1/5: (AQU) Count Fleet

Kasept · #1 01-03-2008, 02:05 PM

8th (3:49) Count Fleet S.

1 Mile 70 Yards | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $75,000

1 Red Reef Elliott S 116 L
2 Spanky Fischbein Luzzi M J 116 L
3 Run With Me Maragh R 116 L
4 Atta Boy Andy Vaz E 118 L
5 Barrier Reef Garcia Alan 116 L
6 Roman Emperor Rose J 118 L
7 Giant Moon Dominguez R A 120 L

Kasept · #2 01-05-2008, 08:48 AM

Surprised no one has an opinion to share on this race. Very solid edition of the Count Fleet with some well-regarded sophs:

Schosberg's undefeated Giant Moon (#7) appears the one to beat sporting the Funny Cide Juvenile sweep (MDN debut/Sleepy Hollow/Runyon) pattern. Will have his hands full with the pair inside him, but sharp conditioner believes he's got a rare talent in this Giant's Causeway bay, and we will get the chance to see a how rare in this sophomore bow. Homebred connections campaigned route-loving dam who banked $250k and first foal will need to raise game in first open company test.

Barrier Reef (#5), a Darley that's still in the US, comes from Tom Albertrani who kicked off what could be an "I'm back!" weekend Friday when Host annexed the Canadian Turf at GP. $350k at Barrett's 2yo sale last March, Mizzen Mast grey dusted maiden foes in 2nd start after troubled debut 3rd behind the very nice He's Solid Gold. Late style not exactly best this oval, and lack of early pace could compromise chances, but a serious soph to keep on watch lists.

Empire Maker bay Roman Emperor (#6) has steadily progressed under super savvy helmsman Klesaris, crushing PHA foes after finding Cool Coal Man far too tough in his unvieling at DEL Park. Half brother of Doc Cheney showed gameness in ALW win last overcoming early trouble, and appears capable of adjusting to pace scenarios under Afleet Alex pilot Rose. Likely ready to fire.

Sprint-oriented pedigree looms question mark for Pletcher state-bred Spanky Fischbein (#2) who didn't miss an exacta in half dozen juvy starts. Fruitlessly chased 'Moon' in Runyon (two turn debut), and will likely find these waters even deeper.

Aptly-named Tony Dutrow chestnut Red Reef (#1) may be overlooked in this race off trio of highly similar sprint efforts that produced 2-0-1 mark. FL-bred son of Red Bullet bested Matz' impressive GP ALW winner Visionaire (1/4/08) in career debut, but had no answer for Hutcheson entrant Grand Minstrel in 12/12 Capote this oval. Two turns should suit stalker-closer type, yet another running in the increasingly familiar powder blue of Ahmed Zayat. Upset chance at a price with forward move and an exotics must use.

Ritvo candidate Run With Me (#3) has already developed quite a bit, and note placement last behind Hutcheson upset chancer Smooth Air while still Miami-based. Needs best try yet and concerned that Delaware Township get won't relish second turn.

Philly gelding Atta Boy Andy (#4) makes trip up turnpike and appears to be bringing knife to gunfight. Broke maiden this trip at Bensalem, but would be inclined to look for son Atticus on lawn come spring.

Selections:

1. #6 Roman Emperor (4-1)
2. #7 Giant Moon (5-2)
3. #1 Red Reef (6-1)
4. #5 Barrier Reef (7-2)

pmacdaddy · #3 01-05-2008, 08:55 AM

Tough race for me to have a single stand out. I will be using everyone except Run with Me and Atta Boy at some level in pk4.

Other than that, just gonna watch and see who steps up.

miraja2 · #4 01-05-2008, 08:59 AM

I agree about Roman Emperor. That colt is seriously bred to run all day, and the addition of blinkers seems to have helped.
If he goes off at close to his 4/1 ML, I think he is the best play here.

Bobby Fischer · #5 01-05-2008, 10:29 AM

Barrier Reef caught my eye a little bit.
He may just be starting to peak.
It could be tough to beat Dominguez here on Giant Moon if no one challenges his lead. Red Reef and/or Spanky Fischbein could be key rivals to the pace. Luzzi will sometimes attempt a mini-duel on the backstretch to establish the lead which would help the Darley colt.

all that said, I would also love to see Roman Emperor impress with a "prime time" performance.

ArlJim78 · #6 01-05-2008, 12:12 PM

nice competitive race that I could see going several ways. Roman Emperor and Run With Me look interesting. just going to watch it.

blackthroatedwind · #7 01-05-2008, 12:15 PM

If there was an odds line on which horse in this race will win a Grade 1 somewhere down the road then Barrier Reef would be 1:9. He may not win today, and he obviously may not prove a terrific horse, but there is also a very good chance he goes on to be an excellent racehorse. Anybody that hasn't seen his last race owes it to themselves to watch it.

