"In The Spotlight" with Dr. SwineSmeller

[Dr.SwineSmeller]

8/8/08 In The Spotlight with Dr. SwineSmeller
Woodbine Race 8, 4:36 pm Eastern time.
Del Mar Races 1 and 2. Post 1:00 pm Pacific Time

The featured 8th at Woodbine is for three year olds and up and will go for 1 1/4 grueling miles on the turf for a purse of $50,500. Skip Code is the 4 year old gorgeous grey son of record setting Skip Away, winner of 9.6 million in his career. In 10 lifetime starts, Skip Code has a modest 2-0-1 record, but he has collected a cool $183,000, putting him at the top of this fields class. Jockey P Husbands sits second in the rider ranks at Woodbine and trainer Mark Casse stands on top of the trainer standings, and one has to think they smell blood in this spot.

Skip Code is the third morning line choice at 6/1. Favoured at 5/2 is the 8 year old Colorful Judgement, and though he has collected $708,000 in lifetime earnings, he has only won 6 of 45 starts. Andalusian is the second pick at 4/1, but once again, he has only had his picture taken in the winner's circle twice in 24 starts.

If I had an extra $40,000 in my pocket, I'd claim Skip Code to put in my pasture just so I could look at him every day. He is one handsome lad! Picture here> http://www.pedigreequery.com/skip+code

I'll play the primed young Skip Code for $30 to WIN. Go Baby Go!!
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Meanwhile, way back out in the wild wild west, the shootout at the Del Mar corral continues. The first race is for $25,000 claimers, and an unknown young gun soars into town to stake his claim. Born With Eagles is an undefeated Washington bred at 3 for 3 that is garnering little respect. He is listed as the longest shot in the morning line at 12/1 in this short field of six horses, but a closer look says the others will have to shoot this young gun down if they want their mug shot taken at the finish line, especially in this a 5 1/2 furlong all out dash to the wire.

At first glance, a pedigree check on Born With Eagles appears average, but a deeper dig shows Born With Eagles' paternal grandpa is top gun Skywalker, winner of the 1985 Santa Anita Derby, and the 1986 Breeders' Cup Classic champion. Skywalker robbed the banks for a heavy loot bag of 2.2 million in his racing career, and that was 22 years ago. Veteran jock Jon Court will mount up for trainer Molly Pierson. Born with Eagles will fire his guns from the #5 gate, which should leave him fairly clear of early trouble.

Born With Eagles is an awesome name for a thoroughbred. After today, many more may recognize it than before. I'll play the new kid in town, Born With Eagles, for $30 WIN. Go Baby Go!!
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In the second race at Del Mar, USA top cowboy Garrett Gomez will lead a one mile calvary charge for the winner's share of $75,000, up on 2/1 sunrise favourite,Dilemma. There is not much wonder as to why Dilemma is favoured early on here. He was purchased for a lofty $650,000 as a yearling at the Keenland November sale. That's an automatic class edge, big time. His dad, Grand Slam, was a 1996 $300,000 Keenland purchase. Like father like son. A deeper pedigree study leaves no wonder as to why Dilemma is high dollar thoroughbred racing stock. He sports a 3x4 Mr. Prospector, 4x5 Secretariat, 4x5 Key To The Mint, 5x5 Bold Ruler, and 4x5x5 Northern Dancer influence. Genealogy just don't get much better that that.

Bred in Kentucky, Dilemma has made 10 lifetime starts, finishing off the tote only once, going 3-3-3 for $176,000. Dilemma was a stakes winner at two years old, and a look at his picture shows a big strong all grown up totally awesome looking boy. This exceptional high bred racer is worth a look! Dilemma has staunch determination written all over his face, literally. The following link offers one of the most dynamic pics of a racer's face in action that I've ever seen, with nostrils flaring and ears laid back like a mad cat. See for yourself> http://www.pedigreequery.com/dilemma3

I'll play the superbred muscle bound Dilemma for $30 to WIN. Go Baby Go!!

Dr. SwineSmeller

[zippyneedsawin]

Thank you, Dr. PigSniffer.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Something about the good Doc reeks of Bellbendsboy....but appreciate the effort nonetheless....Go Baby Go!!

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Something about the good Doc reeks of Bellbendsboy....but appreciate the effort nonetheless....Go Baby Go!!

It's BBB redux. Too many spelling errors to be him...


FYI PigGuy- first post at Del Mar today is 4:00PT.

