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#61
07-10-2008, 12:37 PM
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#63
07-10-2008, 01:27 PM
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It will be a very exciting race to watch. The fan part of me will root for him, the handicapper part of me who is struggling to be less amateurish will bet against him. I don't think he will be able to get it done. But while I appreciate the efforts by the connections, I worry about what a bad defeat will do to his confidence and ability moving forward where-ever Assman and his babe Maggi go. I assume they are inseparable now. I just hope they do the best for the horse. He deserves it, but I don't trust Assmussan or Jackson.
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Ron Thompson   Avatar is Invasor in his stall/Post Classic taken by my trusty cell phone camera.
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#65
07-10-2008, 01:36 PM
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#66
07-10-2008, 02:06 PM
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#67
07-10-2008, 02:13 PM
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#68
07-10-2008, 02:19 PM
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#69
07-10-2008, 02:29 PM
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I'm all ears if there's a legitimate explanation as to why Asmussen, Dutrow, Contessa, etc. are consistently much less effective on the grass.
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#70
07-10-2008, 03:01 PM
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Asmussen's 17% on turf and 23% overall for the year. . . It's not like he's incapable of training a turf horse - he's probably getting a lot more dirt/speed type horses than someone like Mott or Clement and he's probably just a better dirt trainer. If you gave him a good turf horse, though, I'm sure he'd be capable of training it. Contessa - well that's easy - first of all he's not a very good trainer - but. . . when does he have most of his success? Aqueduct Inner when there's no turf and the competition level is much lower. . . Of course he's not going to out-train Mott, Clement, etc. on turf at Belmont and Saratoga. He's a 9% turf trainer and right now he's 7% at Belmont with all starters - which is a much more telling stat than comparing his 15% for the year vs. 9% turf. Dutrow - Whether he's juicing or not - I just think he's a very good trainer. His numbers are a little lower on turf - but he's another guy who deals with a lot of claiming types. But, he's also proven that he can train turf horses - Kip Deville. Interesting stats: At Saratoga from '05-'07: Sprints: 28% with a $2.28 ROI - Routes: 22% with a $1.38 ROI. Turf Sprints: 25% with a $2.61 ROI. My guess would be that he's not great with turf routers but I don't have that stat. What about Frankel? He's supposed to be a "super trainer" but he wins at a slightly higher clip on turf - 19% turf but 18% overall. I don't follow them closely but don't guys like Mullins, Lake, Catalano, and Amoss also do well on turf and move horses up on it? The whole "juice doesn't turf" philosophy is completely obsolete at this point.
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#71
07-10-2008, 03:28 PM
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All very good points. The numbers are less disparate than I thought. I also am not saying that juicers can't train turf horses. However, I still feel like juice would generally be more effective with dirt horses. There's a reason why guys like Dutrow and Contessa are the ones consistently employed by those in the cheap claim game and not those with turf horses.
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#72
07-12-2008, 04:39 PM
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#73
07-12-2008, 05:15 PM
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Great call Matt. You have been on Red Rocks all week. He absolutely got the perfect set up he needed and took advantage.
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#74
07-12-2008, 05:28 PM
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Good call Hooves.
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#75
07-12-2008, 06:49 PM
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But the rest of the field did not exactly encounter a mess after those two ran off. Curlin had his chance. I would like to see another go on grass though where he actually has a chance of losing. I wonder where this sets him up BC wise running on the man made stuff...
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#77
07-12-2008, 08:21 PM
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#79
07-12-2008, 09:42 PM
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 Twice is a charm Kevin
__________________
"but there's just no point in trying to predict when the narcissits finally figure out they aren't living in the most important time ever." hi im god quote
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