Good Lord another pletcher freak

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Are you sure about that? I have listed below the number of derby winners that debuted in each month for the past fourteen years.

June 3
July 2
August 1
Sept 3
Oct 3
Nov 1
Dec 1

As it turns out June is a pretty popular month to debut a future derby winner.
Also all of the June starts were at 5 furlongs so that distance would appear to be quite useful in getting a horse to 10F. This is not a huge amount of data but it is enough to show how far off base your comment was.

Thanks for the stats. I didn't know that. Very interesting...

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Are you sure about that? I have listed below the number of derby winners that debuted in each month for the past fourteen years.

June 3
July 2
August 1
Sept 3
Oct 3
Nov 1
Dec 1

As it turns out June is a pretty popular month to debut a future derby winner.
Also all of the June starts were at 5 furlongs so that distance would appear to be quite useful in getting a horse to 10F. This is not a huge amount of data but it is enough to show how far off base your comment was.

Have to read the entire thread but have to agree that horses winning now mean nothing. They are just too fragile now and the odds are clearly in favor of horses that debut in the late summer/fall.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by Hoisttheflag

Have to read the entire thread but have to agree that horses winning now mean nothing. They are just too fragile now and the odds are clearly in favor of horses that debut in the late summer/fall.

A whole lot of very good three year olds have come out of the Sanford...

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

A whole lot of very good three year olds have come out of the Sanford...

It sounds like they are talking about this horse that won today and the odds are against him even making the derby. Some really nice horses to come out of those 2yr old stake races at Saratoga but can't recall any ever winning the derby. Afleet Alex did win the Hopeful, but not the derby.

I think these two year olds should just race when they are ready, but should have some time between races. You have to remember though that the key is to just give them foundation and they need races to get it. I have always thought 3 races as a 2yr old and 3 races as a 3yr old prior to the derby are what they need.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Hoisttheflag

Have to read the entire thread but have to agree that horses winning now mean nothing. They are just too fragile now and the odds are clearly in favor of horses that debut in the late summer/fall.

I was just pointing out that debuting in June at five furlongs has led to a derby winner in 3 of the last 14 years. So it would appear that sometimes races in June do have Derby implications and these horses are not too fragile.

Earlier in the thread people implied that it was ridiculous to think about the derby in June because Derby winners never debut so early. It does happen.

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I was just pointing out that debuting in June at five furlongs has led to a derby winner in 3 of the last 14 years. So it would appear that sometimes races in June do have Derby implications and these horses are not too fragile.

Earlier in the thread people implied that it was ridiculous to think about the derby in June because Derby winners never debut so early. It does happen.

I read that and disagree too, but I think these 2yr old races in June often mean nothing because speed is just so important in them. The other problem with them in there is no way of really determining what they are beating. I don't think you can tell anything from a 2yr old other than they may be good horses. These horses grow so much over the winter and some even in the 6-8 weeks before the derby that they are often completely different animals. The sport is so odd now with people paying 16 million for Forestry colts that they are making the breed into a bunch of animals that are designed to run real quick early and break down. These horses that start this soon seem to have really short 3yr old careers.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Hoisttheflag

I read that and disagree too, but I think these 2yr old races in June often mean nothing because speed is just so important in them. The other problem with them in there is no way of really determining what they are beating. I don't think you can tell anything from a 2yr old other than they may be good horses. These horses grow so much over the winter and some even in the 6-8 weeks before the derby that they are often completely different animals. The sport is so odd now with people paying 16 million for Forestry colts that they are making the breed into a bunch of animals that are designed to run real quick early and break down. These horses that start this soon seem to have really short 3yr old careers.

I agree but would add that often 2YO races mean nothing in other months as well. Thats the whole point. Most of the 2YO races are meaningless relative to the Derby. But somewhere along the way during the next six months there will be a debut by next years derby winner. It's fun to try to be one of the sharpies that noticed him right away and picked it out as a horse with loads of talent.

Remember there are less than eleven months remaining to get it right! LOL.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I agree but would add that often 2YO races mean nothing in other months as well. Thats the whole point. Most of the 2YO races are meaningless relative to the Derby. But somewhere along the way during the next six months there will be a debut by next years derby winner. It's fun to try to be one of the sharpies that noticed him right away and picked it out as a horse with loads of talent.

Remember there are less than eleven months remaining to get it right! LOL.