All of that long-winded tripe for $30 win bets. Sometimes it's better to just post your god damn bet and stfu.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Woodine 8th (4:36)

1 1/4 Miles (Turf) | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Claiming ($40,000 - $37,500) | Purse: $50,500

Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Andalusian McAleney J S Attard Sid C 120 $37,500 L 4-1
2 2 Angel of the House Montpellier C Cotey David 120 $37,500 L 8-1
3 3 Benz Boy Moore M Gilyana Robert 1175 $40,000 L 8-1
4 4 Colorful Judgement Ramsammy E Fehr Alec 120 $37,500 L 5-2
5 5 Gold Cachet Stephen A Katryan Abraham R 120 $37,500 L 10-1
6 6 Cry Havoc Ramirez M R Robillard Julie 120 $37,500 L 12-1
7 7 Hedge On Gold Pizarro T Ross John A 120 $37,500 L 12-1
8 8 His Smoothness Sutherland C Day James E 122 $40,000 L 12-1
9 9 Skip Code Husbands P Casse Mark 124 $40,000 L 6-1
10 10 Silver Strip Stein J Ross Brian 120 $37,500 L 15-1
11 AE Forty Creek Moore M Magnusson Glenn 1175 $40,000 L 15-1


lol

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

All of that long-winded tripe for $30 win bets. Sometimes it's better to just post your god damn bet and stfu.

Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB

[reese]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

All of that long-winded tripe for $30 win bets. Sometimes it's better to just post your god damn bet and stfu.

Ditto.

Makes me

[Dr.SwineSmeller]

No Comment.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by Dr.SwineSmeller

Truthfully you guys, My name is Michael Love. (No relation to BBB). I'm a Registered Nurse from Hot Springs, Arkansas, home of Oaklawn Park, and I simply like to write. I'll keep all my daily picks in this one long running thread, so to prevent board clutter. And I indeed post on five other racing boards including ESPN and I show a profit on all of them. My longest running thread is at FlatStats.UK.com. It may take a few days to roll a profit out here too, but I hope to do just that.

Best of luck at the windows to all!!

Dr. SwineSmeller

weird.

my name is brian wilson.

[Dr.SwineSmeller]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

weird.

my name is brian wilson.

Even weirder, I play poker on occasion in Tunica, Mississippi with the Beach Boy's agent, Sandy, who lives in Memphis, Tennessee.

[Dr.SwineSmeller]

8/11/08 Coast to Coast with Dr. SwineSmeller
Del Mar Race's 2 and 3, post 2:32 Pacific time.

Should Chocolate Lava fail to set the grass afire at Del Mar today, I'm buying a two dollar ticket on a Pacific freighter bound for Mauna Loa, Hawaii. Once there, I'm going to hike my happy @** up Mt. Kilauea and experiment with bungy jumping into Kilauea's active volcanic crater using kite string for a bungy cord. That is if I don't have to just swim out and feed myself to the California coastal great white sharks because I didn't have a lousy two dollars left in my pocket for a cheap freighter ticket. I think I can get the kite string donated. I can probably get the two dollars and the kite string donated.

Four year old filly Chocolate Lava is listed as the 3/1 second choice in this short field of five going one mile for the top Del Mar kitty of the day at $75,000. She was entered on July 28th at Del Mar, but subsequently scratched that day. Top 3 Del Mar jockey, J Rosario, is the lone ranger carrying the 124 pound top weight. Rosario will navigate the magma flow for top Del Mar trainer John Sadler. Early 8/5 favourite, Irish Bred European grass specialist Bahama Mama, may indeed be deserving of her early line, but in her first out on American soil she was disqualified, as going backwards evidently caused her to experience an acute episode of dyslexia. I'm hoping that Bahama Mama's acute dsylexic condition can be upgraded to chronic dyslexia today after she takes another right in the first turn, I hope.

Chocolate Lava is another high dollar girl, puchased at the March 06 Ocala Breeders' Sale for a hefty $400,000 by owner Mona Talla. I can't say that I'm the least bit familiar with Mona, but a blind assessment says Mona has plenty of someone's money to spend. Some well known fast racers show up in Chocolate Lava's three deep pedigree check. Her four great grandpa's include French turf champion Blushing Groom, Coxs Ridge, Deputy Minister, and Risen Star. Her sire, Orientate, won 10 of 19 lifetime starts for 1.7 million. In 14 lifetime starts, Chocolate Lava has posted a 3-2-3 mark, banking $128,000. This hot to trot babe should make a strong run for the wire today, as she appears to be sound and in a spot that suits her well.

As the gates erupt open today at Del Mar, I'll play Chocolate Lava for $50 WIN.
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Race 3 looks to be a wide open event for a $25,000 maiden claiming tag. Obscure owner/trainer John Glenny entered two, scratching the 1st half in preference of the 1A half of the entry, In The Poconos. Obviously Glenny goes with the filly he thinks is best prepared here. M A Pedroza takes the reins and will break out from the 3 hole in a race where all the serious competition starts from the outside in this a field of 8. At 10/1 on the morning line, if In The Poconos can grab a ground saving trip on the rail in this two turn event, she may indeed find herself in serious contention when the field straightens for the stretch. She looks as good as any and potentially better than most on paper here, and her pedigree ranks tops along with the 5/2 favoured Shade of Moonlight.

