6/9 (BEL): 150th Belmont Stakes Day

[taxicab]

Originally Posted by freddymo

This doesn't end well for you

Care to elaborate Freddy ?

[moses]

Originally Posted by taxicab

I don't know how it's going to play out Saturday,but most of the Cali runners certainly belong.
The money's good,the talent is there...….and come on Rollo,you just can't leave them sitting in the barn.
And don't forget,California horses have been shipping East and crushing for quite a few years...…...why shouldn't the owners take a shot ?

Dark Vader: Big improve in last,horse he beat just won the Snow Chief on Saturday...…..had a sneaky uncomfortable trip @ Sunland.
The Easy Goer field is light...……really light.

Moonshine Memories: Double Grade 1 winner,stuck in the quicksand in her BC race.
She needed her last,one turn suits her.
Spectator: Grade 2 winner/Grade 1 placed...…...the horse she just ran into in the SA Oaks is a stone cold runner.

Stormy Liberal: Last years Breeders Cup Turf Sprint winner...…...just ran second in the toughest turf sprint in the world.
He's the horse to beat,why wouldn't he be here ?

Beautiful Shot: Just ran second,beaten 3/4's of a length to the morning line favorite(Brisnet ?)……….his sprints are all solid.
Barn is outstanding on the ship with price horses.

Ransom The Moon: Gr.1 winner(beating last years BC Sprint Champ) + Gr.2 also...……..was a router in Canada(broke his maiden going 9 furlongs on the grass).
Bolt d'Oro: Dual Gr.1 winner,loaded with talent...….only bad race was the Derby over a surface he didn't handle.
A one turn mile is right in his wheelhouse.

Fashion Business/Multiplier: I don't like So Cal grass routers heading East,I'll give you this one.

The Easy Goer looks like a nice spot for High North. Though I’m willing to throw the Pat Day Mile out for Mask since it was a sloppy track. Not sure I quite understand the 3-1 morning line for Rugbyman but I’m ok if people put money on him. I don’t think he’ll win.

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by moses

The Easy Goer looks like a nice spot for High North. Though I’m willing to throw the Pat Day Mile out for Mask since it was a sloppy track. Not sure I quite understand the 3-1 morning line for Rugbyman but I’m ok if people put money on him. I don’t think he’ll win.

Agree that Mask did not like the mud. I was looking for 5-1 not 5-2 though.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by moses

The Easy Goer looks like a nice spot for High North. Though I’m willing to throw the Pat Day Mile out for Mask since it was a sloppy track. Not sure I quite understand the 3-1 morning line for Rugbyman but I’m ok if people put money on him. I don’t think he’ll win.

Did you see Rugymans maiden win? What is there to not understand?

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by taxicab

I don't know how it's going to play out Saturday,but most of the Cali runners certainly belong.

Yeah, the ones trained by Bob Baffert. Judging by the morning line, most of the others should have stayed home.

The money's good,the talent is there...….and come on Rollo,you just can't leave them sitting in the barn.

That's the sad part because that's exactly what they will be doing in the next two weeks when Santa Anita tries to card several stakes that would have featured this very same horses.

And don't forget,California horses have been shipping East and crushing for quite a few years...…...why shouldn't the owners take a shot ?

Well Eurton, D'Amato, and Callaghan have not been crushing back East, that's for sure.

Dark Vader: Big improve in last,horse he beat just won the Snow Chief on Saturday...…..had a sneaky uncomfortable trip @ Sunland.
The Easy Goer field is light...……really light.

Not light enough. Dark Vader is co-5th choice on the ML. He'd be even higher if the connections of Just Whistle opted for the this race instead of an allowance races later on the card.

Dark Vader "improved" because he dropped in class. He went from running over his head in graded stakes company to running in a first condition allowance where he belonged after taking 5 shots to break his maiden.

Take The One O One--who is the reason that Andy Beyer opted to lower the hefty Beyer earned by Bolt D'Oro in last year's Frontrunner--did win his last start, but it was on turf against his fellow Cal-breds.

Dark Vader should have waited for the Affirmed back home.

Moonshine Memories: Double Grade 1 winner,stuck in the quicksand in her BC race.
She needed her last,one turn suits her.

Small, weak fields suit her. She showed absolutely no progression from 2 to 3 in her comeback. Certainly not enough to warrant entry into one of the toughest 3yo filly stakes to date. Santa Anita will be running the Summertime Oaks in less than 2 weeks over the same track and distance she won one of her Grade 1s last year.

