Weekend Beyers: Blind Luck 104; Sidney's 100; AmLion 98

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It was circular logic to annoy DrugS.

By the way, you are either poorly evaluating this year's crop of NY Bred 3YOs or not really thinking it through....or both.

More of a joke than an analysis on YT- I honestly haven't been watching the NYB 3yo's like I usually do.

I blame it on living in Kentucky- like all the rest of my problems!

[blackthroatedwind]

They're way above average.

[asudevil]

This is enjoyable schit.....

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by philcski

Quite frankly, the Illinois Derby figures have been indefensibly high in the past few years (several of the runners never came close to repeating their number) and it's possible they took the low end of the range when they punched the 98 because of it. Not like anyone watches any other races from Hawthorne to know if the number is good in context.

Not the last 2.

Musket Man won last year with a 98 and was 3rd in both the Derby and Preakness with 96 and 106.

Recapturetheglory took advantage of a strong inside-speed bias and won the ILLI Derby two years ago with a 102. He only ran a 92 in the KY Derby, but broke from post 18, was wide while pressing a solid pace, only a head back after a mile and gave ground late.

Denis of Cork ran a 88 Beyer in the ILLI Derby against the bias RTG took advantage of .. he ran a 97 in the Derby and 93 in the Belmont when 3rd and 2nd.

Even if you want to go back to Cowtown Cat's bias aided win and Sweetnorthernsaint's big win .. both were repeated .. Cowtown Cat was beaten only 3.5 lengths to Street Sense at Saratoga and got a slightly better number and SNS was 2nd in the Preakness to Bernardini with an identical number two races later.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Is the difference in Blind Luck Friday at OP versus Blind Luck at DMR, SA and HOL all that tough to figure? There was a slight surface switch involved..

I think the HOL#(93) versus the OP#(104) has a ton of personal bias involved. That 93 he gave out should of made him totally useless as a figure maker for racing west of the Rockies. He just can't do it. They're both huge efforts, and not 11 points apart. He just has no credibility when synthetics are involved. I don't agree with Fathead about her Anita races (she just doesn't like Pro-ride much,) but the Hollywood race is not 11 points worse than that Fantasy effort. That's just some common Eastern Bullsht. He has zero reason to change, because his friends will bend over backwards to destroy any opposition.

[alysheba4]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Oh yeah, speed figures are often used in Eclipse decisions.

You used to be much smarter. Have you been eating peyote?

....the better question is,where can one find peyote?

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

She wins the Oaks if she's not blocked the length of the stretch -- which would've been a ridiculously huge accomplishment. Combined with the Las Virgenes, where Evening Jewel was 'supposed' to win, one gets a sense of how good this filly is. Then, she comes off the surface that supposedly 'favors' her running style and runs what appears to be an identical type of race (haven't done the charts for this yet.).

All I want is some consistency. I want the Beyers to be able to show that this is a good horse, whether on synthetics or dirt --- as she now has proven. Clearly, there are horses that are better on one surface over another but is this really the case here? Did this filly suddenly get good by running a respectable number or was she always good? (note: I don't know what she's run in the past and have made the assumption that her peak was around 90).

I really don't want to get too deep into this because it is a very old topic. Speed figures measure final time. However, on synthetics, final time is often irrelevant. The pace is so slow, especially in routes, that horses are never going to run figures like they do on dirt.

Now, if you want Beyer figures to measure something other than final time, maybe they could be made more accurate, but it is still very hard to do. In racing, the goal isn't to run as fast as possible, it is to win the race. On dirt, these often amount to the same thing. On turf and rubber, that simply is not the case.

So again, I'm not sure what you want Beyer to do. His figures have never purported to do anything but measure final time. On rubber, final time is a very small part of determining how good a horse happens to be.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I really don't want to get too deep into this because it is a very old topic. Speed figures measure final time. However, on synthetics, final time is often irrelevant. The pace is so slow, especially in routes, that horses are never going to run figures like they do on dirt.

Now, if you want Beyer figures to measure something other than final time, maybe they could be made more accurate, but it is still very hard to do. In racing, the goal isn't to run as fast as possible, it is to win the race. On dirt, these often amount to the same thing. On turf and rubber, that simply is not the case.

So again, I'm not sure what you want Beyer to do. His figures have never purported to do anything but measure final time. On rubber, final time is a very small part of determining how good a horse happens to be.

I think BEYERS do a disservice to those that don't have a firm grasp of the game. That's why we're constantly subjected to the same comments about horses 'improving'. I clearly realize that BEYERS don't account for pace, nor for the surface difference, and the nuances that come with it; yet, they continue to play such a huge role in the game. Comments like 'not fast enough', when the reference is to FINAL TIME, really have no part in the game of anyone who understands even the basics of racing. Beyer is stuck between a rock and a hard place. His figures are 'fine' for dirt, as pace doesn't play that much of a role (at least not the primary role it does on synthetics) but they fail woefully in cases where the 'type' of races determines how 'fast' a race is run. In other words, he CAN'T RECONCILE his DIRT with his SYNTHETIC figures. And, thus, he (and his supporters) really should not be commenting on the ability of horses that run on different surfaces. This would result in:

1) less confusing/comical situations for those who have a gauge as to the ability of a given horse

2) the Beyer camp relaxing their (equally comical) campaign against synthetic horses

This is not to say that there's a way to reconcile these numbers, however. It's just an intractable situation if only speed is involved.

