Who was closer to the Triple Crown...Smarty or Alex?

RollerDoc · #1 10-15-2006, 11:53 AM

I'm guessing some here will think this is a ridiculous question.

In 2004, Smarty Jones won the Derby, Preakness, and then lost by one length to Birdstone, falling just short of winning the elusive Triple Crown.

In 2005, Afleet Alex lost The Kentucky Derby by 1 1/2 lengths, and then won the Preakness and Belmont easily.

I realize I am being a Monday Morning quarterback, but in those two scenarios, which horse was closest to winning the Triple Crown?

On one hand Smarty led until the very end of the Belmont. Could his jockey have done something to run a better race or was that truly an effort of everything Smarty had to give.

On the other hand, did Jeremy Rose run the best race he could of with Alex in the Derby? Of course Jeremy Rose redeemed himself in the Preakness for matching AA's superb athleticism when they clipped heels with Scrappy T.

So again, my question is Who was closer to winning the Triple Crown or which horse could have won the Triple Crown?

pmayjr · #2 10-15-2006, 12:00 PM

Yeah man I'm warning you. Some posters on this site will slay you for posting about hypotheticals. I posted before that even if nothing woulda happened to Barbaro in the Preakness, I think Bernardini would have beaten him that day. I got destroyed for making a comment on something that never happened. So be prepared for the same...

With that being said- Probably Afleet Alex. Because the Derby was a freak race with a freak pace scenario. Plus Rose was weaving Alex through the lane which prolly took extra out of him. But otherwise, AA didn't have any "true" foes. He wrecked everyone else in the 3 year old division.

On the Flip side, eventhough Smarty won the first 2 legs fairly convincingly- but Birdstone turned out to be the real deal. The pace was forced on Smarty, and he finally ran out of gas. But Birdstone was validated by the Travers win (whether you wanna say he beat a weak group or not, I don't care, he won it). So Afleet Alex was closer in my eyes.

kentuckyrosesinmay · #3 10-15-2006, 12:01 PM

Definitely Afleet Alex. Definitely. He should have won the Derby, but luck was not with him.

SniperSB23 · #4 10-15-2006, 12:07 PM

Alex, still not sure why he didn't fire in the stretch there when it was there for the taking. Smarty would have had a tough time beating Birdstone on that day at 12 furlongs even if he'd been able to run more reasonable fractions.

1st_Saturday_in_May · #5 10-15-2006, 12:09 PM

Smarty! Come on, if Bailey AND Solis dont ride out of their way in the Belmont to screw him over, he wins the Triple Crown.

RollerDoc · #6 10-15-2006, 12:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1st_Saturday_in_May

Smarty! Come on, if Bailey AND Solis dont ride out of their way in the Belmont to screw him over, he wins the Triple Crown.

Hey Reppin.......my dad played basketball for Duquesne. By the way, how did Smarty get screwed over?

blackthroatedwind · #7 10-15-2006, 12:12 PM

Real Quiet.

Wouldn't a better question be who was closer to the Triple Crown between Going Wild and Cupecoy's Joy?

pmayjr · #8 10-15-2006, 12:16 PM

I do agree with the point about Bailey riding his horse into the ground in the Belmont to ruin Smarty's chances... we're justt all conspircay theorists here aren't we? But then again... is it really much different than what Spanish Chestnut did to all the pace setters (including Bellamy Road) in the Giacomo/AA Debry? Or what Shake the Bank does for Better talk Now?

1st_Saturday_in_May · #9 10-15-2006, 12:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RollerDoc

Hey Reppin.......my dad played basketball for Duquesne. By the way, how did Smarty get screwed over?

Watch the way that Bailey rides Eddington and Solis rides RH10. Neither seemed to be trying to win the race for themselves. Their sole purpose in there was to gun at SJ early and it didnt matter if they wore out their own horses - which they did - just so long as he didnt win. Also, how coincidental is it that neither rode their respective mounts again?

RollerDoc · #10 10-15-2006, 12:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1st_Saturday_in_May

Watch the way that Bailey rides Eddington and Solis rides RH10. Neither seemed to be trying to win the race for themselves. Their sole purpose in there was to gun at SJ early and it didnt matter if they wore out their own horses - which they did - just so long as he didnt win. Also, how coincidental is it that neither rode their respective mounts again?

