Va Derby

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I would say if one evaluates horses based on their own opinions that those opinions are far more valuable than opinions from people close to horses.

Showing Up is a " freak "? That is like people who call Smarty Jones " great ". Let's see a few more races from him. He's a good horse but how good is still very much open to debate.

He told me the same thing about Barbaro late last year. They know their stuff and his only turf race was pretty impressive so who am I to argue. They also love this Rumspringa horse in the BC Sprint.

[blackthroatedwind]

I don't think you made a stupid comment, and certainly don't because of what someone else said, and not only believe he could be in this year's BC mile. I could EASILY see him in the Maker's Mark at Keeneland next spring to begin his year.

He won one race, with a perfect trip against a bad field, I would hardly say the rest of his career is written on stone. And, it certainly shouldn't be.

Originally Posted by boldruler

He probably is. I plan on getting a mare to breed with him, but don't plan on paying his fee.

It is nice to have tose connections...good for you....I can't imagine his stud fee range ever getting much higher than $25,000 and he would have to do alot to get to that level IMO.....He'll probably stand for $7,500 to $20,000 with a VERY GOOD racing career - which means winning at least a couple Gr. Is and being a top class performer at least through age 4...the fat he possesses soem speed and held a one-turn track record will help to market him....if he was a plodder he would be hopeless at stud regardless of how many Gr. Is he won....breeders want pedigree and speed as much as they want to breed to a quality, top-shelf horse.....with Showing Up's pedigree he is starting well behind already and if he only accomplishes greatness on the grass it will hurt him even more...he'll need to swap back to the dirt and try to win the Met Mile next year or another improtant dirt race if he wants to be stood in a good market like KY for $10,000 or more.......If he just has grass credentials he is probably suited better standing in New York or somewhere IMO.....

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by boldruler

He told me the same thing about Barbaro late last year. They know their stuff and his only turf race was pretty impressive so who am I to argue. They also love this Rumspringa horse in the BC Sprint.

Rumspringa in the BC Sprint?

Come on!

Originally Posted by boldruler

He will definitely race next year, unless he got hurt. The BC Mile is still an option I guess but I made the stupid comment that he should be a turf miler because he ran well at one mile on the dirt and my friend laughed at me and said that means nothing.

I think your freind is highly irrational then....If Showing Up makes it to the BC I really think the Mile would be his best opportunity - that is unless the Classic division thins out a little between now and then....I don't think he'll Turf 1 1/2-miles and beat the Euros and I don't think he can beat Flower Alley and Bernardini, etc. going 1 1/4-miles on the dirt - although I wouldn't blame them for trying this...he is a good animal....

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

It is nice to have tose connections...good for you....I can't imagine his stud fee range ever getting much higher than $25,000 and he would have to do alot to get to that level IMO.....He'll probably stand for $7,500 to $20,000 with a VERY GOOD racing career - which means winning at least a couple Gr. Is and being a top class performer at least through age 4...the fat he possesses soem speed and held a one-turn track record will help to market him....if he was a plodder he would be hopeless at stud regardless of how many Gr. Is he won....breeders want pedigree and speed as much as they want to breed to a quality, top-shelf horse.....with Showing Up's pedigree he is starting well behind already and if he only accomplishes greatness on the grass it will hurt him even more...he'll need to swap back to the dirt and try to win the Met Mile next year or another improtant dirt race if he wants to be stood in a good market like KY for $10,000 or more.......If he just has grass credentials he is probably suited better standing in New York or somewhere IMO.....

A big win in Europe on the grass will make him a little more valuable. Believe it or not, they wanted to take Barbaro over to Europe for a race and I think that is the plan for Showing Up. I think he is likely to be in the $10,000 range if he can pull off a few grade 1's on the turf. I doubt the Met Mile will even be on his radar, I believe a big race in Europe and the BC Turf will be his targets in 2007. He is a nice dirt horse, but his beyers were nothing impressive to me on the dirt. He clearly is a better horse on the turf, which he should be based on his breeding.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I don't think you made a stupid comment, and certainly don't because of what someone else said, and not only believe he could be in this year's BC mile. I could EASILY see him in the Maker's Mark at Keeneland next spring to begin his year.

He won one race, with a perfect trip against a bad field, I would hardly say the rest of his career is written on stone. And, it certainly shouldn't be.

It would be interesting to see him run against the horse they sold, George Washington, who I think will be in the Breeders Cup Mile, but I really don't know that much about what the status is of that horse except that he was crazy when they had him and a real handful to deal with.

Originally Posted by boldruler

A big win in Europe on the grass will make him a little more valuable. Believe it or not, they wanted to take Barbaro over to Europe for a race and I think that is the plan for Showing Up. I think he is likely to be in the $10,000 range if he can pull off a few grade 1's on the turf. I doubt the Met Mile will even be on his radar, I believe a big race in Europe and the BC Turf will be his targets in 2007. He is a nice dirt horse, but his beyers were nothing impressive to me on the dirt. He clearly is a better horse on the turf, which he should be based on his breeding.

Personally, I think he is about as good on either surface based on what we've seen right now...just a good honest animal...his Derby was certainly no shame considering what he was faced with and being close to that quick pace.....I like this horse and think he'll prove to be very nice on both dirt and turf...I really do...

As for Barbaro, I sincerely thought he was the next superstar on TURF and still thought that after the Derby....I heard they were planning on maybe taking him to France at year's end for the Arc from what I heard but obviously that is out.............I sincerely think that Barbaro was a future SUPERSTAR on the grass...I really do...his Derby was great but I still thought he might have been beter on grass watching his turf races....what a brillaint horse...I betcha if they save him that his progeny will be better on turf....we won't know for a while obviosuly....