[blackthroatedwind]

The agenda is yours Fat Man....not Beyer's.

It is every person's responsibility to learn and understand these things. I won't argue that " racing " hasn't done a good job over the years explaining these things to the masses, and too many people continue to lead others in the absolute wrong direction, but ultimately these concepts that CJ laid out aren't that complicated. There are two factors...one is a better job needs to be done to educate....but the bigger one is that people need to be willing to listen....really listen.

Simply falling on the misplaced Beyer hatred is specifically NOT listening.

[the_fat_man]

[quote=blackthroatedwind;632714]The agenda is yours Fat Man....not Beyer's.
Simply falling on the misplaced Beyer hatred is specifically NOT listening.[quote]

Exactly. It's all on me. I mean, I was bashing Beyer(s) way before Beyerites were bashing synthetics.

I have an agenda:

1) crush the BEYERITE paradigm

2) crush the Pick(3)4(6) paradigm

Come on, Bro. The game is beatable without having to steer all the neophytes in the wrong direction.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Beyer is stuck between a rock and a hard place. His figures are 'fine' for dirt, as pace doesn't play that much of a role (at least not the primary role it does on synthetics) but they fail woefully in cases where the 'type' of races determines how 'fast' a race is run. In other words, he CAN'T RECONCILE his DIRT with his SYNTHETIC figures. And, thus, he (and his supporters) really should not be commenting on the ability of horses that run on different surfaces.

Can you guess who wrote the following in 1993:

"Racing in England and France, in particular is utterly foreign to an American; horses gallop along in a tight pack in virtual slow motion during the early stages of a race and don't accelerate in earnest until they turn into the stretch. As a result, their final times are unimportant, and speed figures would be useless as a handicapping tool."

The answer is.....Andrew Beyer (Beyer on Speed, p 149).
You make it sound as if by making speed figures for horses that run on synthetic or turf Beyer and other figure makers are engaged in some kind of deceitful fraud. I don't think that's the case. As the quotation above illustrates, Beyer has always been very open about what figures are, and - just as importantly - what they are not. If other people use speed figures as some sort of gospel truth when it comes to synthetic and turf horses, then that is on them, not him. As CJ pointed out, since the figures merely involve the final time, it strikes me that it is up to the individual horseplayer to determine if the final time (and therefore a speed figure) is important or not in a given race.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The track at Hawthorne was incredible slow ... I wonder if they cut this race loose to get it where they could make it as slow as they did .. or if they just had virtually every single horse running below form all day long?

The variant was not split. I'm also not sure how you think the track was "incredibly slow".

The winner of the 1st was given a lifetime top in career start 24. It was 6 points higher than any in his last 10.

The winner of the 3rd was given a 61 after recording 54, 65, 67 his last three, 54 most recent.

The winner of the 4th was given a 57 after running seven straight races between 53 and 64.

The winner of the 5th was given a 75 after running his career high, a 74, in his previous race. This was start number 17.

The winner of the 9th was given a 92 after his last 3 of 51, 82, 89. He did come off a layoff and had some nice 100+ back numbers. The runner up will get an 88, a lifetime top in career start number 19.

Again, all used the same variant, including the Illinois Derby.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Speed figures measure final time. However, on synthetics, final time is often irrelevant. The pace is so slow, especially in routes, that horses are never going to run figures like they do on dirt.

I posted this in another thread, but the figures for the 9F races at Aqueduct on Saturday seem too high, for the reason quoted above. Given the slow pace of each, the final time of both races seemed a little slow for how the track was overall playing Saturday.

Eskendereya was very impressive, especially in comparison to the slow come home time for the Excelsior, but both of these races were contested in the manner that we often see in turf/synthetic races and typically result in final figures slower than the actual performance may warrant.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

I posted this in another thread, but the figures for the 9F races at Aqueduct on Saturday seem too high, for the reason quoted above. Given the slow pace of each, the final time of both races seemed a little slow for how the track was overall playing Saturday.

Eskendereya was very impressive, especially in comparison to the slow come home time for the Excelsior, but both of these races were contested in the manner that we often see in turf/synthetic races and typically result in final figures slower than the actual performance may warrant.

I would disagree because for the Excelsior, the pace was exactly what I would have predicted for the final time. I don't think it was slow at all for that track, just average.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I would disagree because for the Excelsior, the pace was exactly what I would have predicted for the final time. I don't think it was slow at all for that track, just average.

