The best team in the NFL ... The Pats .. so say A-Team's stats

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I thought I'd enjoy what was my final day as a Pats fan with this stellar post.

According to Football Outsiders, the New England Patriots are the best team in the NFL.

It gets better: The plays that signified that win (on Monday Night against the Dolphins) had no bearing on their measurements.


“The Patriots get no credit for the blocked field goal, because blocks are rare and scoring on a missed field goal is rarer still. They get no credit for the punt block, because our punt return ratings for the receiving team only judge punt returns. The Dolphins do get penalized for both events, although the penalty for a blocked field goal is no different from the penalty for any other missed field goal.”

Using their metrics, the Patriots have the top offense in the league, but their defense ranks 23. The difference for them has been special teams, where they rank fourth.

http://blog.masslive.com/patriots/20...ys_that_p.html


The "#1 overall team in the NFL" with the "#1 offense in the NFL" will be VERY lucky if they're able to make the playoffs. And I say that knowing full well....

* That they're 3-1

* That they have road games against the hapless Lions, Browns, and Bills yet to come

* That they haven't lost a regular season home game with Brady at QB since 2006. The freaking week Bernardini was a beaten favorite in the BC Classic - and Moss was in Oakland. Now, one of Bernardini's offspring will run in the BC Juvie.

The Pats are no longer a 12-4 or 11-5 team. They no longer have unquestionably the best offense in the NFL. A veritable juggernaught of an offense with young guys left wide open in space underneath every time you pause a play.

This is an 8-8 football team at the end of this year. And if the defense doesn't improve markedly - a 6-10 team next year.

[randallscott35]

There is nothing like low balling expectations in order to talk about how amazing a season it will be later on.

-true handicapping

[ateamstupid]

FO is notorious for overrating teams early in the year that they predicted to be good in the preseason. This is because their final DAVE rating is their DVOA mixed with preseason projections. As the season wears on, DAVE is weighted less and raw DVOA takes on more importance. If they're still #1 in Week 12, then I'll take notice.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I thought I'd enjoy what was my final day as a Pats fan with this stellar post.

.

Why aren't you a Pats fan any longer? I don't get it. Who are you a fan of now?

[slotdirt]

Unrelated, but am I reading that correctly that the FO metrics rank the Lions as having the toughest schedule in the league? That seems fair.

[dagolfer33]

Also unrelated, as I sat Monday night and witnessed my fantasy opponent make up a 45 point defecit to kick my ass this week, on the sole strength of the Pats record-setting defensive display, I harkened back to that one fine Sunday I started David Patten as my flex player.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

Why aren't you a Pats fan any longer? I don't get it. Who are you a fan of now?

Take a wild guess. He was never really a Pats fan.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Take a wild guess. He was never really a Pats fan.

The Raider fan years must have been rough. I'm looking forward to the page sized diagrams showing what a great life Harvin has now that Moss is on the field...with arrows and proof of quadruple coverage on Moss.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

The Raider fan years must have been rough. I'm looking forward to the page sized diagrams showing what a great life Harvin has now that Moss is on the field...with arrows and proof of quadruple coverage on Moss.

All kidding aside, that Viking team should be pretty lethal on offense. You certainly aren't going to be too brazen of cheating the safeties up against AP. Shiancoe I guesss will have to be the possession guy. When Rice comes back, this team will be ridiculous.

[slotdirt]

Having watched the Vikings for their first three games, the thought occurs to me that there is no panacea for an offense that has been that awful so far this season. Well, unless Old Man Favre somehow finds his 1996 arm again. Hard to throw deep balls to Moss when you have a quarterback who can't throw the deep ball anymore.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

All kidding aside, that Viking team should be pretty lethal on offense. You certainly aren't going to be too brazen of cheating the safeties up against AP. Shiancoe I guesss will have to be the possession guy. When Rice comes back, this team will be ridiculous.

OF course they'll be better with Moss. I'm stupid for the most part (as you are well aware!) , but not that stupid!! Moss is a great player, but I'm pretty sure he's not God as at least one poster seems to be convinced!

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Having watched the Vikings for their first three games, the thought occurs to me that there is no panacea for an offense that has been that awful so far this season. Well, unless Old Man Favre somehow finds his 1996 arm again. Hard to throw deep balls to Moss when you have a quarterback who can't throw the deep ball anymore.

He can't?

There has to be a guy getting open deep to throw the deep ball. Harvin can't run a route and berrian is done.

He threw the deep ball fine last year and its hard to believe that his arm suddenly eroded in the offseason.

A guy like Moss does change an offense especially one starved for even a decent threat out wide. You put him and later Rice into the offense and you don't think that will make a huge difference?

[slotdirt]

He threw about three balls in the Dolphins game that were about 10 yards short of what he used to complete with ease 8-10 years ago. I have no idea whether the Rice/Moss returns will turn the Vikings offense into a juggernaut, but I do know that the o-line has been pretty mediocre and Favre is going to take a lot of hits this year regardless. I don't think bringing Moss on board is going to help those problems.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

He threw about three balls in the Dolphins game that were about 10 yards short of what he used to complete with ease 8-10 years ago. I have no idea whether the Rice/Moss returns will turn the Vikings offense into a juggernaut, but I do know that the o-line has been pretty mediocre and Favre is going to take a lot of hits this year regardless. I don't think bringing Moss on board is going to help those problems.

You guys may very well be right. The schedule is brutal and I don't think Moss has ever played in a west coast offense so there has to be a learning curve with the terminology and the routes.

Athletically, though, they may have enough to overcome the transition issues. If they do, this offense could be something special. I do agree on further thought that it may be a big "if" and I certainly won't use this Jets game as any kind of barometer.

[slotdirt]

I think Favre is going to get hit on Monday. A lot.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I think Favre is going to get hit on Monday. A lot.

God I can't wait.

[slotdirt]

If the Lions can give him as much trouble as they did (two picks, another two Favre-esque turnovers negated by debatable penalties), then the Jets are going to eat his lucnh.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

If the Lions can give him as much trouble as they did (two picks, another two Favre-esque turnovers negated by debatable penalties), then the Jets are going to eat his lucnh.

The lions are looking more and more impressive every week. That is definitely a team on the rise.

I would put a bet down that they make the playoffs next year on their current path.

[slotdirt]

As a 30 year plus Lions fan, I wouldn't bet a penny on anything regarding the Lions save that I'm pretty sure they won't break the current Pirates record of most losing seasons in a row by a major sports franchise.