Do you think this is a really nice crop of 2 year olds? - Page 2

freddymo · #21 12-14-2010, 10:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

79

No biggie

Thunder Gulch · #22 12-14-2010, 10:59 AM

I think this could be an exceptional crop. It's hard to tell how deep it will be with everyone spacing out races so much nowadays, but there is little doubt that there are some really fast juveniles out there and there is reason to believe they can get classic distances.

RolloTomasi · #23 12-14-2010, 11:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Linny

Now it's a different game. Those colts that trainers see has 'classic types" are held out 'til Labor Day weekend (or nearly so) and get one race at Belmont (Champagne) then of the BCJ. Since the BCJ has proven such a poor predictor of success at 3, alot of folks are just skipping it (To Honor and Serve) and looking for alternatives.

I don't think trainers are that literal, to worry about races as "predictors" to the point that they would avoid running in a particular race, save for the genius Godolphin group and their laughable Ruler's Court debacle.

Anyways, you're mistaken about the BC Juvenile. Spend A Buck, Tank's Prospect, Chief's Crown (84); Danzig Connection (85); Alysheba, Bet Twice, Gulch (86); Easy Goer (88); Go And Go, Pleasant Tap (89); Best Pal (90); Pine Bluff, Dance Floor (91); Sea Hero (92); Tabasco Cat, Blumin Affair (93); Timber Country, Tejano Run (94); Editor's Note (95); Lemon Drop Kid, Cat Thief (98); Point Given, AP Valentine (00); Afleet Alex (04); Street Sense (06); Mine That Bird, Pioneerof The Nile (08); Lookin At Lucky (09). All Classic winners or Classic-placed. 17 of 25 Juveniles have produced at least one Classic winner.

To Honor And Serve had but a maiden win to his credit. He simply didn't have the credentials to take a shot at the BC.

RockHardTen1985 · #24 12-14-2010, 11:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by smartbid09

I'm really impressed with all the talent we have out there this year!

This is not a complete list, but look at some of the two year olds we have this year:

2 year old Colts
Uncle Mo, Boys At Tosconova, Pluck, To Honor And Serve, Premier Pegasus, Rouge Romance
2 year old fillies
Cathy’s Crunches, Awesome Feather, Winter Memories, Turbulent Descent, Dancinginherdreams, More Than Real

You actually took horses off your list because ****stick messed with you?
Stick to your opinion. I think those other 3 are all OK.

hockey2315 · #25 12-14-2010, 12:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

You actually took horses off your list because ****stick messed with you?
Stick to your opinion. I think those other 3 are all OK.

Weren't you already proved wrong about Stay Thirsty?

RockHardTen1985 · #26 12-14-2010, 12:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Weren't you already proved wrong about Stay Thirsty?

How exactly? Because I used him as a backup at 10-1?
I would take him over anything coming out of the Delta race, or anything pointing to the Hollywood G1.
He will be fine.

Dahoss · #27 12-14-2010, 01:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Weren't you already proved wrong about Stay Thirsty?

Yes

NTamm1215 · #28 12-14-2010, 01:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Yes

Stay Thirsty = Sam P.

King Glorious · #29 12-14-2010, 01:06 PM

Uncle Mo has the look of a hall of famer. Boys at Tosconova looks decent. I'm still holding out hope for Wine Police. The rest underwhelm me. Awesome Feather looks much the best of the fillies. The rest underwhelm me.

Dahoss · #30 12-14-2010, 01:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Stay Thirsty = Sam P.

HE HAS ALL THE TOOLS to be a triple crown contender.

NTamm1215 · #31 12-14-2010, 01:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss

HE HAS ALL THE TOOLS to be a triple crown contender.

I could see him taking after his two siblings and plugging along for a piece of one of the preps then hitting the board in the Belmont or something.

Linny · #32 12-14-2010, 01:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

I don't think trainers are that literal, to worry about races as "predictors" to the point that they would avoid running in a particular race, save for the genius Godolphin group and their laughable Ruler's Court debacle.

Anyways, you're mistaken about the BC Juvenile. Spend A Buck, Tank's Prospect, Chief's Crown (84); Danzig Connection (85); Alysheba, Bet Twice, Gulch (86); Easy Goer (88); Go And Go, Pleasant Tap (89); Best Pal (90); Pine Bluff, Dance Floor (91); Sea Hero (92); Tabasco Cat, Blumin Affair (93); Timber Country, Tejano Run (94); Editor's Note (95); Lemon Drop Kid, Cat Thief (98); Point Given, AP Valentine (00); Afleet Alex (04); Street Sense (06); Mine That Bird, Pioneerof The Nile (08); Lookin At Lucky (09). All Classic winners or Classic-placed. 17 of 25 Juveniles have produced at least one Classic winner.

To Honor And Serve had but a maiden win to his credit. He simply didn't have the credentials to take a shot at the BC.