They were both paceless races on paper, and played that way out on the track. The Excelsior was particularly ugly through the stretch, as evidenced by what visually appeared to be Nite Light "coming again" when he was empty on the turn. To justify the Wood figure, it appears that projections were partly made off of what the Excelsior participants normally run - a tough to justify projection based on the way that race played out on the track.

There were two 7F races that were run in 1:21 and change, and NY-bred MSW horses cut a 44 and change half, so the track was not slow. The final time of the Wood was the third slowest in the past 14 years; that's largely a function of the early pace. Still, it gets a higher figure than either the Carter or Bay Shore, which were run in pretty representative time. Maybe, we'll have to agree to disagree but I don't think the figures for the two-turn races make sense.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I would disagree because for the Excelsior, the pace was exactly what I would have predicted for the final time. I don't think it was slow at all for that track, just average.

The Excelsior was one FUNKY race. This was the, at least, 3rd time on Saturday that a horse made a late run on the inside to get 2nd, when it appeared hopelessly beaten earlier, and the outside horse appeared to be running on quick sand.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

They were both paceless races on paper, and played that way out on the track. The Excelsior was particularly ugly through the stretch, as evidenced by what visually appeared to be Nite Light "coming again" when he was empty on the turn. To justify the Wood figure, it appears that projections were partly made off of what the Excelsior participants normally run - a tough to justify projection based on the way that race played out on the track.

There were two 7F races that were run in 1:21 and change, and NY-bred MSW horses cut a 44 and change half, so the track was not slow. The final time of the Wood was the third slowest in the past 14 years; that's largely a function of the early pace. Still, it gets a higher figure than either the Carter or Bay Shore, which were run in pretty representative time. Maybe, we'll have to agree to disagree but I don't think the figures for the two-turn races make sense.

Fair enough, but one thing I know is that both 9f routes, in relation to final time, were not paceless. The Wood was mildly slow on raw figures, and the older horses were exactly dead on.

On raw times, the Excelsior had a raw pace figure (Beyer Scale) of 92 and a raw speed figure of 92. The Wood had a raw pace figure of 95 and a speed figure of 105. I'm using the 6f time for the pace calls.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Fair enough, but one thing I know is that both 9f routes, in relation to final time, were not paceless. The Wood was mildly slow on raw figures, and the older horses were exactly dead on.

On raw times, the Excelsior had a raw pace figure (Beyer Scale) of 92 and a raw speed figure of 92. The Wood had a raw pace figure of 95 and a speed figure of 105. I'm using the 6f time for the pace calls.

I think part of it is people don't realize that the Aqueduct 6F timer at 9F is a little late and when 1:13 comes up on the screen it "feels" slow, especially compared to the 1-turn 9F at Belmont.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

The winner of the 3rd was given a 61 after recording 54, 65, 67 his last three, 54 most recent.

Yeah - and a 74, 70, and 74 in his 3 starts before that.

So, in victory, he was lengths slower than in five of his last 6 races. The 54 was when well beaten on a sloppy sealed track.

Everyone else in that field also went backwards. Some severly.

Originally Posted by cmorioles

The winner of the 4th was given a 57 after running seven straight races between 53 and 64.

Four of his last five races were between 61 and 64 - and his last was a 63. He won by 2+ lengths at 5/2 but still ran a couple lengths worse than normal.

Originally Posted by cmorioles

The winner of the 5th was given a 75 after running his career high, a 74, in his previous race. This was start number 17.

Yes - a 3/1 shot winner improved over his last race by one point when he was beaten a couple lengths at the same class level.

Originally Posted by cmorioles

The winner of the 9th was given a 92 after his last 3 of 51, 82, 89. He did come off a layoff and had some nice 100+ back numbers. The runner up will get an 88, a lifetime top in career start number 19.

Yeah the winner had obviously returned to ok form ... but he also had a four race stretch of 100, 101, 106, and 99 last year. The 9/1 shot who ran 2nd ran 2 points faster than last time .. and a lot of beaten horses made big backward moves.

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Again, all used the same variant, including the Illinois Derby.

It seems like 1 point was shaved off of the ILL Derby... and since it was longer than those other races and involved more running into head-wind .. shouldn't it be the other way if any?

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by philcski

I think part of it is people don't realize that the Aqueduct 6F timer at 9F is a little late and when 1:13 comes up on the screen it "feels" slow, especially compared to the 1-turn 9F at Belmont.

Huh??? I've never heard of timer problems at Aqueduct on the main track. The turf course - where races are hand-timed, yes, but never the main track.

The pace is what it is, no matter when it comes up on the screen. A half in 49.1 and 6F in 1:13+ is slow for a grade I dirt race, whether contested around one or two turns. If you don't believe me, listen to Mike Hushion who described the Excelsior in tomorrow's DRF as a "paceless race." The same article described the pace of the Wood as "excruciatingly slow."