Personally, I think he will be hard to beat today.

PSH · #8 01-05-2008, 12:23 PM

Thanks for the heads up Andy. Came from the clouds and never thought he was going to get to the winner until he hits another gear and blows by him. Garcia on him today is worrisome but if there is enough pace and the track is playing fairly it would be hard not to like this Mizzen Mast colt.

PSH

blackthroatedwind · #9 01-05-2008, 12:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PSH

Thanks for the heads up Andy. Came from the clouds and never thought he was going to get to the winner until he hits another gear and blows by him. Garcia on him today is worrisome but if there is enough pace and the track is playing fairly it would be hard not to like this Mizzen Mast colt.

PSH

Yeah, it seems fair so far, but two turn races can be tricky.

He was green as could be and got himself in a ton of trouble, and still made the huge run. He could have a big future. I bet he ends up in Florida after today. Anywhere but Dubai.

the_fat_man · #10 01-05-2008, 12:39 PM

Would love to see a match race between BR and Numaany. We could import Espinoza from Cali for a ride and put Garcia on the other one. We turn them lose in the stretch (by default we know the 2 idiots will be whipping away from both sides) and wait for the chaos.

miraja2 · #11 01-05-2008, 01:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

If there was an odds line on which horse in this race will win a Grade 1 somewhere down the road then Barrier Reef would be 1:9. He may not win today, and he obviously may not prove a terrific horse, but there is also a very good chance he goes on to be an excellent racehorse. Anybody that hasn't seen his last race owes it to themselves to watch it.

Personally, I think he will be hard to beat today.

I don't see it.
I don't think there will be enough pace for him to get it done today, and while his last race was certainly a nice one, I am more impressed with both of Roman Emperor's last two starts.
The fact that Barrier Reef has demonstrated absolutely nothing in the mornings since his last start (or ever, for that matter) doesn't seem to indicate that he has progressed much since then. Despite his impressive off-the-pace score last time, I don't think the extra distance of today's race (although relatively minor) helps him at all.
I am thinking of playing Roman Emperor to win, and boxing him in an exacta with Giant Moon.

KY_Sasquash · #12 01-05-2008, 01:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

If there was an odds line on which horse in this race will win a Grade 1 somewhere down the road then Barrier Reef would be 1:9. He may not win today, and he obviously may not prove a terrific horse, but there is also a very good chance he goes on to be an excellent racehorse. Anybody that hasn't seen his last race owes it to themselves to watch it.

Personally, I think he will be hard to beat today.

Totally agree. That last race was amazing to me. never seen anything like it before. I, too, hope that he ends up in Florida, but we all are aware that there's a good chance he'll be heading to Dubai if he runs well today

trifecta124 · #13 01-05-2008, 01:45 PM

I am going to single Roman Emperor in a late Pick 3. I think the speed between Spanky & Giant Moon will open the door for RE to close well.

Here is my small late Pick 3 ticket:

7th: 3,6,7,8
8th: 6
9th: 1,2,3,4,5

$20 on a buck

trifecta124 · #14 01-05-2008, 02:20 PM

Ouch.....I hope I don't regret not including the 11 horse in the 9th race. He snuck in off of the AE list. The AE's always seem to do very well.

miraja2 · #15 01-05-2008, 02:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KY_Sasquash

Totally agree. That last race was amazing to me. never seen anything like it before.

I remember him blowing the turn and making a nice rally to win it in the stretch, but I guess I was less impressed than you and blackthroatedwind. It was a very nice race, but he is taking a very big step up in class here. He could certainly win it, but others seem more likely to me.

Pedigree Ann · #16 01-05-2008, 02:40 PM

Swami angle. Red Reef, Barrier Reef. One of related names will win it 91.8% of the time. <said dryly, tongue firmly in cheek>

Kasept · #17 01-05-2008, 02:59 PM

Interesting... The open company foes cannot dent the NYB exacta from the Runyon. And Spunky Spanky STILL not out of an exacta in his career.

Track carry both home? Or Emperor/Barrier simply with no excuse for not getting to the leaders in the stretch?

Mike · #18 01-05-2008, 03:03 PM

I'm trying to decide how this race reflects on Big Truck at GP in a few

ArlJim78 · #19 01-05-2008, 03:09 PM

I think the two NY breds had the right runstyle for the circuit, were battle tested, and are just better than the others at this point. most expected one of the others to step it up a bit but they're not ready yet, or are not good enough.

trifecta124 · #20 01-05-2008, 03:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I think the two NY breds had the right runstyle for the circuit, were battle tested, and are just better than the others at this point. most expected one of the others to step it up a bit but they're not ready yet, or are not good enough.

Giant Moon is a nice horse....I thought for sure that at this distance Roman Emperor would show more. It looked as though he was going to roll on by at the top of the stretch, but he wasn't game enough.