Barclay Tagg's comments on NoBiz

[KY_Sasquash]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Was anybody suggesting that Nobiz would or should stand for a higher fee than Street Sense? I don't think so. If anybody did they are crazy. KY_Sasquash listed Street Sense in a list with established sires like AP Indy, Dynaformer, and Storm Cat. That didn't make sense to me.

meant street cry. and yes i'd consider street sense a hot line right now since (pun intended) he's producing progeny that are winning on turf,dirt, poly, long, short, filly, colt-he's quite versatile and doesnt seem to have many weaknesses.

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by KY_Sasquash

No, see parisixfarm's comment. explains it perfectly. obviously another G1 would help his stallion resume, but with his bloodlines he going to have to "move up his mares" before he gets top broodmares. an example would be Dynamformer, he started out at $7,500 and has climbed the ladder to where he is now.

Dynaformer entered stud 17 years ago. I think you'll need to come up with another example. $7,500 was alot of money back then. I don't think you can assume anything nowadays when it comes to stud fees. Especially if NoBiz turns out to be a sound horse that dominates the Turf division for the next year or two.

[KY_Sasquash]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Running him in the Classic makes little to no sense. He's already proven to be vastly inferior to the competition he would face in that race. Perhaps next year if the handicap division is weak Tagg could conceivably take a shot on the dirt again during the year but my guess is once he races a horse successfully on the grass he is loathe to switch surfaces. Unlike Showing Up, who had feet issues which kept him on the grass, NoBiz could at least physically make the switch. Perhaps Chuck can answer this but it is my understanding that trainers usually don't like moving from one surface to another especially after establishing success on one.

Im not saying that he'd be the favorite, but at 20-1 (probably longer on race day) I think he'd have a great shot to hit he board; dont know if he could win, but I'd sure like to see him try. The only bad race that he ran in the spring was in the Derby, which can be excused and he was beaten 4 lengths by Any Given Saturday in the Dwyer. His bloodlines suggest that he's finally maturing and maybe he was too immature in the spring to keep up with the other 3yos(certainly ran that way). Now the tight turns at Monmouth might be to his liking, but I think he'd only have to worry about Street Sense, Lawyer Ron, Curlin, who probably wont like the tight turns too, and Any Given Saturday, who's last race wasnt the most impressive so I dont think its that unrealistic of a spot for him.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by KY_Sasquash

but I think he'd only have to worry about Street Sense, Lawyer Ron, Curlin, who probably wont like the tight turns too, and Any Given Saturday.

That's it?

Originally Posted by Cardus

This is Steve Haskin's take on NoBiz:

The Mile would be a tough spot, with a big field and post positions so important, but one thing is for sure, we haven’t seen an American turf horse with that kind of e turn of foot in quite a while.

I guess Kitten's Joy is ancient history.

Haskin is clueless. Nobiz doesn't even have the most e turn of foot in his own barn. Nobiz is slow. All these writers that hyped Nobiz for some reason earlier in the year are covering their butt. Nobiz is not in the BC Mile because he is not that fast.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

That's it?

When you consider 4th place is $250,000 and 5th is still over $100,000 it doesn't sound so daunting.

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by Benevolus

Haskin is clueless. Nobiz doesn't even have the most e turn of foot in his own barn. Nobiz is slow. All these writers that hyped Nobiz for some reason earlier in the year are covering their butt. Nobiz is not in the BC Mile because he is not that fast.

How much faster than the 34 and 4 he came home in do you want him to run?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

When you consider 4th place is $250,000 and 5th is still over $100,000 it doesn't sound so daunting.

His owner is worth a zillion dollars. Running him in a tough race like that and hoping for scaps makes no sense whatsoever.

The horse has had a full campaign this year. He should run where he belongs.