Spectator: Grade 2 winner/Grade 1 placed...…...the horse she just ran into in the SA Oaks is a stone cold runner.

The stone cold runner (Midnight Bisou) got pummeled by the morning line favorite for the Acorn. Spectator was obliterated by Moonshine Memories last year and thus is in an even more tenuous position among the the top 3yo fillies than that rival. The Summertime Oaks would have made much more sense for her as well.

I guess we can watch them battle it out down the stretch (probably for 5th about 10 lengths behind the top finishers) so that we have a better gauge of which one will win the listed Torrey Pines at Del Mar.

Stormy Liberal: Last years Breeders Cup Turf Sprint winner...…...just ran second in the toughest turf sprint in the world.
He's the horse to beat,why wouldn't he be here ?

Stormy Liberal certainly has the credentials to be here. The problem is that he's been all over the world and back since the Breeder's Cup. Miller campaigned him hard last year, too (sans the international forays), and had to give him 5 months off after getting blitzed in this same race.

Beautiful Shot: Just ran second,beaten 3/4's of a length to the morning line favorite(Brisnet ?)……….his sprints are all solid.
Barn is outstanding on the ship with price horses.

Whatever magic was performed by the barn with its other horses didn't rub off on this one at either Aqueduct or Oaklawn. I guess there's not much else to shoot for back home, although I hear the Affirmed is coming up awful light if they want to give him one more try around two turns. Might put him in the frame for the Los Alamitos Derby, too.

Ransom The Moon: Gr.1 winner(beating last years BC Sprint Champ) + Gr.2 also...……..was a router in Canada(broke his maiden going 9 furlongs on the grass).

A router in Canada? Yeah, he broke his maiden going 9 furlongs on the turf in something like his 7th career start. He then spent the following year toiling in conditioned allowance races before being reformed as a sprinter to great success in 2017. Why disrupt a good thing? Something tells me they are taking a flyer on the Met Mile's dubious reputation as a "stallion making" race.

Too bad, because the horse made much more sense in the True North the day before...or even the upcoming San Carlos at Santa Anita where he's done some of his best running.

By the way, I think NYRA might have to rethink carding the True North and the Bed O'Roses the same weekend as the Met Mile and the Ogden Phipps, as the cross-entries and flip-flops are wreaking a bit of havoc. It's a little bit like the situation produced by having a BC Sprint, a BC Dirt Mile, and a BC Classic all on the same weekend.

Bolt d'Oro: Dual Gr.1 winner,loaded with talent...….only bad race was the Derby over a surface he didn't handle.
A one turn mile is right in his wheelhouse.

Any horse that can hit the 1/2 in :45 and change is handling the surface fine. The problem was Espinoza took the colt out of his comfort zone and ruined him for the last part of the race. Now you have to have faith that the colt doesn't have any residual affects from that horrendous effort. It also doesn't instill confidence that the colt first was going to be rested for another herculean task in the Pacific Classic, then was rerouted to Woody Stephens, then on the fence for the Preakness, and now has settled on the Met Mile. Personally, I think the Woody Stephens would have been the better spot to get back in form, but it's kind of a motley crew for the Met with more to gain from a good effort.

Fashion Business/Multiplier: I don't like So Cal grass routers heading East,I'll give you this one.

I just hope they'll still be able to fill a conditioned allowance race on the turf at Santa Anita in the next few weeks despite the absence of these two.

[taxicab]

@ Rollo:
Really ?
All of those horses you don't like on Saturday should of stayed home ?
Because of the morning line ?
That's right...….a horse lined over 5-1 has never,ever won any race in history.
And why run at Belmont when you could run at Santa Anita ?
Really ?

So remind me...….how have Calif. horses done on the Eastern ship the last 5 years or so ?

