And The Winner Of The Belmont is........

munster705 · #1 05-04-2015, 01:10 PM

Drum roll please :0)

Keen Ice......

Granted I flushed some money down the toilet on this horse in the Derby, but the questions always is "can the horse get the distance"? f you guys have a minute, watch the Derby back. Keen Ice was literally the only horse moving forward from the back of the pack. I wish the fractions were there, but when you put up slow times and the best horses are in the lead you know the race is over. Keen Ice is bred to run forever and it sounds like the connections are already pointing him to the Belmont Stakes. The price will be right especially when AP wins in two weeks time.

Call me crazy, but I will be on Keen Ice again in 5 weeks time.

tywizard · #2 05-04-2015, 01:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by munster705

Drum roll please :0)

Keen Ice......

Granted I flushed some money down the toilet on this horse in the Derby, but the questions always is "can the horse get the distance"? f you guys have a minute, watch the Derby back. Keen Ice was literally the only horse moving forward from the back of the pack. I wish the fractions were there, but when you put up slow times and the best horses are in the lead you know the race is over. Keen Ice is bred to run forever and it sounds like the connections are already pointing him to the Belmont Stakes. The price will be right especially when AP wins in two weeks time.

Call me crazy, but I will be on Keen Ice again in 5 weeks time.

I'd suggest watching again. Frosted and Materiality closed more impressively. Not making any claims I'm just saying Keen Ice clearly wasn't the only to close.

Indian Charlie · #3 05-04-2015, 01:29 PM

You'll very likely get about the same result in the Belmont.

The derby pace will look like a meteorite blazing through the sky compared to the Belmont.

Danzig · #4 05-04-2015, 01:35 PM

belmont isn't typically a closers race.
and keen ice might get to elmont and detest the surface. some horses don't like big sandy, while some absolutely love it.

and how can we have horses not bred to get 10f, but then we have people saying there are horses bred to go long? who's right about the breeding?

and perhaps it's more a case of not training to go long? i have to think that the thing that affects these horses the most when trying the spring classics these days is that they don't train how they used to.

munster705 · #5 05-04-2015, 01:40 PM

I am merely just throwing it out there. It always seems like the Belmont surprises us with some crazy results. Will the pace be slower? Of course. But the horses won't be as spread out either. Keen Ice had the #1 breeding to go long in the Derby and I would imagine it would be the same for the Belmont. I am just not going to be interesting in betting AP at 2/5

RolloTomasi · #6 05-04-2015, 01:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig

and how can we have horses not bred to get 10f, but then we have people saying there are horses bred to go long?

That question is more all-or-nothing than Bayern (who is bred to go long).

The sire of Keen Ice has already sired one Belmont winner in a brief stud career and would have won the race himself had the race been restricted to colts and geldings. The winner of that 2007 Belmont, Rags To Riches, was sired by another Belmont winner, A.P. Indy, who was himself a son of a Belmont winner, Seattle Slew. Rags To Riches was also out of a dam which had already produced a Belmont winner (Jazil).

Perhaps you're right: horses are no longer bred to go long.

But some of them are bred to win the Belmont.

Thunder Gulch · #7 05-04-2015, 02:27 PM

I'd take Frosted right now if anyone is going to beat Pharoah. He'll be rested and ready back in NY.

NTamm1215 · #8 05-04-2015, 02:34 PM

Horses like Keen Ice almost never win the Belmont. But they sure do get lots of money.

ateamstupid · #9 05-04-2015, 02:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Horses like Keen Ice almost never win the Belmont. But they sure do get lots of money.

Yep. Ice Box, Denis of Cork, Dullahan, Commanding Curve, etc. The only somewhat recent horse I remember pulling off the Kentucky Derby close/Belmont win double is Jazil.

RolloTomasi · #10 05-04-2015, 02:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Yep. Ice Box, Denis of Cork, Dullahan, Commanding Curve, etc. The only somewhat recent horse I remember pulling off the Kentucky Derby close/Belmont win double is Jazil.

Summer Bird and Birdstone (the latter the sire of the other) also were passing tired horses in the Derby prior to a Belmont win.

Union Rags as well.

pointman · #11 05-04-2015, 03:02 PM

I'm amazed that People are trying to pick the winner of the Belmont a little less than two weeks before the Preakness has been run.

ninetoone · #12 05-04-2015, 03:03 PM

Dollar Bill closed to be within 5 or 6 lengths of Point Given in the Preakness & seemed like a pretty good bet in the Belmont at 6-1.....took the bait again on that one!!!!

Indian Charlie · #13 05-04-2015, 03:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ninetoone

Dollar Bill closed to be within 5 or 6 lengths of Point Given in the Preakness & seemed like a pretty good bet in the Belmont at 6-1.....took the bait again on that one!!!!

I remember Dollar Bill sucking away people's money more than any other horse that comes to mind.

RolloTomasi · #14 05-04-2015, 03:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pointman

I'm amazed that People are trying to pick the winner of the Belmont a little less than two weeks before the Preakness has been run.

You're like the lady in the live audience at a Jerry Springer taping that stands up and invariably proclaims, "Y'all need therapy!".

9 of the last 10 Belmont winners did not run in the Preakness.

But I guess we should at least wait for the Peter Pan or Dwyer or whatever they call it now.

3kings · #15 05-04-2015, 03:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pointman

I'm amazed that People are trying to pick the winner of the Belmont a little less than two weeks before the Preakness has been run.

Why all these threads? They should just be asking Don Guido, it could save a lot of typing.

knickslions2 · #16 05-04-2015, 03:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 3kings

Why all these threads? They should just be asking Don Guido, it could save a lot of typing.

Danzig · #17 05-04-2015, 03:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pointman

I'm amazed that People are trying to pick the winner of the Belmont a little less than two weeks before the Preakness has been run.

pointman · #18 05-04-2015, 03:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 3kings

Why all these threads? They should just be asking Don Guido, it could save a lot of typing.

Quote:

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Careful guys, you might be whacked!

RHT2004 · #19 05-04-2015, 04:29 PM

I dont get the Keen Ice love at all. Some very good cappers had him in the mix for the Derby, I didn't see it then and don't give him a prayer in the Belmont. He needs an allowance race. I guess its pointless to knock huge bombs, but where is his good race? I thought the Fair Grounds preps were the weakest of them all and he never really threatened in any of those races.
As for the Belmont my guess as of now would be Upstart or Frosted assuming they both skip the Preakness.

Indian Charlie · #20 05-04-2015, 04:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RHT2004

I dont get the Keen Ice love at all. Some very good cappers had him in the mix for the Derby, I didn't see it then and don't give him a prayer in the Belmont. He needs an allowance race. I guess its pointless to knock huge bombs, but where is his good race? I thought the Fair Grounds preps were the weakest of them all and he never really threatened in any of those races.
As for the Belmont my guess as of now would be Upstart or Frosted assuming they both skip the Preakness.

Sal actually thinks Keen Ice ran a great race, considering the 'super slow' pace of the Derby.

That's nonsensical, of course.