I agree with you ArlJim. Out of all the Thoroughbreds born every year, only about 20 of them even make it to the Derby. Just 20.

That is why, for me, it is not just the two year olds that go on to win the Derby that I am looking. It is also those that make impacts in big stakes races later on as well.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by Hoisttheflag

It sounds like they are talking about this horse that won today and the odds are against him even making the derby. Some really nice horses to come out of those 2yr old stake races at Saratoga but can't recall any ever winning the derby. Afleet Alex did win the Hopeful, but not the derby.

I think these two year olds should just race when they are ready, but should have some time between races. You have to remember though that the key is to just give them foundation and they need races to get it. I have always thought 3 races as a 2yr old and 3 races as a 3yr old prior to the derby are what they need.

The odds are against every two year old making it to the Derby. So is the nature of the game.

I don't really care that Afleet Alex didn't win the Derby. He won two of the three legs, and was only a length short in the Derby. I was more so making a point to earlier threads than to yours anyway. Someone said that horses that started early couldn't go 10 furlongs, and Afleet Alex definitely proved that wrong. He was the first horse I thought of off the top of my head.

You do make some really good points in your posts.

[zippyneedsawin]

Man, what a bunch of bickering. Whatever. I saw Circular Quay's race.. AWESOME.. Definately a 2yo to watch this summer... and maybe beyond ( How dare I say that!? )

[Togacapper]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Lemme tell you what, I'll put my vision up gansit anyone's. You call ragozin and ask him what the top 4 figs are for 2Yo's this year, and i gurantee its these 4 horses. They are all incredible. The one today was frightening. Thats the kind of debut that gets people plotting a derby course in June of his 2yo year. Thast how good he was. WHy don't you watch teh replay and crunch the numbers and get back to me on that one with a mea culpa.

Oracle your classic dude..Good post

[SentToStud]

Many of the people on this post deriding this colt's effort as well as generalizing that early 2yo sprints are simply just speedfests obviously did not see the race. Coming into the race off just two very modest reported works, this colt broke last and really just loped his way to within 2-3 lengths of the leaders at the 1/4 pole. When the straightend out and he changed leads, he ran tremendously quick for about 1/8 of a mile. Beajarano had him wrapped up the final 100-150 yards and he still finished up in very quick timeHe was obviously ready to run and run well. Whether or not he makes noise next spring is really not important, at least to me, since so many things can happen between now and then. I also think that Pletcher is probably a very good judge of what's best for his horse and I cannot imagine he'd run this colt -- or any horse for that matter -- too soon or too often. I just really enjoyed seeing an obviously talented 2yo win off so impressively easy and look forward to seeing him again against tougher competition.

[Thunder Gulch]

Another Thunder Gulch Baby..more where that came from

Originally Posted by SentToStud

Many of the people on this post deriding this colt's effort as well as generalizing that early 2yo sprints are simply just speedfests obviously did not see the race. Coming into the race off just two very modest reported works, this colt broke last and really just loped his way to within 2-3 lengths of the leaders at the 1/4 pole. When the straightend out and he changed leads, he ran tremendously quick for about 1/8 of a mile. Beajarano had him wrapped up the final 100-150 yards and he still finished up in very quick timeHe was obviously ready to run and run well. Whether or not he makes noise next spring is really not important, at least to me, since so many things can happen between now and then. I also think that Pletcher is probably a very good judge of what's best for his horse and I cannot imagine he'd run this colt -- or any horse for that matter -- too soon or too often. I just really enjoyed seeing an obviously talented 2yo win off so impressively easy and look forward to seeing him again against tougher competition.

