, 10:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC

I think at most he would have atleast reserved the right to change his mind if she doing well, it happens all the time in this sport, plans are not set in stone. Infact I find it hard to fathom why he would have said that 3 months ago not knowing how she would be doing at this stage? No doubt what he did was the smart thing it was a brilliant Preemptive strike for HOY.

I think in Jackson's mind his predetermined refusal to run RA in the BC regardless of circumstance justifies(to himself) Curlin's poor performance last year. He didn't want to run Curlin on the poly and does not want to tarnish the perception of RA, like he feels Curlins' was tarnished.

CSC · #51 10-04-2009, 10:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 3kings

I think in Jackson's mind his predetermined refusal to run RA in the BC regardless of circumstance justifies(to himself) Curlin's poor performance last year. He didn't want to run Curlin on the poly and does not want to tarnish the perception of RA, like he feels Curlins' was tarnished.

Yes agreed, but isn't the unknown part of racing what makes it such a great sport? If it is it's dumb reason why he isn't running her especially since she has won on poly before.

3kings · #52 10-04-2009, 10:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC

Yes agreed, but isn't the unknown part of racing what makes it such a great sport? If it is it's dumb reason why he isn't running her especially since she has won on poly before.

Agreed! I didn't say it was a good reason or logical, just my opinion of Jackson's reason.

brianwspencer · #53 10-04-2009, 10:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC

Yes agreed, but isn't the unknown part of racing what makes it such a great sport? If it is it's dumb reason why he isn't running her especially since she has won on poly before.

While I'm always torn on how I feel about Jackson, and am mostly playing devil's advocate on this particular issue -- why on Earth should he care about the "unknown" and it being "exciting?"

It's his horse, he doesn't think it's in her best interests to run on the stuff, just like he didn't with Curlin last year, and that turned out poorly.

Let's lobby Interpretation's folks to cut him back to a 5-furlong Poly allowance race this fall, it's unknown and would be exciting, right? The sport would be better for it.

Cannon Shell · #54 10-04-2009, 10:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo

Or 30 million..Look you know I would love to see him race I just figure if he wins the Classic there is zero shot..I can't even blame the owners if they dont race 30 mil is a lot of G1 wins.. Not sure the environment is 30mil friendly but you have no clue what could emerge with a BC Classic win.

No way he will get 30 million and why wouldnt he just wait till next year anyway? A big year next year and he will get just as much and may be dealing from strength in a better economic climate.

Cannon Shell · #55 10-04-2009, 10:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 3kings

I think in Jackson's mind his predetermined refusal to run RA in the BC regardless of circumstance justifies(to himself) Curlin's poor performance last year. He didn't want to run Curlin on the poly and does not want to tarnish the perception of RA, like he feels Curlins' was tarnished.

Funny I think that Curlins perception after the race was brought into a more realistic light. He was a pretty good horse, though hardly the type that Jackson and the infidels thought he was.

CSC · #56 10-04-2009, 10:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

While I'm always torn on how I feel about Jackson, and am mostly playing devil's advocate on this particular issue -- why on Earth should he care about the "unknown" and it being "exciting?"

It's his horse, he doesn't think it's in her best interests to run on the stuff, just like he didn't with Curlin last year, and that turned out poorly.

As a Broodmare prospect and not a Stallian prospect, I think he would do it for the sporting reason only, look at SB's owners, they are having a hell of a time and they have seemingly have concluded that running is better than not running taking a greater risk than a multi millionaire that JJ is.

Cannon Shell · #57 10-04-2009, 10:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

While I'm always torn on how I feel about Jackson, and am mostly playing devil's advocate on this particular issue -- why on Earth should he care about the "unknown" and it being "exciting?"

It's his horse, he doesn't think it's in her best interests to run on the stuff, just like he didn't with Curlin last year, and that turned out poorly.

Let's lobby Interpretation's folks to cut him back to a 5-furlong Poly allowance race this fall, it's unknown and would be exciting, right? The sport would be better for it.

No one said he should care though a "sportsman" may have.

The point of horseracing especially for the ultra-rich is to see who's horse is best and to test your horses limits. Since handicap racing has been all but eliminated in this country, it would be nice to see owners/trainers try to test thier horses by doing different things. Surely Jackson has done that with RA but lets face it, he needs to race her at 1 1/4 next year or there will always be that knock against her. Speculating that she could get the distance and doing it are two different things. I think Freddy is nuts to think that she is in another league from Summer Bird, especially at 1 1/4 which is clearly a distance that he excells at. People get too hung up on the results of one race especially in a race where SB was clearly at a disadvantage (track plays to RA's favor not to mention he was cutting back off a 1 1/2 race to 1 1/8th which is tricky).

Anyone who says the sport wouldnt be better off with RA running in the BC has a strange outlook on better off.

cmorioles · #58 10-04-2009, 10:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Funny I think that Curlins perception after the race was brought into a more realistic light. He was a pretty good horse, though hardly the type that Jackson and the infidels thought he was.

Why, because he was only a pretty good turf horse?

freddymo · #59 10-04-2009, 10:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

No way he will get 30 million and why wouldnt he just wait till next year anyway? A big year next year and he will get just as much and may be dealing from strength in a better economic climate.

Ok cant argue it is a horrible time to have a good horse but whatever the figure it is way more then they will make racing.

Sightseek · #60 10-04-2009, 10:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

No one said he should care though a "sportsman" may have.

The point of horseracing especially for the ultra-rich is to see who's horse is best and to test your horses limits. Since handicap racing has been all but eliminated in this country, it would be nice to see owners/trainers try to test thier horses by doing different things. .

I watched tons of race replays from the 90's last night (do I know how to have a good Saturday night or what?

) and it's so completely depressing how far we've fallen from this concept...

It's also a shame that this has completely destroyed the significance of races like the Pimlico Special etc.