Shade of Moonlight will a tote top weight of 124, and at four years old, she just now begins racing, putting a soundness question mark into her chart. At three years old, In The Poconos gets a 4 pound weight allowance, which can only be of aid when going a distance.

I'll play In The Poconos for $20 WIN. I'll also play a $5 exacta box coupling #1A In The Poconos with #7 Shade of Moonlight.

Dr. SwineSmeller

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Dr.SwineSmeller

Chocolate Lava is another high dollar girl, puchased at the March 06 Ocala Breeders' Sale for a hefty $400,000 by owner Mona Talla.

Chocalate Lava is a 4 year old who has raced 14 times. How does her sales price from over two years ago enter in to the equation for her chances today.

[Dr.SwineSmeller]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Chocalate Lava is a 4 year old who has raced 14 times. How does her sales price from over two years ago enter in to the equation for her chances today.

[Dilemma wins, 8/8/08 In The Spotlight][quote]>.... Dilemma..... not much wonder as to why Dilemma is favoured early on here...... purchased for a lofty $650,000 as a yearling That's an automatic class edge.....genealogy.....at four years old has made 10 lifetime starts, ....

with nostrils flaring and ears laid back like a mad cat...... http://www.pedigreequery.com/dilemma3

>>If one guy has ten $50,000 Keenland Sale horses and another guy has ten $400,000 Keenland Sale horses, and they match race all ten, I know which ten I'm betting.

Dr. SwineSmeller

[otisotisotis]

you must be the Green Monkey's #1 fan.....

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Dr.SwineSmeller

Dilemma wins, 8/8/08 In The Spotlight]>.... Dilemma..... not much wonder as to why Dilemma is favoured early on here...... purchased for a lofty $650,000 as a yearling That's an automatic class edge.....genealogy.....at four years old has made 10 lifetime starts, ....

with nostrils flaring and ears laid back like a mad cat...... http://www.pedigreequery.com/dilemma3

>>If one guy has ten $50,000 Keenland Sale horses and another guy has ten $400,000 Keenland Sale horses, and they match race all ten, I know which ten I'm betting.

Dr. SwineSmeller

on your ridiculous hypothetical match-up, with no other information upon which to base my wager I'd go with the $40,000 horses because as a group they will most likely have a better ROI than the other group because of people like yourself who will overbet horses based on things like breeding, sales price, and connections. you must have flushed a ton on The Green Monkey.

I'll try again, what correlation is there between Chocolate Lava's '06 sales price and her chances of winning today? why was it something you felt helped to make the case for her today?

[Dr.SwineSmeller]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

on your ridiculous hypothetical match-up, with no other information upon which to base my wager I'd go with the $40,000 horses because as a group they will most likely have a better ROI than the other group because of people like yourself who will overbet horses based on things like breeding, sales price, and connections. you must have flushed a ton on The Green Monkey.

I'll try again, what correlation is there between Chocolate Lava's '06 sales price and her chances of winning today? why was it something you felt helped to make the case for her today?

Howdy Arlington Jim. To answer directly...Yes, I do think it has something to do with this race in particular. Given the sub-stakes level of the race, a $75,000 AOC event, which is a nice purse nonetheless, a $400,000 baby that appears sound looms large at this class level in my eyes. Chocolate Lava may not win, of course. Bahama Mama was a $175,000 purchase in Europe and looks better on paper than Chocolate Lava, and may indeed take the wire here. But I see Lava indeed as legitimate high bred game here.
Many years ago as I preached away from the Daily Racing Form concerning past performances, a very old fellow said to me in earnest, "Son, paper doesn't race, it just offers you the lowest possible price on the board". The more I thought about his euphemistic statement, the more I realized he was right.

PS> Call me superstitious, but I never have and never will bet a horse named Monkey anything.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Chocalate Lava is a 4 year old who has raced 14 times. How does her sales price from over two years ago enter in to the equation for her chances today.

Jim, Everyone was overpaying for Orientate's back then...Now his offspring barely bring his advertised stud fee. Most of them are gone from the track by 4 as I'm sure you know they're not the soundest lot in the bunch....

A 4yo Orientate with just 14 career starts??!! Red Flag City...It is just refreshing to meet one of the guys who is fueling the pools for us

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Jim, Everyone was overpaying for Orientate's back then...Now his offspring barely bring his advertised stud fee. Most of them are gone from the track by 4 as I'm sure you know they're not the soundest lot in the bunch....

A 4yo Orientate with just 14 career starts??!! Red Flag City...It is just refreshing to meet one of the guys who is fueling the pools for us

and i guess by this reasoning Chocolate Lava would also outclass Zenyatta because she sold for $400K while Zenyatta was a discount $50K horse.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

and i guess by this reasoning Chocolate Lava would also outclass Zenyatta because she sold for $400K while Zenyatta was a discount $50K horse.

Exactly...Never realized how easy this game was to figure out...