7/23-24 (SAR): CCA Oaks (G1); Caress

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I guess, I feel like she had the dream trip while the 2 and 7 did not. If she is like 3/1 the Alabama could be a big underlay.

Wonder if Baffert thinks about skipping the Alabama...running in it actually only hurts the horses chances at winning the division. Right now she has a 1/16 of a pole lead.

l guess im being subjective assuming Elate will love the 10f. I cant see her at 3-1 though. Salty is a massive trip trap horse. AT is probably coming even though the point of her skipping makes sense. Lockdown and Unchained Melody are also pointing to it.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

It's amazing that a horse racing observer could look at that ride and criticize it. Absolutely amazing.

Hey, I'm always willing to listen and maybe learn something. But do you think Baffert is happy with the ride if his horse loses by a head?

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Hey, I'm always willing to listen and maybe learn something. But do you think Baffert is happy with the ride if his horse loses by a head?

Not sure. If we play it out though say he sits back and makes a 4-5 move on the turn, the pace would have been slower for sure.

Now Elate on the good rail like is on a slower pace and gets the first run and has the lead, now the horse is tasked with passing her with that setup.

We will never know how it plays out. I know the effort though was much better than a head win.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

l guess im being subjective assuming Elate will love the 10f. I cant see her at 3-1 though. Salty is a massive trip trap horse. AT is probably coming even though the point of her skipping makes sense. Lockdown and Unchained Melody are also pointing to it.

Kinda thought it was an aggressive move for Baffert sending her to this spot so quickly after a big race in May, a big race in June, think he has some other plans. probably a break, the race at Parx and then the BC.

Abel Tasman was due to fly back to California on Monday. Baffert said if Abel Tasman is doing well in a month’s time, he would consider shipping her back for the Alabama. But he noted that Abel Tasman has already shipped three times this year from her California base.

“If she’s doing really well, I’ll do it,” Baffert said.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Hey, I'm always willing to listen and maybe learn something. But do you think Baffert is happy with the ride if his horse loses by a head?

Yes. His chief competition on paper was eliminated at the break, so he was aggressive into a soft middle split with the best horse. Would you have preferred he dragged Abel Tasman out of the race irrespective of the break/pace and potentially gotten boxed in as the field compressed and Salty went around him nearing the stretch? I see enough of those rides daily in New York to know they almost never work out. And that's not even getting to the race-riding he did in the final furlong, which was just enough to win but not enough to get DQ'ed. To me, Smith's move seems aberrant because there is so little aggressive riding here, when it actually was smart and something to be emulated. Same thing with Bravo's ride on Muqtaser on opening day. It should be a no-brainer to take control when they're going :52 to the half, but so few riders have the balls to do that, which made it look like a Hall of Fame ride in comparison.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

l guess im being subjective assuming Elate will love the 10f. I cant see her at 3-1 though. Salty is a massive trip trap horse. AT is probably coming even though the point of her skipping makes sense. Lockdown and Unchained Melody are also pointing to it.

I realize that Unchained Melody ran well in the Mother Goose, but isn't Holy Helena the likely favorite for the Alabama if Abel Tasman doesn't come back for the race (and might be the horse to beat even if she does come)?

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

I realize that Unchained Melody ran well in the Mother Goose, but isn't Holy Helena the likely favorite for the Alabama if Abel Tasman doesn't come back for the race (and might be the horse to beat even if she does come)?

Yup. Forgot her. Shes a major player for Jerkens. Ill say it now, regardless of who shows up ill take both Mott fillies. I have always been a fan of both and think they are both progressing well.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Yes. His chief competition on paper was eliminated at the break, so he was aggressive into a soft middle split with the best horse. Would you have preferred he dragged Abel Tasman out of the race irrespective of the break/pace and potentially gotten boxed in as the field compressed and Salty went around him nearing the stretch? I see enough of those rides daily in New York to know they almost never work out. And that's not even getting to the race-riding he did in the final furlong, which was just enough to win but not enough to get DQ'ed. To me, Smith's move seems aberrant because there is so little aggressive riding here, when it actually was smart and something to be emulated. Same thing with Bravo's ride on Muqtaser on opening day. It should be a no-brainer to take control when they're going :52 to the half, but so few riders have the balls to do that, which made it look like a Hall of Fame ride in comparison.

He didn't have to drag Abel Tasman out of the race, she tends to settle in the back in all her starts, as she did yesterday. It's one thing to sense a slow pace with a closer and have her sharp early, but Abel Tasman was a good 8 lengths off the front when the field hit the backstretch. Smith then asked her to make up all that ground in a sharp early move. It was risky because even the longshot pacesetters (Summer Luck and Berned) are not completely void of talent, and so were able to make bids approaching the far turn. Abel Tasman had to take a lot of pressure from all sides entering the stretch and Smith, despite being on an overwhelming favorite, had to "race ride" in the stretch to ensure the victory.