[King Glorious]

I don't see anything wrong with an attempt in the Classic. In my opinion, Nobiz looks like a better horse now. He looks more relaxed during his races, which is very important for him. I'm not saying that this will put him in the same class as horses like Curlin, Street Sense, Lawyer Ron and maybe Any Given Saturday but I honestly can't see any of the other probable entrants to the race that I wouldn't say he could compete with. As mentioned, AGS didn't look good at all in his last race, SS doesn't appear to really have improved since the spring and there is no telling how much the JCGC might have taken out of Curlin and/or Lawyer Ron. So going in, he might be the fifth best horse and if his improvement over the second half of the year is not only coincidental with his switch to grass, it's not too hard for me to see a scenario where he could make the super or the tri. If the attempt goes bad, put him back on the grass for next year or wait till all of the big boys from this year are retired and try dirt again later. I don't see where there is a losing side to taking a shot.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by KY_Sasquash

A G1 winning son of AP Indy, Storm Cat, or Gone West has a higher ceiling for a stud fee than a son of Albert the Great. Nobiz would have to dance every dance and repeatedly win G1's for him to stand above $20k-breeders arent going to pay an unreasonable stud fee on him when they can go to lines from these lines for similar or less fees. Street Sense was a typo. I meant Street Cry.

I agree with you about the higher ceiling.
But my point is that if you take a horse like Empire Maker, and ask the question 'would winning a G1 on turf have enhanced his original stud fee,' what is the answer? I don't think it would have made much of a difference because he was a son of a noted sire in Unbridled that had already shown flashes of talent. Therefore his original stud fee was already going to be - as we saw - extremely high.
A horse with a "lesser pedigree" like Nobiz has more to gain by continued on-track performance, because - although his ceiling is unquestionably lower than a horse like Empire Maker - he can only reach that ceiling with sustained on-track performance. He can't simply run eight times, show some talent, and then command top dollar. The only way he will generate any interest at all as a stallion is by demonstrating top on-track performances. I think being a G1 winner on turf would help him on that front.

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

How much faster than the 34 and 4 he came home in do you want him to run?

The Belmont turf is so hard that maidens are running 6f in 108 and change. His race was not that fast and he is still nothing more than a 95-100 beyer horse. The 3yr old turf horses in america are terrible as usual, but Nobiz can't compete with the top turf horses in the world or even america. Horses like Kitten's Joy, Showing Up, and even Kip Deville were much faster 3yr old turf horses. Nobiz is just well placed by a trainer that understands that horse can't compete with the top dirt horses or the top grass horses. He could move up next year, like an After Market did, but if you look at the career of Nobiz, he appears to be no faster today than he was at 2.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

Dynaformer entered stud 17 years ago. I think you'll need to come up with another example. $7,500 was alot of money back then. I don't think you can assume anything nowadays when it comes to stud fees. Especially if NoBiz turns out to be a sound horse that dominates the Turf division for the next year or two.

Recent examples are Hall of Fame horses like Holy Bull, Skip Away and Silver Charm. Neither of them was by fashionable sires, so their initial stud fees were relatively modest in comparison to their race track heroics. (I'm not commenting on their success at stud, although in the interest of full disclosure, I do currently have a mare in foal to Holy Bull.)

Right now, Nobiz would stand for about $7500. That is it. A son of Albert the Great just won't fetch much. A grade 3 winning son of AP Indy would fetch more than a grade 1 winning son of Albert the Great, especially if he is viewed as a turf sire.

I could see Nobiz in Florida or NY, not KY.

[King Glorious]

People complain about the small fields in the big races these days but then when we have a horse that could likely be one of the five or six best horses in the race, for the $5 million BC Classic, people are saying it's stupid to consider him. So should any horse that's not considered one of those top five or six also be withdrawn from consideration also and just search for an easier spot, maybe the Cigar or the Clark? Yeah, let's leave the Classic with a five horse field because it's no use taking a shot if u aren't one of the top five.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Benevolus

Right now, Nobiz would stand for about $7500. That is it. A son of Albert the Great just won't fetch much. A grade 3 winning son of AP Indy would fetch more than a grade 1 winning son of Albert the Great, especially if he is viewed as a turf sire.

I could see Nobiz in Florida or NY, not KY.

Nobiz has 'nobiz' in KY, is that what you're saying? I kid.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

His owner is worth a zillion dollars. Running him in a tough race like that and hoping for scaps makes no sense whatsoever.