Dark Vader: Yeah...…..I'm sure Peter Eurton is shaking in his boots at that sterling 0 for 8 record in graded stakes company the rest of the Easy Goer field can boast of(and yes,I'm aware the EG isn't a graded stake...….just pointing out there are no world beaters in the race).
Moonshine Memories: Coolmore must be devastated that their 650k Malibu Moon filly was 2 for 3 in Grade 1's last year...…...and went off favored in the BC Juvy Filly...…….yeah,she's a real slug alright.
And do you really think they care if they won a 75k prep off of a 6 month layoff ?
Perhaps they had the Grade 1 Acorn in mind ?
And remind me...……..how many bad races has Spectator run ?
Yeah.....I think Peter Miller knows a little bit more about how his Breeders Cup winner is doing than you do.
BTW......400k turf sprints don't come around every day.
And remind me...….how's Peter Miller done shipping his top sprinters back East recently ?
Beautiful Shot...….Like I said,Beautiful Shot just ran 2nd beaten 3/4's in the Gr. 3 Laz Barrera to Saturdays morning line favorite...…….at the Woody Stephens 7 furlong distance...…..so 3/4's of a length to the race chalk means the horse has no chance ?
I think the barns success with Texas Red shows it knows where to run its stock at a number...…..and Exaggerator on the East Coast ship speaks well of the barns ability to travel.
Ransom The Moon ran 7 times in Canada,his shortest race was 1 1/16...….I didn't say he was sprinting in Canada.
Sired by Malibu Moon out of a Red Ransom mare,a one turn mile should be in his realm...…..trainer D'Amato seems to think so.
The Bolt...….Runner up in the 2yo Eclipse voting last year,why not run him in the Met with a weight break.
He's the 4-1 second choice on the line...….and you think the Woody Stephens is where he belongs ?
I'll tell ya Rollo.....every single horse you don't like can get beaten Saturday.....I understand that.
But they have all earned their right to be there.
Good luck wagering Saturday Rollo,hope you knock em dead.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

I understand the appeal of huge weekend cards replete with graded stakes worth millions of dollars and copious TV and social media coverage for trainers on the desiccated West coast--especially among those "up and coming" sorts who have it in their heads that there's a spot for them among the training "elite" nationwide--but for Pete's sake, have any of them heard the phrase "shooting for the moon with a bottle rocket"?

Every now and again you hear people out west talk about an "East coast" bias with respect to Eclipse awards and discussions of all-time greats, but after looking at the Saturday overnight I can only conclude one of two things:

(1) they inadvertently help support that perceived bias by sending no-hopers to slaughter or...

(2) these West coast trainers think little of the equine talent back east

Why else...

...is Dark Vader, a colt that barely broke his maiden at Los Al and then got pummeled at Sunland Park, in the Easy Goer when his stronger stablemate, Core Beliefs, fresh from a solid runner-up effort at this very track in the Peter Pan, is sitting it out?

...is Moonshine Memories, the humiliated favorite in last year's BC Juvenile Fillies, fresh of a thorough drilling from Baffert benchwarmer Emboldened in a comeback sprint, in the Acorn against the top 3yo fillies around?

...is Spectator, pummeled by the aforementioned Moonshine Memories at 2 and pummeled by the noticeably absent Midnight Bisou who in turn failed to make a dent in her own foray out east, in the Acorn against the top 3yo fillies around?

...is Stormy Liberal, back on a plane for the Jaipur despite racing in Dubai in late March and sporting a history of thorough dustings in both his shipping ventures last year including this very race?

...is Beautiful Shot, who after getting destroyed in both Arkansas and New York earlier this year found some of his best form last out when back in the friendly confines of California, in the Woody Stephens?

...is Ransom The Moon, a noted West coast sprinter who was upset in his comeback race and who I believe has lost all but one of his starts beyond 6.5 furlongs, in the Met Mile?

...is Fashion Business, who finally realized some of the promise he displayed last summer by winning his 4yo debut in a first condition allowance race off a long layoff, in the Grade 1 Manhattan against an international field of battle-tested horses?

...is Multiplier, a Triple Crown cast off who finally woke up last out in his first career turf start to win desperately in a blanket finish of non-winners 2x horses, in the Grade 1 Manhattan against an international field of battle-tested horses?

Suddenly Bolt D'Oro contesting the Met Mile off a humiliating performance in the Kentucky Derby, in which his jock decided to see if the horse could run a :45 and change 1/2 mile and keep going for another 6 furlongs (he couldn't), makes a lot more sense to me...

Good stuff

[RHT2004]

My stakes thoughts coming soon.

[RHT2004]

8-1 on Outplay? Feels like a 3-1 shot to me. Absolute loan speed.

[Alabama Stakes]

Wow what a great card of racing. Should be an exciting day especially if hitting a few races along the way. Hopefully somebody is gonna put everyone on a winner that they’ve been waiting on.

[richard burch]

Being in the #1 post might force his hand to go to the front. He will get tired the last 1/8th and come in third or 4th.


Gronkowski....1st time lasix.....oooooohhhhhhhhhhh


Noble Indy.....Blinkers off....working bullets for the Todd master...

Exacta:
3/4/6/9/10
over
3/4/6/9/10

[pucknut]

May win with ease but two straight races with declining g Beyers is not for me.
Going with the Berg to ice the fav