Derby Grid/Graded Earnings - Page 6

brianwspencer · #**101** 04-21-2008, 05:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

It would be hard to imagine Recapturetheglory being 40-1 coming off a win with a relatively high fig. . .

It's the difference between what he likely deserves to be and what he actually WILL be. That Hawthorne fig will jump off the page to lots of casual bettors with no real knowledge of what happened outside of the bold number attached to it.

I'd be shocked if he was sent to post at 40-1, coming in with one of the best last race Beyers.

philcski · #**102** 04-21-2008, 05:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by IrishofNDMan

I predicted recapturetheglory at 40-1 rather than 25-1, and Monba at 20-1 rather than 13-1.

I would say that Gayego will be about 14-1 instead of 21-1 (I'm not touching either way) and I think Smooth Air will be in the 20's instead of 32-1.

Don't get me wrong I think it's a great list you made, I wanted to just add some of my opinions.

Monba and Gayego are two very interesting possibilities in terms of their off odds. Monba, you have the Pletcher factor for but the average dirt form against. Gayego, you have an excellent overall form but a severely disadvantaged pedigree to go a mile and a quarter, plus somewhat lesser connections, even with Mike Smith riding. I could see you being right on both those, as if you just look at PP's and ignore the pedigree and connections, Gayego is the much better horse.

It's a fun and difficult exercise, because it really gets you focused on what the public will think rather than what YOU want it to be. Perhaps my hope on Smooth Air is 32-1 and I'm being too optimistic, he certainly could take more money that that.

Gander · #**103** 04-21-2008, 05:24 PM

I think Recapture the Glory is well near or even more than 40/1 come post time. The Illinois Derby isnt really all that well known. Especially to the guys who bet big on just this day like Kid Rock. Hes going to look at that race and be like, "I didnt even know there was an Illinois Derby." He beat a bunch of lizards that day. Neither him nor anyone in that field will see the top 10 in the Derby when its all said and done. He wont get away loose on the lead with Bob Black Jack either.

I initially thought 16/1 was too low for Cool Coal Man, but Zito has a huge fanbase, many of whom bet big on this race and they want whichever horse he is training. The other one is a turtle, so Cool Coal Man is their only viable option. Friends of his like Mickelson and George Clooney will probably plunk down 100K between them to win. If War Pass was in, Cool Coal Man would be closer to 40/1. Now Zito obsessors will make him in the teens.

The Indomitable DrugS · #**104** 04-21-2008, 05:27 PM

My first and only rolleyes post.

brianwspencer · #**105** 04-21-2008, 05:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander

I think Recapture the Glory is well near or even more than 40/1 come post time. The Illinois Derby isnt really all that well known. Especially to the guys who bet big on just this day like Kid Rock. Hes going to look at that race and be like, "I didnt even know there was an Illinois Derby." He beat a bunch of lizards that day. Neither him nor anyone in that field will see the top 10 in the Derby when its all said and done. He wont get away loose on the lead with Bob Black Jack either.

As opposed to all of the celebrity big spenders for whom the Wood Memorial just jumps off the page?

hockey2315 · #**106** 04-21-2008, 05:31 PM

I'm with Drugs. Wow.

Gander · #**107** 04-21-2008, 05:35 PM

The Wood, Florida Derby are the 2 high profile ones. The Arkansas Derby has increased in stock because the Blue Grass and SA Derby are now run on the crap. But I agree, this year's Wood stunk, save for a huge effort by War Pass just to last as long as he did. If Tale of Ekati was anything other than a turtle, he would have collared him at the top of the stretch.

As far as the big spenders go, they bet the high profile trainers like Zito, Baffert and Lukas, and we are only down to Zito for this year. Cool Coal Man equals a terrible underlay imo.

If I find out who Ben Affleck likes, I will let you know. His bet will move a horse's odds probably 5-7 points.

TheSpyder · #**108** 04-21-2008, 05:40 PM

He gives his pick here:

Gander · #**109** 04-21-2008, 05:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheSpyder

He gives his pick here:

LOL! That duck knows more than Ben about horses. But the difference is that duck poops feces, and Ben poops $100 bills faster than an ATM machine.
If I had his money I would spend all my time at the dirtiest OTB I could find and never have to wash my hair again. I'd fit right in.

philcski · #**110** 04-21-2008, 05:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander

I think Recapture the Glory is well near or even more than 40/1 come post time. The Illinois Derby isnt really all that well known. Especially to the guys who bet big on just this day like Kid Rock. Hes going to look at that race and be like, "I didnt even know there was an Illinois Derby." He beat a bunch of lizards that day. Neither him nor anyone in that field will see the top 10 in the Derby when its all said and done. He wont get away loose on the lead with Bob Black Jack either.

I initially thought 16/1 was too low for Cool Coal Man, but Zito has a huge fanbase, many of whom bet big on this race and they want whichever horse he is training. The other one is a turtle, so Cool Coal Man is their only viable option. Friends of his like Mickelson and George Clooney will probably plunk down 100K between them to win. If War Pass was in, Cool Coal Man would be closer to 40/1. Now Zito obsessors will make him in the teens.