Isn't that part of sports though:
In the NBA, they purposely foul Shaq.
In MLB, they throw at the batter or intentionally walk.
In the NHL, a team assigns a goon to shadow a high scoring superstar.

By the way....Go Steelers!

stevepopyak · #11 10-15-2006, 12:25 PM

Yeah, I have to go with Smarty on this one too.

pmayjr · #12 10-15-2006, 12:26 PM

Agreed...
Ta;lent level aside they were pretty much used for the same purpose though. But I agree... I guess "techincally" the didn't do anything illegal. It just sucks that they prolly didn't let their owners in on it lol.

stevepopyak · #13 10-15-2006, 12:36 PM

I could be wrong but in 2004 Bailey lost his Derby mount when Wimbledon was scratched .... weren't there some last minute rumblings before the Derby about Bailey riding Smarty for the Triple Crown?

#14 10-15-2006, 12:39 PM

A horse has to win the KY. Derby first to have a chance to win the TC.....

Cajungator26 · #15 10-15-2006, 12:48 PM

Although I wasn't a Smarty fan, Smarty hands down...

What a game animal he was...

#16 10-15-2006, 12:54 PM

ALYDAR

I think he was far superior to the two good horses you named.

Suffolk Shippers · #17 10-15-2006, 02:47 PM

Alot of factors played into each of them losing, so not sure if you can gain a measure of who was closer, but I will try...

In the Belmont, Stewart Elliot either didnt try to settle Smarty Jones down or just couldnt and Jerry Bailey and Alex Solis made runs at Smarty to push the pace at around the 1/2 or 3/4 mile marker. Don't know about Solis, but Bailey pretty much said he would do that, one of the old addages being they dont want to see a Triple Crown won if they arent on the horses back. Never understood that. I mean obviously you want to win with your horse and you need to put the effort out there, but that was no way Bailey's best way to win the race, so we can pretty much say he sabotaged it to an extent. That being said, Elliot had Smarty pushing the pace way too early and should have ridden Smarty Jones like Jeremy Rose rode Afleet Alex in the Belmont the next year.

Afleet Alex had one major thing working against him that he had no control over and another that could have been controlled. The inclusion of Spanish Chestnut in the race set a blistering pace that cooked the entire field. Spanish Chestnut is one step above a quarter horse in my book. All to get Bandini home, right? What did Bandini finish 19th? What a travesty. Rose was artfully darting through traffic and may have won had he not dove to the rail, which was dead all day.

Really tough to seperate the two. I think Afleet Alex was closer and the better of the two horses. Both great horses with great stories. It is a shame neither of them could do it, and that injuries finished them both off early.

pmayjr · #18 10-15-2006, 03:46 PM

Stevepopyak,
That's exactly right. Wimbledon was scratched, and Bailey approached John Servis. Trying to persuade him to let him ride Smarty in the Derby. Servis stayed with Stew Elliot, and I think Bailey really hated that. I think he resented not having a Derby mount. So he tried to bury the horse and the connections that could've helped him...

Suffolk,
The point you made about Bailey's thought process. I mean the "if I ain't riding him" I don't want him to win attitude- I could see him saying that. In his book, he repeatedly mentions about with the quick reirements of horses these days, the mmarketing and stardom should be put more on the jocks than on the horses. I agree with him to an extent, but the Smarty Belmont was not the way to emphasize your point lol. I do remember after Prado won on Birdstone that day, he was so apologetic in the interview after winning. So i don't think Prado shared Bailey's view...

kentuckyrosesinmay · #19 10-15-2006, 03:59 PM

I thought that Prado really handled that win well, as did Zito. I remember one or the other saying something to the extent that the worst thing would have been for no one to show up against Smarty.

Downthestretch55 · #20 10-15-2006, 04:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

I thought that Prado really handled that win well, as did Zito. I remember one or the other saying something to the extent that the worst thing would have been for no one to show up against Smarty.

KRose,
Just my opinion...but the "class act" that day was Birdstone's owner, Mary Lou Whitney. She said soothing words to all those that had wished so much for Smarty. She's a total class act.
Then when her horse won the Travers, it just seemed like good karma she deserved came right back on her.

as far as the topic, both were really nice horses. I loved AA for what his connections did for neuroblastoma ( cause it kills far too many kids, my nephew included)...the leomonade stands were awe inspiring.
But my heart belongs to Smarty. He almost gave us what we've hoped for.
Very game...and fought to his last heart beat.