He rather could have simply settled in a position similar to fellow closer Daddys Lil Darling, or simply followed his tactics in the Acorn, when he gradually moved Abel Tasman in a position to pounce and blow the race open on the turn. We know she can make up ground quickly.

A similar move against better horses (perhaps Holy Helena or older horses) won't be successful and for all we know, given the battle she was forced to participate in, this particular ride may actually cost her a start in the Alabama.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

He rather could have simply settled in a position similar to fellow closer Daddys Lil Darling, or simply followed his tactics in the Acorn, when he gradually moved Abel Tasman in a position to pounce and blow the race open on the turn. We know she can make up ground quickly.

He got extremely lucky in the Acorn when the seas parted for him along the inside. There was no guarantee that would happen again. Instead, he saw Salty miss the break, sensed the slowing pace and took the bull by the horns with the best horse. I wish more riders in New York would be that aggressive.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

He got extremely lucky in the Acorn when the seas parted for him along the inside. There was no guarantee that would happen again. Instead, he saw Salty miss the break, sensed the slowing pace and took the bull by the horns with the best horse. I wish more riders in New York would be that aggressive.

I like the move too as the 5 was getting pretty comfy up there and was looking at 50 half which could have made that horse tough to catch. Was a great gutsy ride on the best horse.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

He got extremely lucky in the Acorn when the seas parted for him along the inside. There was no guarantee that would happen again. Instead, he saw Salty miss the break, sensed the slowing pace and took the bull by the horns with the best horse. I wish more riders in New York would be that aggressive.

My point is Smith didn't need to be aggressive. The filly was not "extremely lucky" to win the Acorn. Smith didn't need for a dream run on the rail for the horse to win that race. Abel Tasman has proved she can win pretty much from anywhere against these sorts of rivals.

All Smith did was tax the filly, nearly got her beat, and almost got her DQ'd. If he wanted to take it to them, he should have done so from the outset, not 3 furlongs into the race with 8 lengths to make up.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

I like the move too as the 5 was getting pretty comfy up there and was looking at 50 half which could have made that horse tough to catch. Was a great gutsy ride on the best horse.

If Summer Luck, a non-winners 1x horse, was a threat to Mike Smith, then it must have been because she was a daughter of Lookin At Lucky (who sired Arrogate-killer Accelerate).

In fact, Smith was probably still reeling from that race and panicked that the same thing would happen to Abel Tasman unless he shook her up early. Almost cost him.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

If Summer Luck, a non-winners 1x horse, was a threat to Mike Smith, then it must have been because she was a daughter of Lookin At Lucky (who sired Arrogate-killer Accelerate).

In fact, Smith was probably still reeling from that race and panicked that the same thing would happen to Abel Tasman unless he shook her up early. Almost cost him.

Summer Luck is not in same class but had that look of a horse that can steal it from the lead. Was moving very easy up front and I think Mike sensed it. Could he have still ran it down probably but he was confident in his horse to make the move. He has had a few rides over the years where he thought he was on Zenyetta and was too far out of it.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

My point is Smith didn't need to be aggressive. The filly was not "extremely lucky" to win the Acorn. Smith didn't need for a dream run on the rail for the horse to win that race. Abel Tasman has proved she can win pretty much from anywhere against these sorts of rivals.

All Smith did was tax the filly, nearly got her beat, and almost got her DQ'd. If he wanted to take it to them, he should have done so from the outset, not 3 furlongs into the race with 8 lengths to make up.

I didn't say the filly was extremely lucky, I said Smith was lucky that there was a hole at the rail. If he gets stopped there, he loses. Period. You wanted him to take the same risk again, irrespective of circumstances, instead of "taxing the filly" by sending her into a 25-second quarter down a straightaway after his main competition missed the break.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I didn't say the filly was extremely lucky, I said Smith was lucky that there was a hole at the rail. If he gets stopped there, he loses. Period.

This is very presumptuous. Firstly, Smith only went for the hole because it was, in fact, there. He didn't sit behind horses waiting for it to open. From the looks of it, he was looking to split tiring horses rather than follow Salty wide through the turn. Seeing fellow closer Union Strike under a drive at the 3/8s pole probably gave Smith confidence there would be room to run in the pocket.

You wanted him to take the same risk again, irrespective of circumstances, instead of "taxing the filly" by sending her into a 25-second quarter down a straightaway after his main competition missed the break.

It was hardly a risk in the Acorn. Again, the hole was there. If it wasn't, Smith would have simply split horses (it was a 6-horse field) and been able to unleash her turn of foot at the top of the stretch. She wouldn't have got the jump on Salty perhaps, but considering she's handle that rival 3 times now, it probably didn't matter.

As for Salty missing the break in the CCA Oaks, wasn't that pretty much the death knell for her race? Note her wide sweep and wilt in the stretch. How Smith moving Abel Tasman way too early somehow helped exploit the fact that Salty missed the break is beyond me. The damage had already been done. He should have won the race by open lengths, not survived an inquiry.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

It was hardly a risk in the Acorn. Again, the hole was there. If it wasn't, Smith would have simply split horses (it was a 6-horse field) and been able to unleash her turn of foot at the top of the stretch. She wouldn't have got the jump on Salty perhaps, but considering she's handle that rival 3 times now, it probably didn't matter.