I should have said "winning the Juvenile" is not a predictor of 3yo success. There has clearly been a decrease in the top to bottom quality of the BCJ since 2000. If you are not willing to go all out to win the BCJ, to some it might be better to look for other routes.
Few potential classic colts race before mid August. To Honor and Serve is typical. He debuted near the end of Saratoga and since he didn't win, his connections didn't see fit to try stakes as the Champagne is all that was available in NY. They got him his maiden win but by then it was too late to try the BC and why should they take a maiden winner and toss him to Uncle Mo and Boys at Toscanova and the better colts from Cali?
More and more "potential classic colts" are being handled this way. Ten years ago everyone was agog at Drysdale pointing to the Derby with FuPeg when he didn't break his maiden 'til Santa Anita. Now we're comfortable with the idea that the Derby or Preakness winner might not have ever raced yet.

RolloTomasi · #33 12-14-2010, 02:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Linny

There has clearly been a decrease in the top to bottom quality of the BCJ since 2000.

Not really. In addition to the classic colts: Macho Again, Street Cry, Burning Roma, City Zip, Scorpion, Dollar Bill, Noverre, Yonaguska (00); Repent, Publication, Came Home, Essence Of Dubai (01); Kafwain, Hold That Tiger, Zavata, Wando, Toccet (02); Sun King, Consolidator, Roman Ruler (04); Henny Hughes, Brother Derek, Private Vow (05); Circular Quay, Great Hunter, Scat Daddy, Stormello, King Of The Roxy, Teuflesberg (06); Pyro, Kodiak Kowboy, Tale Of Ekati (07); Munnings (08); Eskendereya, D'Funnybone (09) all came out to win Grade 1 or Grade 2 races subsequent to the Juvenile. Even the lowly '03 Juvenile had eventual Grade 1 turf horse Relaxed Gesture.

Certainly in the last few years some colts and fillies have bucked tradition (eg Curlin, Big Brown, Bernardini, Rags To Riches) but I hardly think it was necessarily by design. Physical issues seemed to hold those types back more than anything.

Going by this year's waif-like BC Juvenile, your theory would seem more sound. But if trainers were really "holding back" then you'd anticipate that races like the Remsen and Kentucky Jockey Club would have been deep, contentious races. That wasn't the case.

Instead, it looks like it will simply be a lean year. The reason for the odd campaigning this year by certain trainers (Pletcher, Asmussen, Dutrow) was probably a consequence of distinct physical problems with individual horses (Kantharos, perhaps Boys Of Toscanova), not an attempt to get to the Classics (8 months later) in a new, unorthodox manner.

smartbid09 · #34 12-14-2010, 09:05 PM

Let's Not forget that Frankel could be "one of the ones" so the Europeans hopefully will have a new super star to enjoy.... hopefully....

smartbid09 · #35 12-14-2010, 09:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Instead, it looks like it will simply be a lean year. The reason for the odd campaigning this year by certain trainers (Pletcher, Asmussen, Dutrow) was probably a consequence of distinct physical problems with individual horses (Kantharos, perhaps Boys Of Toscanova), not an attempt to get to the Classics (8 months later) in a new, unorthodox manner.

Rollo. Is there rumor of something wrong with boys? I was unaware of this...

RolloTomasi · #36 12-14-2010, 09:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by smartbid09

Rollo. Is there rumor of something wrong with boys? I was unaware of this...

Purely speculation on my part.

Indian Charlie · #37 12-14-2010, 09:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Going by this year's waif-like BC Juvenile, your theory would seem more sound. But if trainers were really "holding back" then you'd anticipate that races like the Remsen and Kentucky Jockey Club would have been deep, contentious races. That wasn't the case.

Waif-like??

RolloTomasi · #38 12-14-2010, 09:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Waif-like??

I used "light" earlier, so I didn't want to repeat myself.

Kasept · #39 01-03-2011, 09:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

BEST BEYERS: 2-year-olds (Main track only)

Juvenile Colts (1m or more)

Uncle Mo CD 06 Nov 1 1/16M 108
To Honor and Serve AQU 27 Nov 1 1/8M 102
Gourmet Dinner DED 20 Nov 1 1/16M 93
Boys At Tosconova CD 06 Nov 1 1/16M 101
Mucho Macho Man AQU 27 Nov 1 1/8M 99
To Honor and Serve AQU 06 Nov 1M 97
Buffum BEL 30 Oct 1M 96
Cool Blue Red Hot BEL 30 Oct 1M 96
Comma to the Top HOL 06 Nov 1 1/16M 95
To Honor and Serve BEL 02 Oct 1 1/16M 95
Mountain Town AQU 27 Nov 1 1/8M 94
Uncle Mo BEL 09 Oct 1M 94

Albertrani told ATR listeners Monday that BUFFUM has been plucked by Darley for the UAE Derby path and will ship soon to Dubai..

JerseyJ · #40 01-03-2011, 10:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

Albertrani told ATR listeners Monday that BUFFUM has been plucked by Darley for the UAE Derby path and will ship soon to Dubai..

Which means he'll not be heard from again until he comes off of a 6-9 month layoff at Satatoga in an allowance.