How good is Big Brown?

[Riot]

I thought Smooth Air ran well. Well enough to contend in the Derby, I'm not sure. But he definitely ran best after BB. I actually thought Nistle's Crunch ran alright also.

I went back and watched the replay a few times, the other horses, to see if there's anyone else that did well. What did you like about the way Nistle's Crunch handled the cards he was dealt today?

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

hey i totally blew off b b s chances ..he stepped up and won very nice.. if he makes the derby..ill bet against him......hes a very good horse.congrats...too ieah and on the big day....

[Theatrical]

Originally Posted by Mumtaz

Smooth Air started his move just after going into the turn. IMO he'll be able to sustain a good long move in and out around traffic, if need be, on Derby Day.

Live as in at Gulfstream? If so - my hero! Did you check out BB feet? I want to know if he is currently wearing glue-on shoes or not. And I want to know if he pulled a nail or something came half-loose when he drifted out in the stretch (or not). And I want to know what his feet look like tomorrow morning (Steve? Ask on ATR Monday? Pleeze? )

He did have glue-on shoes on and they showed them up close. Custom made and $550.00 a pair.

[Riot]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

If it wasn't souped up - and the times posted in all three races are accurate - the runaway winner of the Bonnie Miss is a mid-level claimer, and those that she beat are all future 5K claimers.

Yeah, I hear that. I think it's apparent track speed can change markedly during the day. Tracks dry out (and get shaded and retain moisture, etc) - but I'd like to know what maintenance was done between races if we can find it out from someone.

[Riot]

Unless, of course, the Gulfstream timer malfunctioned. That never happens, does it?

I swear, there's some guy in maintenance there that trips over a cord on purpose just to cause figure makers to go crazy.

Unlike Oaklawn, where they just leave the effing starting gate blocking the finish line ....

[SOREHOOF]

Hoss you are right he was farther back after watching a replay, I liked the way he held on. He may have thought he won being that far back.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by cmfhb411

Are those projections your own ?
Or from a purchased par time sheet/service ?
I try to make my own projections off of my own homemade chart, so I'm just
curious.

Those are my own.

[jpops757]

Suprised that only one other poster has given any credit to the SA horse. First off of the boat and beat all but two.From as far off the pace I would think he has the most upside of any of the also rans.

[The Bid]

The South American is a crow, someone has to run third.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I posted this elsewhere, I'll do it here. The track was "suped" before the Fla Derby, not after:

Big Brown probably ran low 100s again, and the rest just stunk.

The raw figures for the three 9f races, pace and speed (projection):

R9: 92, 89 (I project this one as about a 98, so the track would be 9 slow)
R10: 128, 120 (I project this one as about 105, so suddenly the track is 15 fast?)
R12: 128, 123 (project at 110, so 13 fast)

Nice job by the super.

I think it's fair to give Big Brown some improvement, so call it 107, and that gives Smooth Air a very plausible high 90's (96-98). Don't know what to think of that last race of the day. Seems unbelievably fast. Very difficult to make figures, like old school GP.

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan

Do you really believe the shiat you are peddling?

FP he's not peddling shiat, he's dead on accurate here.

Originally Posted by The Bid

The South American is a crow, someone has to run third.

I love it when you call horses crows, I laugh every time You're right though, someone had to run 3rd, and he probably ran about the same as he did in Peru here, a mid 80's Beyer.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by jpops757

Suprised that only one other poster has given any credit to the SA horse. First off of the boat and beat all but two.From as far off the pace I would think he has the most upside of any of the also rans.

Credit for what?

He got an excellent pace to close into and was beaten double digits....

He did however manage to outrun similar styled Cool Gator...who could only manage a 5th as the 11th choice in the betting.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Credit for what?

He got an excellent pace to close into and was beaten double digits....

He did however manage to outrun similar styled Cool Gator...who could only manage a 5th as the 11th choice in the betting.

Hey, I got beat a similar margin in my ski race today.

I was a proud recipient of an Amstel Light blanket for that.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by jpops757

Suprised that only one other poster has given any credit to the SA horse. First off of the boat and beat all but two.From as far off the pace I would think he has the most upside of any of the also rans.

He's a very akward looking mover (don't really care for that style)... the Derby distance wouldn't be an issue for him though, that's for sure.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by jpops757

Suprised that only one other poster has given any credit to the SA horse. First off of the boat and beat all but two.From as far off the pace I would think he has the most upside of any of the also rans.

to me it wasn't all that impressive, 3rd, 12.5 lengths back. the comment says "outrun early, passed tired rivals". everyone chasing Big Brown ended up retreating, allowing those from the back half of the field to advance late.

[jpops757]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Credit for what?

He got an excellent pace to close into and was beaten double digits....

He did however manage to outrun similar styled Cool Gator...who could only manage a 5th as the 11th choice in the betting.

All the colts had the paceto run at and they melted. Only one horse ran these fractions{BB}.Maybe all the negative posters can get behind the CLASSY GOODLOOKING horse again and bet him down to 5/2.

[pick4]

Originally Posted by philcski

I think it's fair to give Big Brown some improvement, so call it 107, and that gives Smooth Air a very plausible high 90's (96-98). Don't know what to think of that last race of the day. Seems unbelievably fast. Very difficult to make figures, like old school GP.



FP he's not peddling shiat, he's dead on accurate here.



I love it when you call horses crows, I laugh every time You're right though, someone had to run 3rd, and he probably ran about the same as he did in Peru here, a mid 80's Beyer.

Are you guys talking in terms of BSF's?

I don't know what the par racing times are at GP. I do have the Beyer chart in front of me from his book Beyer on Speed. Big Brown's 1:48 for a 1 1/8 is a 122.

Beyer Speed Ratings for 1 1/8
Time BSF
1:48 122
-1 120
-2 119
-3 117
-4 115
1:49 113
-1 111
-2 108
-3 106
-4 105
1:50 104
-1 102
-2 100
-3 99
-4 97
1:51 96
-1 93
-2 90
-3 88
-4 87

These are the base numbers. Once they calculate the variant there might be some projection involved in giving these races a BSF.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by jpops757

All the colts had the paceto run at and they melted. Only one horse ran these fractions{BB}.Maybe all the negative posters can get behind the CLASSY GOODLOOKING horse again and bet him down to 5/2.

Who are you talking about?

Who's the classy good looking horse?

Fast paces best setup deep closers...not stalkers, pressers, or mid-pack types

[cmorioles]

The chart I am using counts 100ths, and BB ran almost 1/5 (.16) slower than 1:48 flat. That is the reason for the small difference.

[jpops757]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Who are you talking about?

Who's the classy good looking horse?

Fast paces best setup deep closers...not stalkers, pressers, or mid-pack types

Elysium Fields.

[Oaklawnfan]

Boy here's where you'll kill me about "Big Brown." He' s green, he'll bounce. Sorry