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LOL! You can be really funny sometimes.
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"Until one has loved an animal, part of their soul remains unawaken. |
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The real horses of the year (1986-2020) Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine |
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it's really curious to me that there seem to be alot of near the front runners and deep closers ... it is really difficult to win the Derby from either spot...
the deep closers need the perfect trip...( Gia-como) Who fits the mid pack mold that could steal this thing???? Great Hunter? Street Sense/Tiago/Circular Quay all come from a good distance back... There are alot of quality horses out there but I can't see the stand out!!!! There is only a few preps left... This is either a handicappers dream or a handicappers nightmare....
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They were both coming home like turtles. And the fact that Nobiz was pushing the pace and collapsing doesnt fair well for Sightseeing. He couldnt even go by in a pedestrian final 1/8th
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While I'm no real fan of Nobiz, being a prototypical "hype" horse, there's no way anybody gets by him from THAT field last Saturday. Sightseeing had dead aim on him and couldn't finish the deal. 1 1/8m, 1 1/4 miles, 1 1/2 miles or 10 miles; it won't matter.
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please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you |
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please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you |
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please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you |
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please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you |
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please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you |
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NT |
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He gets by, he doesn't get by . . .
I watched the race -- numerous times, very closely. Taped it, watched it on replays, etc. I am not a trainer -- and I am waiting for a few of the resident trainers to give their opinion -- however, I think there are a few observations here, and maybe they can go either way. Did this colt improve off his previous performance? Forget about the #'s and don't get fanatical. Tagg had some issues that needed to be worked out, and he certainly didn't want this colt running some monster, super impressive race with a freaky # (we've seen those colts before, that's right, not after finishing up the track in the Derby). The colt improved vis a vis his issues. Tagg is an excellent horseman -- and that's some of his peer's opinions. He knows how to and wants this colt to be ready for the great performance in the Derby. On the other hand -- was this a picture perfect, 100% problem free performance. To me, and I hate sounding like an internet or arm-chair trainer, but that colt did not look at all comfortable down the backstretch. They were fighting each other there and the colt never really got settled. By the time he might have been ready to settle, it was too late -- it was time to go! As much as I've liked this horse from day one, my knee-jerk reaction/feeling is that you have that kind of horse, going that way, in the Derby -- well, it doesn't play out well. I think Tagg still has some work to do, or it just is what it is perhaps. I don't know. Hopefully this colt can relax and be more managable. Eric Last edited by ELA : 04-11-2007 at 05:39 PM. |
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see the part that you are omitting, and part of why it seems so simple. Is that you are omitting the fact that we got twenty horses in the derby. THere are bound to be 5 or more types that want the lead. You cant help but set torrid fractions. You know on another board someone mentioned the "well known fact" that opening fractions in the derby are usually hot. WEll yeah, perhaps you dont agree but in any event this is another reason to think that your theory is not so simple as you make it sound. Another part that complicates it is we are seeing a lot of good miler types being asked to do 8 1/2; 9 f at this time of year and then asked to go 10f in another month. It is not a long time we have to evaluate these types and determine if they go onto get 10f or not. We dont have a million races or even 3 or 4 to evaluate them on the ability to go 10f. So you have to start looking at the final fractions very closely. Another problem w/ Jazil example (prolly a bad example on my part) is they had him closing from 20 lengths back in that Wood but I have my doubts; we have seen enuf messed up charts having to do with closers that move up in between calls. (Geez anyone remember last years derby chart and how effed up it was? Derek being headed by Jazil in midstretch?? Bris had Jazil home in 23.6?? The front runners ran 26.5 in the fourth quarter??? oh I could go on). Someone above mentioned how many front runners and closers there seem to be. In my opinion this year actually seems to have less closers than usual. I dunno maybe its me, or maybe some horse that's a stalker will wind up being a closer in May. Like Fu Peg, there are a few derby winners that had to do that. I dont see the front runners being all that suicidal this year, I think this years field seems to have an inordinate amount of pressers e.g. AGS, Cowtown, etc. |