The winner of the Illinois Derby has gone off at:
2002: 21-1 (War Emblem, won)
2003: 6.6-1 (Ten Most Wanted, 9th)
2004: 24-1 (Pollard's Vision, 17th)
2005: 21-1 (Greeley's Galaxy, 11th)
2006: 5.5-1*favorite (Sweetnorthernsaint, 7th)
2007: 19.8-1 (Cowtown Cat, 20th and last)

All had similar credentials coming into the Derby as Recapturetheglory- I think you're underestimating the betting public's knowledge of the race.

And celebrity selections don't drive the odds when there's $50-75 million in the win pool...

The Indomitable DrugS · #**111** 04-21-2008, 05:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

And celebrity selections don't drive the odds when there's $50-75 million in the win pool...

I have it on good word that the Queen of England is pondering the possibility of making a $15 million bet on Recapturetheglory - however, she might call a last second audible and just opt to make an 850K exacta wheel with him on top of the all button.

Gander · #**112** 04-21-2008, 05:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

The winner of the Illinois Derby has gone off at:
2002: 21-1 (War Emblem, won)
2003: 6.6-1 (Ten Most Wanted, 9th)
2004: 24-1 (Pollard's Vision, 17th)
2005: 21-1 (Greeley's Galaxy, 11th)
2006: 5.5-1*favorite (Sweetnorthernsaint, 7th)
2007: 19.8-1 (Cowtown Cat, 20th and last)

All had similar credentials coming into the Derby as Recapturetheglory- I think you're underestimating the betting public's knowledge of the race.

And celebrity selections don't drive the odds when there's $50-75 million in the win pool...

Did Ten Most Wanted really go off at 6/1? And SNS at 5/1? LOL!
Maybe you are right and Recapture the Glory will go off closer to 10/1.
Hes a very nice horse, just not for this particular race.

Gander · #**113** 04-21-2008, 05:51 PM

You guys are right. The real money will come from those guys you see cashing in bottles and cans to finance their next trip to the OTB, or those guys who dont pay any bills but yet have to hock their ipods to make their next bet. They are the big bettors who sway the odds.

brianwspencer · #**114** 04-21-2008, 05:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander

You guys are right. The real money will come from those guys you see cashing in bottles and cans to finance their next trip to the OTB, or those guys who dont pay any bills but yet have to hock their ipods to make their next bet. They are the big bettors who sway the odds.

You're sorely underestimating the amount of stupid money in the pools on Derby day.

philcski · #**115** 04-21-2008, 05:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander

You guys are right. The real money will come from those guys you see cashing in bottles and cans to finance their next trip to the OTB, or those guys who dont pay any bills but yet have to hock their ipods to make their next bet. They are the big bettors who sway the odds.

Just remember this... Charles Cella bet a HALF MILLION DOLLARS on Smarty Jones to win the Derby when he was in line to cash the $5 million bonus for sweeping the Arkansas series & the KD, because he had only insured 1/2 of the prize, and SJ still went off at 4.10-1. Now THAT'S a big bet!

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I have it on good word that the Queen of England is pondering the possibility of making a $15 million bet on Recapturetheglory - however, she might call a last second audible and just opt to make an 850K exacta wheel with him on top of the all button.

Send her my way... I'll book the bet

tiggerv · #**116** 04-21-2008, 06:18 PM

Ben Affleck moving the Derby pool is is the funniest thing I have ever read on this site. Well done.

IrishofNDMan · #**117** 04-21-2008, 06:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tiggerv

Ben Affleck moving the Derby pool is is the funniest thing I have ever read on this site. Well done.

I loved it, as I'm sure the rest of the board does as well.

Gander · #**118** 04-21-2008, 06:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

You're sorely underestimating the amount of stupid money in the pools on Derby day.

Brian, you are misunderstanding me. These celebs I speak of, are the ones who throw the "stupid money" around creating bad underlays. Thus I am fully aware of the "stupid money". They arent stupid people (obviously) but they simply can afford to lose 100K without blinking an eye. I dont think the degenrates you see filling up OTBs on Tuesdays are the ones who create underlays.

Its the only race of the year you can count on the celebs to throw around "stupid money".

Danzig · #**119** 04-21-2008, 07:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

Just remember this... Charles Cella bet a HALF MILLION DOLLARS on Smarty Jones to win the Derby when he was in line to cash the $5 million bonus for sweeping the Arkansas series & the KD, because he had only insured 1/2 of the prize, and SJ still went off at 4.10-1. Now THAT'S a big bet!

Send her my way... I'll book the bet

after smartys last work pre-derby, cella got ins for the other half of the bonus. he's no dummy.

philcski · #**120** 04-21-2008, 07:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig

after smartys last work pre-derby, cella got ins for the other half of the bonus. he's no dummy.

Yeah... his insurance was he bought a win ticket for $500k! The insurance company was asking for $1mm for the $2.5mm coverage, and he said "well damn, I can just bet him to win and get better than that!"