What myths can be put to rest?

[cmorioles]

BC Juvenile winner can't win the Derby.
A horse needs at least three preps.
Beyer can't pick the winner.
Working too fast can hurt the horse.
Outside posts are better than inside posts.
Pletcher knows how to prepare a horse for the Derby.


What others?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Those six are great ones.

I guess I'd have to add....

If your riding the favorite, you can't go from 19th place to 3rd place without leaving the rail and ever having a straw in your path.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Soon this grand race will be handicapped like any other daily race, no things from past running to throw out.

[skippy3481]

While, I don't disagree that some of the myths were disspelled, I think in a field as big as this, that you trends are important to help exclude horses. On this derby, any horse that was off longer then 5 weeks got tossed.. I always thought the whole juvenile-derby deal had to do with the horses that typically win the juvenile(being earlier developers and bred for speed) then the ones who win the derby(typically later developing or ones that improved the most during their 3 year old year) Street sense was an atypical juvenile winner and a more typical derby winner. I guess my point is everyone has something that helps them eliminate horses, and just because it doesn't fit one year, doesn't mean its a bad trend.

Im starting to lean towards trainers with smaller barns. Naf man says let the horse take you where you need to go. Pletcher has 5 in. One man cannot be as personally attentive. Matz the year before. Pletcher had over 30 nominees. No way he can give personal attention. Pletcher obviously has a very good staff, but the days of the giant barn domination might be gone (Baffert, Lucas) for this one race that requires so much attention (and luck). Young horses that as two year olds need to be constantly reviewed. Naf man spent a lot of time on one very good animal. And if the animal had faltered and not shown him what he wanted to see, I feel fairly certain he would not have put him into the race. Why exactly did CQ take 8 weeks off? I dont think we got the real story. That could not have been the plan.

So the italicized piece is my major thought at this point, which is probably off thread, but there ya go.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by skippy3481

While, I don't disagree that some of the myths were disspelled, I think in a field as big as this, that you trends are important to help exclude horses. On this derby, any horse that was off longer then 5 weeks got tossed.. I always thought the whole juvenile-derby deal had to do with the horses that typically win the juvenile(being earlier developers and bred for speed) then the ones who win the derby(typically later developing or ones that improved the most during their 3 year old year) Street sense was an atypical juvenile winner and a more typical derby winner. I guess my point is everyone has something that helps them eliminate horses, and just because it doesn't fit one year, doesn't mean its a bad trend.

"On this derby, any horse that was off longer then 5 weeks got tossed."

hard spun was off 6 weeks and wins the race if street sense has to break stride at any point.

[randallscott35]

Somer is busy somewhere with a Sharpie.

[Danzig]

well, the two prep thing i felt wasn't that big an angle...didn't have a huge gap between the last horse to do it and yesterday.
i guess it just goes to show you that the right trainer, for the right horse, who he understands, can do the right thing and win it. much like matz last year.
also goes to show, that a smaller-time trainer (meaning a real hands on horsemen) such as matz, tagg, nafzger, can win this over a huge operation that can't possibly have enough individual attention paid by the 'trainer'.

[Cajungator26]

Well... one thing I WILL watch for is the horses coming over last minute from Keeneland. Pletcher didn't have a real final work over Churchill's surface with any of his horses (besides Sam P., right?)

[Danzig]

i think maybe todd should do more with the horses then just making sure he saddles them all come derby day. maybe a little more hands on throughout the spring?

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Danzig

well, the two prep thing i felt wasn't that big an angle...didn't have a huge gap between the last horse to do it and yesterday.
i guess it just goes to show you that the right trainer, for the right horse, who he understands, can do the right thing and win it. much like matz last year.
also goes to show, that a smaller-time trainer (meaning a real hands on horsemen) such as matz, tagg, nafzger, can win this over a huge operation that can't possibly have enough individual attention paid by the 'trainer'.

That's an excellent point Danzig. Megastables like Pletcher and Asmus don't just win b/c they have more horses in the race....Tagg and Servis and Matz and Nafzger....Couldn't be happier with these types of guys.

[byalip]

A good horse can overcome a donkey on his back...to wit, Curlin was good enough not to be hampered by that idiot Robbie Albarado.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Well... one thing I WILL watch for is the horses coming over last minute from Keeneland. Pletcher didn't have a real final work over Churchill's surface with any of his horses (besides Sam P., right?)

Good point, in the past, many trainers preferred to stay at Keeneland where it was a bit quieter and prepare for the Derby. Now, with the poly surface, things will probably change. It use to be something to look at...when a horse got to the track and whether he/she worked over it, then along came DWL and we heard "D Wayne off the plane" as he and others shipped in race day and won stakes all over the country. Poly is the future I suspect but many have pointed out that since a horse moves over it easier, they don't get the stamina (and possibly two year olds don't get the muscle/bone development) that horses working on dirt do. Carl had Street Sense at CD and it certainly didn't hurt. I will watch to see when he ships to Pimlico.
Regarding the angles, as Skippy said...they are helpful when used properly. I used them as I always do and still ended up with the winner as one of two horses I bet, last year I had Barbaro despite them...they are considerations/information not absolutes...a good horse can overcome trends, a great horse will overcome most anything. Saying Curlin disproved anything is ridicious, the 5LT race and 2yo race angles say "no horse has won"...Curlin didn't win...end of discussion! In fact he wasn't a serious factor. Yes, he had a rough trip...every year we hear from all the losers how rough a trip they had...it's part of the race!

[Pedigree Ann]

Street Sense was prepared the old-fashioned way. He raced from July to the start of November (end of October? I forget the exact date), then got the winter off. He didn't run again until mid-March, had plenty of time to grow up and develop into his frame. Secretariat had exactly the same sort of preparation, although he fit 3 races in before the Derby, not 2 -today's schedules would make a suitable 3 at 2-week intervals hard to find.

The thing he DIDN'T do was continue racing once every 5-6 weeks through the winter, which has become commonplace. A young horse who is continutally in race-training for 9 months will go off form or get injured at some point, unless it is Jim French, who ran his worst race off a 4-week rest. But Jimbo was a throwback, not a soft-boned Storm Cat descendent.

[skippy3481]

Yes, god i understand that about hard spun, in fact as i've stated several times, hard spun ran a hell of a race. However with 20 horses entered you have to find a way to eliminate some of them. This was one way i eliminated them. And last time i checked hard spun didn't win.

[cassie]

how much did the drug testing beforehand affect the pletcher, oneil ;asmussen horses?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by cassie

how much did the drug testing beforehand affect the pletcher, oneil ;asmussen horses?

all horses passed the test. and it was a surprise test, that ought to put that baby to rest.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by cassie

how much did the drug testing beforehand affect the pletcher, oneil ;asmussen horses?

Since it was a surprise and there were no positives I'm not sure why the question??

[cassie]

how do you know it really was a surprise?

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by cassie

how do you know it really was a surprise?

Yeah, maybe someone was on that grassy knoll, and those alien abductions...