As for Salty missing the break in the CCA Oaks, wasn't that pretty much the death knell for her race? Note her wide sweep and wilt in the stretch. How Smith moving Abel Tasman way too early somehow helped exploit the fact that Salty missed the break is beyond me. The damage had already been done. He should have won the race by open lengths, not survived an inquiry.

She's beaten Salty three times with much better trips each time. You left that part out.

And the point was to take advantage of Salty breaking slowly by putting as much distance on her as he could while up on a slow pace, instead of having her alongside Salty at the rear and having to outmaneuver her from the back again. Why put yourself in that position again when the race is there for the taking? I noticed you don't have an argument for why it's bad to be aggressive into a 25-second middle split when no one else wants the lead.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

She's beaten Salty three times with much better trips each time. You left that part out.

Aside from not mentioning the KY Oaks outright, not really. We already discussed that Salty was left at the gate and that Abel Tasman was "extremely lucky" to have a rail run in the Acorn. I figured it was taken for granted. Must I reiterate these facts ad infinitum?

By the way, how many more "better trips" will Abel Tasman need to have for it to become evident that perhaps Abel Tasman's superior push-button running style is simply an outright advantage over Salty's slow-to-get-in-gear, wide closing style?

And the point was to take advantage of Salty breaking slowly by putting as much distance on her as he could while up on a slow pace, instead of having her alongside Salty at the rear and having to outmaneuver her from the back again.

Alongside Salty? What race were you watching? Salty got left at the start (I guess I do have to reiterate the basic facts). Abel Tasman had nearly 5 lengths on Salty early...despite breaking flat-footed herself.

Why put yourself in that position again when the race is there for the taking?

Abel Tasman was odds-on, the race was hers for the taking before they loaded in the gate...even more so once Salty lept in the air. Why should any of this compel Mike Smith to change the horse's running style in the middle of the race?

Maybe it would have been a plausible strategy to take the lead straight from the gate, but the mid-race move was just asking for trouble--as evidenced by the stretch run.

I noticed you don't have an argument for why it's bad to be aggressive into a 25-second middle split when no one else wants the lead.

I didn't realize I was obligated to pick apart every last thing you posted. I guess that would cut down on the number of posts I need to submit.

Not sure why you are passing the second quarter off as 25 seconds. Once again, Abel Tasman was nearly 8 lengths out of it the opening quarter (when 3 horses did want the lead). How fast did she have to run to make the lead from there? :23 and change?

I guess if we are willing to concede that Abel Tasman is capable of a sustained 7 furlong move we can agree that Smith did the right thing here, but as it turns out Smith was all out to hold off a filly with but a $50K minor stakes to her credit...and had to resort to some questionable tactics to do it.

[10 pnt move up]

We can talk about this rider should have done this or that, its in the past

the better question is how good is this filly? Cause that was impressive.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Aside from not mentioning the KY Oaks outright, not really. We already discussed that Salty was left at the gate and that Abel Tasman was "extremely lucky" to have a rail run in the Acorn. I figured it was taken for granted. Must I reiterate these facts ad infinitum?

By the way, how many more "better trips" will Abel Tasman need to have for it to become evident that perhaps Abel Tasman's superior push-button running style is simply an outright advantage over Salty's slow-to-get-in-gear, wide closing style?


Alongside Salty? What race were you watching? Salty got left at the start (I guess I do have to reiterate the basic facts). Abel Tasman had nearly 5 lengths on Salty early...despite breaking flat-footed herself.


Abel Tasman was odds-on, the race was hers for the taking before they loaded in the gate...even more so once Salty lept in the air. Why should any of this compel Mike Smith to change the horse's running style in the middle of the race?

Maybe it would have been a plausible strategy to take the lead straight from the gate, but the mid-race move was just asking for trouble--as evidenced by the stretch run.


I didn't realize I was obligated to pick apart every last thing you posted. I guess that would cut down on the number of posts I need to submit.

Not sure why you are passing the second quarter off as 25 seconds. Once again, Abel Tasman was nearly 8 lengths out of it the opening quarter (when 3 horses did want the lead). How fast did she have to run to make the lead from there? :23 and change?

I guess if we are willing to concede that Abel Tasman is capable of a sustained 7 furlong move we can agree that Smith did the right thing here, but as it turns out Smith was all out to hold off a filly with but a $50K minor stakes to her credit...and had to resort to some questionable tactics to do it.

You're in favor of riders reserving their horses for the final 1/4 no matter the circumstances. I like a jockey to be aggressive into slow paces and grab races by the throat, especially if they're on the best horse. We just disagree. Don't need eight paragraphs to reiterate that.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

You're in favor of riders reserving their horses for the final 1/4 no matter the circumstances.

How disingenuous of you.