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

I think your freind is highly irrational then....If Showing Up makes it to the BC I really think the Mile would be his best opportunity - that is unless the Classic division thins out a little between now and then....I don't think he'll Turf 1 1/2-miles and beat the Euros and I don't think he can beat Flower Alley and Bernardini, etc. going 1 1/4-miles on the dirt - although I wouldn't blame them for trying this...he is a good animal....

No more dirt for him. He really couldn't ever beat the top 3yr olds or older horses on the surface anyway. He is a nice 100 beyer type of horse on dirt. On grass they swear he is the next superstar.

Originally Posted by boldruler

No more dirt for him. He really couldn't ever beat the top 3yr olds or older horses on the surface anyway. He is a nice 100 beyer type of horse on dirt. On grass they swear he is the next superstar.

We'll see....but I still think they swap back at some point...they'd be close-minded not to try.....Plus, his stud value may really depend on it if he wants to stand in this country....seriously....nobody wants to breed to a Turf horse in North America...they just don't...

[blackthroatedwind]

I won't be surprised to see him in the Met Mile either. I think the evidence is FAR from conclusive that he's a better turf horse than dirt horse and as Joel has pointed out there is little interest in breeding to turf horses in the US and for reasonably good reason.

A lot of decisions about this horse's future seem to be being made based on one race. I'm not so sure the best race he ever ran wasn't his debut. And, running 6th in the Derby, on two weeks rest with little bottom, wasn't too shabby either.

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

We'll see....but I still think they swap back at some point...they'd be close-minded not to try.....Plus, his stud value may really depend on it if he wants to stand in this country....seriously....nobody wants to breed to a Turf horse in North America...they just don't...

I think Tagg just feels he is a much better horse on the turf. I know they wanted to go back to the dirt but it sounds like they gave up on that. Who knows though after a beating by some europeans on the turf he might change his mind. They have to be looking at the poor crop of 3yr old turf horses though and wondering how any of them could ever beat him.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I won't be surprised to see him in the Met Mile either. I think the evidence is FAR from conclusive that he's a better turf horse than dirt horse and as Joel has pointed out there is little interest in breeding to turf horses in the US and for reasonably good reason.

A lot of decisions about this horse's future seem to be being made based on one race. I'm not so sure the best race he ever ran wasn't his debut. And, running 6th in the Derby, on two weeks rest with little bottom, wasn't too shabby either.

I would love to see him back on the dirt, but Tagg isn't making his opinion up on just one race. These are his words "I just never thought he looked real comfortable on the dirt even though he was very impressive on it in several of his races," Tagg said of the colt. "One day we jogged him off on the turf and he just looked like he was reborn."

Tagg wasn't the only one who thought this, some guys who really know the business saw the same thing. I believe a few large offers were made on the horse, but I have no idea if that is really the case.

[SentToStud]

Really now. He's obviously very nice but it's pretty senseless to proclaim him a star until he meets and beats other nice horses in a race where they're all well meant. The Colonial Cup was not such a race. He ran great but after all he did have the trip of a lifetime from a favorable post and never really had to run for position or make room for his run. Let's see how he does in the Seretariat on a bit tighter course where he'll be meeting other colts who have been pointed for the race and where he'll not likely have as smooth a trip. If he wins big there, I'll be the first to proclaim him special.

[blackthroatedwind]

Well, Tagg knows much better than me.

Not that I am a big believer in Beyer figs on the grass ( or any figs on the grass for that matter ) but he did get a 102 in Virginia. That's pretty good and barely puts him behind these supposed monster older horses running.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Well, Tagg knows much better than me.

Not that I am a big believer in Beyer figs on the grass ( or any figs on the grass for that matter ) but he did get a 102 in Virginia. That's pretty good and barely puts him behind these supposed monster older horses running.

Beyers on the turf are useless. Honestly I am not sure why, but I have been told this repeatedly by people. A few guys hate beyers all together. I like them because they are easy to figure out, but I am not a guy who bets real money except 2-3x a year.

Originally Posted by SentToStud

Really now. He's obviously very nice but it's pretty senseless to proclaim him a star until he meets and beats other nice horses in a race where they're all well meant. The Colonial Cup was not such a race. He ran great but after all he did have the trip of a lifetime from a favorable post and never really had to run for position or make room for his run. Let's see how he does in the Seretariat on a bit tighter course where he'll be meeting other colts who have been pointed for the race and where he'll not likely have as smooth a trip. If he wins big there, I'll be the first to proclaim him special.

They are skipping a pretty easy million dollar spot to target the Secretariat, so they must think they have something there.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by boldruler

They are skipping a pretty easy million dollar spot to target the Secretariat, so they must think they have something there.

i'm sure they think so. Then again, maybe the VA race is a bit fast back. He ran great las t out. But, he really did trip out very well there. Looking forward to the next one.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by boldruler

Beyers on the turf are useless. Honestly I am not sure why, but I have been told this repeatedly by people. A few guys hate beyers all together. I like them because they are easy to figure out, but I am not a guy who bets real money except 2-3x a year.

The basic problem with speed figures in turf races is that the final times are, irrelevent is a simplistic word, maybe simplisticly misleading. The pace is a major determinent of the final time and it is often only the final 5/16 to 1/4 mile where real running is done. It is a totally different animal than dirt racing where final time is of much greater importance.

Originally Posted by boldruler

Beyers on the turf are useless. Honestly I am not sure why, but I have been told this repeatedly by people. A few guys hate beyers all together. I like them because they are easy to figure out, but I am not a guy who bets real money except 2-3x a year.

The only thing I like about Beyers (on either surface) is betting against them...I love when the public picks up on a false favorite due to an exaggerated Beyer fig....happens all the time and creates great value for people who have a better system...I have found Rags to be the most sophisticated speed figs, but who can afford $40 a day?...Not me.