Annual Thoro-Graph Promo (Free) - Page 2

sumitas · #21 12-27-2006, 01:34 PM

i do prefer the quik sheets...i prefer a horse's more recent performance as opposed to comparing them to a year earlier. the quiks are clear to me and i want to avoid the "paralysis of analysis"...in other words the quiks give me a feel and that's the best tool for me.

Kasept · #22 12-27-2006, 01:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

Brian, what he said....

Let me ask you this Steve, how often are you using the Thoro-Pattern numbers? As many know, I have to try and eliminate as much frustration from my handicapping because I am TILT city if I get frustrated. I have found that I rely on them way too much and look back and say to myself "He had a 65% chance to top or pair and I can't even get that" Thus I then get to visit Tilt City

TR,

I give them a tacit glance. I'm much more interested in the trainer's pattern under specific circumstances (3rd off layoff; 2nd lifetime start; 3rd start as 3yo, etc..) than I am with the "universe". Since we want horses that are possible to GO AGAINST universal history and hence should be a price, it's not that important to me what "most" horses do as embodied by the Thoro-Pattern.

brianwspencer · #23 12-27-2006, 01:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

....
....
....
Does that give you a better understanding of it?

very much so, it was sort of what I thought --

so those three numbers in the "set" are always the horse's last three races, correct?

so if the horse's last three are the (12-12-17), but his best figure was four races back, when he ran a 9.....the percentages only relate to the horse running back to, or better than a 12, right? They don't worry about the best lifetime figure -- just the percentage likelihood that the horse will run back to, or near the 12 (the best figure in the recent three-start set), correct?

Scav · #24 12-27-2006, 01:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

TR,

I give them a tacit glance. I'm much more interested in the trainer's pattern under specific circumstances (3rd off layoff; 2nd lifetime start; 3rd start as 3yo, etc..) than I am with the "universe". Since we want horses that are possible to GO AGAINST universal history and hence should be a price, it's not that important to me what "most" horses do as embodied by the Thoro-Pattern.

So you use those numbers that are always at the end of the track download. I have NEVER looked at those. I might have to start getting into those a little more.

Scav · #25 12-27-2006, 01:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

so those three numbers in the "set" are always the horse's last three races, correct?

Yes

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

so if the horse's last three are the (12-12-17), but his best figure was four races back, when he ran a 9.....the percentages only relate to the horse running back to, or better than a 12, right? They don't worry about the best lifetime figure -- just the percentage likelihood that the horse will run back to, or near the 12 (the best figure in the recent three-start set), correct?

the 9 would be considered his top and those percentages would be based on 9 being the top. The '12' would be an off and the 17 would be an 'X'

SniperSB23 · #26 12-27-2006, 01:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

the 9 would be considered his top and those percentages would be based on 9 being the top. The '12' would be an off and the 17 would be an 'X'

So when a horse runs in the BC Sprint and is then running in $5K claimers several years later it will still be based on the horse running to his lifetime best?

sumitas · #27 12-27-2006, 01:56 PM

Exactly Steve, when you see a horse that you "know" is live, at a price, you have arrived...The ferocious Aq battler Like Now in the Gotham is an example. he was 42-1 , had the form cycle, and won that tough race earlier this year.

SniperSB23 · #28 12-27-2006, 01:57 PM

Also, I'm looking at a horse that has: Prev Top 8^3, Pair-Pair-Top (8^3, 8^3, 5^2) and a Top % of 26. Does that mean there is a 26% of improving on the 8 that was the prev top or on the 5 which is the new top?

brianwspencer · #29 12-27-2006, 02:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Also, I'm looking at a horse that has: Prev Top 8^3, Pair-Pair-Top (8^3, 8^3, 5^2) and a Top % of 26. Does that mean there is a 26% of improving on the 8 that was the prev top or on the 5 which is the new top?

i'm confused about that as well -- what if the horse ran a 1 three years ago?

Does the "top" percentage speak to running a 1 or a 5? The percentage line won't show that 1 as his "prev top" -- there were several at HAW yesterday like that.

Scav · #30 12-27-2006, 02:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

So when a horse runs in the BC Sprint and is then running in $5K claimers several years later it will still be based on the horse running to his lifetime best?

I 'think' the answer to this is Yes. Steve will be able to confirm

Scav · #31 12-27-2006, 02:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Also, I'm looking at a horse that has: Prev Top 8^3, Pair-Pair-Top (8^3, 8^3, 5^2) and a Top % of 26. Does that mean there is a 26% of improving on the 8 that was the prev top or on the 5 which is the new top?

26% chance that he runs a number better then 5^2

Scav · #32 12-27-2006, 02:15 PM

Get Shake you Down's numbers, which shoudl be available for today. and See what his 'Prev Top' number is. I think that should be his career top

sumitas · #33 12-27-2006, 02:21 PM

where was entered and in what race ?

SniperSB23 · #34 12-27-2006, 02:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

Get Shake you Down's numbers, which shoudl be available for today. and See what his 'Prev Top' number is. I think that should be his career top

Just checked it and that is correct, he was actually running very well early this year though. He had a 1% chance of running a career best today if he didn't scratch!

brianwspencer · #35 12-27-2006, 02:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Just checked it and that is correct, he was actually running very well early this year though. He had a 1% chance of running a career best today if he didn't scratch!

ok, so then the percentage associated with the likelihood of running a "top" refers to the single best number ever?

just clarifying.

sumitas · #36 12-27-2006, 02:31 PM

I received an email that i thought stated that i can have free downloads on 2 days; 12/26 and 1/1 ...?

brianwspencer · #37 12-27-2006, 02:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sumitas

I received an email that i thought stated that i can have free downloads on 2 days; 12/26 and 1/1 ...?

between now and the 31st everything is free. just go as if you're going to buy it and the charge should be $0

SniperSB23 · #38 12-27-2006, 02:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Just checked it and that is correct, he was actually running very well early this year though. He had a 1% chance of running a career best today if he didn't scratch!

Actually I think I misread it. He actually ran -4 several years back but ran a 0^1 at the start of January which is what is listed as his previous top. So there must be some sort of limit for how far it goes back for the previous top.

golfer · #39 12-27-2006, 05:49 PM

For what it's worth, I've been using Thoro-sheets for about 2 years. Initially, to save paper and ink, I used the Thoro-quick, but I have since switched to the full sheets (print 2 sides, uses 1/2 the paper), it's just easier to get a feel for the patterns, spacing, etc... The pattern percentages are a guide, only use them to cement your opinion one way or the other. As I told Steve a few weeks ago, just when I think I have mastered reading and interpreting these things, I have an o-fer, and have to go back to the drawing board. But I plan on down-loading a bunch for Saturday.

Scav · #40 12-27-2006, 06:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by golfer

For what it's worth, I've been using Thoro-sheets for about 2 years. Initially, to save paper and ink, I used the Thoro-quick, but I have since switched to the full sheets (print 2 sides, uses 1/2 the paper), it's just easier to get a feel for the patterns, spacing, etc... The pattern percentages are a guide, only use them to cement your opinion one way or the other. As I told Steve a few weeks ago, just when I think I have mastered reading and interpreting these things, I have an o-fer, and have to go back to the drawing board. But I plan on down-loading a bunch for Saturday.

Completely agree golfer. The second I start struting like a peacock, I GET SMOKED the next day.