Stud. upon reading Picking Winners by Andy beyer back in my young teens in the 80's I immediately embraced the concept of watching races and taking trip and bias notes. What Beyer said just clicked with me. The concept that not all the things that happen in a trip can be posted in a little running line seemed to make sense to me. Therefore the people I respect most in this game are folks like yourself who also watch races before they comment on anything. It became really clear to me once again that most people here don't watch races and comment on things that they haven't even seen, which to be is incredulous. I would no sooner comment on the performance of a pitcher in a baseball game that I didn't watch than I would on a nuclear physics equation.
The point yesterday wasn't what he will do 11 months from now, the point was that anyone who watches races and understands internal fractions had to be like you and I were, amazed. I've been watching races hardcore for 20 years and That debut was in the top three I ever saw. Personal Ensign's debut will never be topped in my mind, I knew that first start that she was agonna be the greatest filly I would ever see. I wish they had that race on archives someplace but i remember it like it was yesterday. That debut was the kind that just make you feel like you could be watching a very serious potential star.
I'm usually the guy bashing horses at age two after big debuts because they usually fall into one of twoi categories, horses who close late running down fast fractions who really don't wanna stretch out but have given the false impression that they do because they "closed" into a :26 last quarter(which isn't really a close so much as it is the horse in front of them stopped) or horses who go in 21 and change and 44 and change. I mean those kind NEVER stretch out and I mean NEVER. Simply because horses that fast never do. But this debut was didnt fall into either category. Though he was back in the field the fractions were hot enough to mean that hes got enough speed to stay close(and will be closer the longer they go) yet the way he powered home while switching leads very late show me that he WILL stretch. Watch where he switches leads, two strides after that he was just gone. The final 3'16ths went in 17:3 and since he closed he got right around 17 flat, or a shade underneath which meant his kick home was INCREDIBLE and since the final time itself was so fast it makes that last 3/16th's just astonishing. I didn't see a debut like that last year by anyone, heck I don't know when the last time was that i saw a debut like that.

[Gander]

What a pointless thread this has become. Pletcher has 4 great 2 year olds and Oracle ooohed and awwed about them, so what? I didnt see any of them run but I take his word that they are very good and probably will dominate the summer's 2 year old season.

What the hell does winning the 2007 KY Derby have to do with anything? Who cares? Its June 2006.

And why does Pletcher having amazing 2 year olds come as a surprise to anyone? People been living in caves for the last 5 years? He does this every summer. The guy trainds a million horses, some of which he personally has not even seen. Of course hes going to have the stock, everybody wants him to train their horses.

Originally Posted by Gander

What a pointless thread this has become. Pletcher has 4 great 2 year olds and Oracle ooohed and awwed about them, so what? I didnt see any of them run but I take his word that they are very good and probably will dominate the summer's 2 year old season.

What the hell does winning the 2007 KY Derby have to do with anything? Who cares? Its June 2006.

And why does Pletcher having amazing 2 year olds come as a surprise to anyone? People been living in caves for the last 5 years? He does this every summer. The guy trainds a million horses, some of which he personally has not even seen. Of course hes going to have the stock, everybody wants him to train their horses.

Tim hes never had two year old stars like these. Name the best two yeard old he ever had? Hes never won a two year old championship and hes never won the BC juvenile in either division. He always has runners yes, but its more like a lot of very good ones, not horses like these who look downright scary. I don't ooh and ahh over much Tim. I'm ususally real conservative about who I ooh and ahh over. But my eye is pretty good. Maybe you don't remember last year but I know several others here do(over on the old site we used to post on) that i was the first guy to start raving about Barbaro after his debut at Delaware because I bet him and saw the race. I'd say that was a pretty good ooh and ahh. It takes a lot to make me ooh and ahhh, and that horse is something really special.

Keep in mind that Darley has about 40 2YOs that they are close to unveiling in New York with trainers like McLaughlin, Harty, Bin Suroor and Albertrani.....You would have to guess that the average worth of each one of their babies is several hundred thousand....watch out!

[Exceller]

Originally Posted by Gander

What a pointless thread this has become. Pletcher has 4 great 2 year olds and Oracle ooohed and awwed about them, so what? I didnt see any of them run but I take his word that they are very good and probably will dominate the summer's 2 year old season.

What the hell does winning the 2007 KY Derby have to do with anything? Who cares? Its June 2006.

And why does Pletcher having amazing 2 year olds come as a surprise to anyone? People been living in caves for the last 5 years? He does this every summer. The guy trainds a million horses, some of which he personally has not even seen. Of course hes going to have the stock, everybody wants him to train their horses.

Got to agree with this post. Pletcher always has good 2yr olds and one or two will make it to the derby. So what. For all we know next years derby winner could still be on a farm somewhere.

[Exceller]

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

Keep in mind that Darley has about 40 2YOs that they are close to unveiling in New York with trainers like McLaughlin, Harty, Bin Suroor and Albertrani.....You would have to guess that the average worth of each one of their babies is several hundred thousand....watch out!

You and the Arabs.

[Gander]

Nothing wrong with oooing and awwing Oracle, I applaud your enthusiasm. I know your eye is good. You always had an eye on Bubbles and Piggy. LOL!