The horse has had a full campaign this year. He should run where he belongs.

See, that to me just says the opposite. If you don't care about the money then building a stallion resume isn't a big concern so why not take the shot in the BC Classic even at 30/1?

Really, I think it all should come down to two factors. First, do they think he turned the corner in his last race and is now a better horse than he was earlier in the year. And two, do they feel based on the Derby that he isn't going to excel at 10 furlongs on the dirt or do they feel there were other factors that day that accounted for the poor showing. My guess is that they don't think he had an excuse in the Derby and didn't ever want 10 furlongs on the dirt which is why the Classic isn't an option.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

People complain about the small fields in the big races these days but then when we have a horse that could likely be one of the five or six best horses in the race, for the $5 million BC Classic, people are saying it's stupid to consider him. So should any horse that's not considered one of those top five or six also be withdrawn from consideration also and just search for an easier spot, maybe the Cigar or the Clark? Yeah, let's leave the Classic with a five horse field because it's no use taking a shot if u aren't one of the top five.

I think there can be a difference between what we would like to see as fans/horseplayers and what we think the connections should do with their horses.
As a fan (and somebody who plans on playing the BC races) I would like to see full fields for every race. I would love for Nobiz to be in a BC race - especially the classic - because it is more fun to see a race with a big field and because some people would probably be foolish enough to bet some money on him.
The fact that, as a fan, I would like to see him in the race does not mean that I have to think it would be a smart decision on the part of his connections to actually enter him in the race.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

People complain about the small fields in the big races these days but then when we have a horse that could likely be one of the five or six best horses in the race, for the $5 million BC Classic, people are saying it's stupid to consider him. So should any horse that's not considered one of those top five or six also be withdrawn from consideration also and just search for an easier spot, maybe the Cigar or the Clark? Yeah, let's leave the Classic with a five horse field because it's no use taking a shot if u aren't one of the top five.

It is foolish because there are much better alternatives. If they run in a BC race he clearly should be in the Mile. The BC Turf is probably the second choice. However, Tagg, who is one of the great trainers in the game, has said he is pointing to the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby. He isn't leaving this horse in the barn, and never has, but instead has picked one good spot for him after another. Yet, somehow people here apparently know better than he does where and when he should run the horse.

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by Benevolus

Right now, Nobiz would stand for about $7500. That is it. A son of Albert the Great just won't fetch much. A grade 3 winning son of AP Indy would fetch more than a grade 1 winning son of Albert the Great, especially if he is viewed as a turf sire.

I could see Nobiz in Florida or NY, not KY.

Who care's what you think he would stand for right now? Last time I checked he'll be racing next month. He's a 3 YO for Christmas sake. Not every horse has "has done enough" by the summer of their sophomore season. Everybody screams and cries about horses retiring early (Hard Spun, Street Sense, Any Given Saturday, etc...) just let him be and enjoy him. He's run 3 times on turf and has won 2 grade 2's and a grade 3. Maybe he will turn into a nice sound grass horse that we can have around for a few years. You can worry about how much he'll fetch after he accomplishes something worth discussing.

Originally Posted by Benevolus

The Belmont turf is so hard that maidens are running 6f in 108 and change. His race was not that fast and he is still nothing more than a 95-100 beyer horse. The 3yr old turf horses in america are terrible as usual, but Nobiz can't compete with the top turf horses in the world or even america. Horses like Kitten's Joy, Showing Up, and even Kip Deville were much faster 3yr old turf horses. Nobiz is just well placed by a trainer that understands that horse can't compete with the top dirt horses or the top grass horses. He could move up next year, like an After Market did, but if you look at the career of Nobiz, he appears to be no faster today than he was at 2.

What is wrong with the 102 beyer he earned under a hand ride on Saturday?

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Nobiz has 'nobiz' in KY, is that what you're saying? I kid.

Exactly. With his name maybe they should stand him in CA or NY.

He is a nice horse but all the hype around a horse that is clearly a notch below the top horses is puzzling.