3/11-12 (SA): SA H., Kilroe, Tr. Bend (G1's), Felipe (G2); Santa Ana (G2)

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I thought it was a "We don't know what the hell to do with this big, oafish, need the lead cripple so...turf!"

Hell, probably that too. Is the horse gonna be 4-1 or less though?

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Hell, probably that too. Is the horse gonna be 4-1 or less though?

Good question. I would think so. You're probably supposed to make him a slight ML favorite over Bolo. Here's what I'd make it....

1 Bal a Bali (BRZ) 8
2 Flamboyant (FR) 12
3 Bolo 3
4 Dortmund 5/2
5 Ring Weekend 6
6 Conquest Enforcer 7/2
7 What a View 9/2

[taxicab]

Gormley seems a nice sort,would expect a good race out of him.
Ann Arbor Eddie could be a sleeper,he caught a surface he didn't handle in his last..........plus,he's really improved when getting a distance of ground.
And somebody please explain to me why the cross country ship to run Bluegrass Envy in this spot...........easily wins the award for the stupidest move of 2017.

Silent Bird is a machine.......looks the one in the TB.
Can Kobe's Back ever get the gate right ?

Bolo & What a View sure are fond of SA.
Bolo got a perfect trip in his last,he can be had as the chalk.
Bejarano hasn't ridden well the entire meet(perhaps due to injury),he did Ring Weekend no favors in the Arcadia.
Dortmund loses the hood,so you would expect him to sit........will he grass ?
Ring Weekend on top.
Dortmund/What a View maybe.

So.....
The Big Cap sure has a lot of grass friendly types in it.
Two ways to look at it:
Midnight Storm skates with no other early lick in the race.
Shaman Ghost just ran behind Arrogate & Gun Runner.
Pick your Poison.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by taxicab

Ann Arbor Eddie could be a sleeper,he caught a surface he didn't handle in his last..........plus,he's really improved when getting a distance of ground.

Not sure if it was the surface. Gutierrez gave one of the worst rides of all time last out. Sent the horse to the lead the first part, then allowed the colt to fall back on the backstretch, then inexplicably sent the horse back to the lead with an early bid right into the teeth of the pace. The horse fought hard through the lane and was DQ'd for his efforts when he got tired lugged out.

That said, despite the gut-busting effort, it was predictable that Reddam et al. would want to wheel right back without letting the horse recover. Expecting the horse to go backwards, especially with no whiff of a jockey change anywhere in sight.

And somebody please explain to me why the cross country ship to run Bluegrass Envy in this spot...........easily wins the award for the stupidest move of 2017.

If I had to guess, Bluegrass Envy might stay in CA post-race, as the owner has several horses there, most noticeably Imperative who runs in the Big Cap later on the card.

Dortmund loses the hood,so you would expect him to sit........will he grass ?

Dortmund only wore blinkers for his last 2, which appeared to be a desperation move on the part of Baffert when the horse's form was tailing off (or he just wanted to soften up California Chrome in the race before the BC).

The Big Cap sure has a lot of grass friendly types in it.
Two ways to look at it:
Midnight Storm skates with no other early lick in the race.
Shaman Ghost just ran behind Arrogate & Gun Runner.
Pick your Poison.

I'll take a flyer on Hi Happy. Some improvement in his last start from his US debut and now adding Lasix first time. He won some important races in Argentina.

[NTamm1215]

Jon White took the prudent approach and stayed on the fence with the line. I had Ring Weekend a little high given the expected race dynamics, but I think Dortmund is going to go off lower than 4-1.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Jon White took the prudent approach and stayed on the fence with the line. I had Ring Weekend a little high given the expected race dynamics, but I think Dortmund is going to go off lower than 4-1.

Dortmund is not going off at 4/1, more like 5/2.

I am on the Ring Weekend bandwagon as well with the race dynamics. Guess we should all save our money.

The real question is what Bolo shows up, the one that is overly aggressive and fights to settle or the one who when he does runs like a legit grade 1 horse. Even his last race he was acting goofy in the first turn.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

The real question is what Bolo shows up, the one that is overly aggressive and fights to settle or the one who when he does runs like a legit grade 1 horse. Even his last race he was acting goofy in the first turn.

He seems at his best first off the layoff. That last race was fairly unimpressive, he looked dead in the water on the far turn and then suddenly resurged. What A View was really smoking up front and Conquest Enforcer has wilted against his elders in 3 attempts, so the race looks like it fell apart late. That makes Ring Weekend, a dead closer, even more suspect (never mind the barn's 0-for-16 record at the meet).

That said, its basically the same field, but that just pulls me towards the new shooters. Flamboyant has had a nice tune up race and is training forwardly. He got some fast paces last year over this course and delivered. The cutback might be a little sharp but if the race collapses again with all this pace, it probably won't be an issue.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

I'll take a flyer on Hi Happy. Some improvement in his last start from his US debut and now adding Lasix first time. He won some important races in Argentina.

His Nacional on dirt: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=inAGVZwFt2s

[RHT2004]

Love Isotherm

[cakes44]

Certainly worth a shot.

[Holybull1]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Good question. I would think so. You're probably supposed to make him a slight ML favorite over Bolo. Here's what I'd make it....

1 Bal a Bali (BRZ) 8
2 Flamboyant (FR) 12
3 Bolo 3
4 Dortmund 5/2
5 Ring Weekend 6
6 Conquest Enforcer 7/2
7 What a View 9/2

We'll know when the real morning line comes out, which should be around noon on Saturday or so (sarcasm). Jon White, we love you but the last-minute morning lines are just not fan friendly.

Nick, I think CE and RW will be lower than this, but I'm hoping your line is close. Either way, everyone should get a square price on whomever you like here. Very nice race.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Good question. I would think so. You're probably supposed to make him a slight ML favorite over Bolo. Here's what I'd make it....

1 Bal a Bali (BRZ) 8
2 Flamboyant (FR) 12
3 Bolo 3
4 Dortmund 5/2
5 Ring Weekend 6
6 Conquest Enforcer 7/2
7 What a View 9/2

6/1 on RW? I think he is best horse in race

[dpkovalesky]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Good question. I would think so. You're probably supposed to make him a slight ML favorite over Bolo. Here's what I'd make it....

1 Bal a Bali (BRZ) 8
2 Flamboyant (FR) 12
3 Bolo 3
4 Dortmund 5/2
5 Ring Weekend 6
6 Conquest Enforcer 7/2
7 What a View 9/2

Have to think with some big workout reports Dortmund gets bet hard..this feels like a pretty accurate line to me. I'm willing to take conquest enforcer even with the quarter crack excuse last time...Interesting race from a pace perspective too