4/11 (KEE): Blue Grass; Jenny Wiley; Commonweath; Shakertown

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The very idea that Charitable Man is even running in this race, given the situation, seems absurd to me. Let's see, a 2YO that was able to run two races before getting injured, and hasn't run in seven months, is now being asked to go 1 1/8 miles....with his eye on a 20 horse field at 1 1/4 miles in three weeks. Go baby go.

Doug O'Neill was quoted as saying this is a very stupid plan.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by nomad

1 Patena no chance
2 Join in the Dance dangerous speed a user
3 Theregoesjojo on the decline
4 Cliffys Future can't run with these
5 Mafaaz unknown factor, a lot to ask
6 Terrain too slow
7 Loch Dubin no
8 General Quarters not impossible but see #3
9 Charitable Man too much to ask
10 Hold me Back could be tough, Desormeax sticks with him
11 Massone the winner with Gomez

Prediction 11-10-3-2

I'm glad we got this settled.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Doug O'Neill was quoted as saying this is a very stupid plan.

So was running Great Hunter in so many synthetic races but we all have our shortcomings.

However, I do think this is a terrible idea. Really, he may end up being a good horse but this exhibit A of what not to do with a promising yet fragile 3YO.

NT

[Kasept]

Just noticed while capping this card that the 2008 winners from all three supporting stakes are back to try to defend their titles... Pretty cool considering the constant yammering about 'lack of stars' etc. I've said regularly that the 'stars' are there and easy to appreciate if some marketing entity would laud them.

Five year old '08 Shakertown hero Mr. Nightlinger is 19/9-1-4 ($500k) and won 4 stakes last year for likable Bret Calhoun. 6yo Rebellion (21/7-4-4; $740k) never seemed to reach the apex Motion sought with him last year, but he did win the Commonwealth and Ack Ack and place in the Pat O'Brien and BC Synthetic Mile. Finally, enigmatic Rutherienne (17/9-0-6; $921,555) promptly ran third in 6 straight graded stakes last year after homering in her '08 debut in the Jenny Wiley.

Aren't there people out there that are fans of these horses after 19, 21 and 17 starts respectively? Or do 3yo colts have to be the only stars in the game?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Just noticed while capping this card that the 2008 winners from all three supporting stakes are back to try to defend their titles... Pretty cool considering the constant yammering about 'lack of stars' etc. I've said regularly that the 'stars' are there and easy to appreciate if some marketing entity would laud them.

Five year old '08 Shakertown hero Mr. Nightlinger is 19/9-1-4 ($500k) and won 4 stakes last year for likable Bret Calhoun. 6yo Rebellion (21/7-4-4; $740k) never seemed to reach the apex Motion sought with him last year, but he did win the Commonwealth and Ack Ack and place in the Pat O'Brien and BC Synthetic Mile. Finally, enigmatic Rutherienne (17/9-0-6; $921,555) promptly ran third in 6 straight graded stakes last year after homering in her '08 debut in the Jenny Wiley.

Aren't there people out there that are fans of these horses after 19, 21 and 17 starts respectively? Or do 3yo colts have to be the only stars in the game?

I don't know anything about Bret Calhoun but I definitely am a fan of Mr. Nightlinger.

As stated above, it's hard not to get excited for the return of the F&M Turf champ and her truly awesome late kick for the very likeable Sheppard (who could have a monster week- 1 grade 1 down already)!

[tiznowthegreat]

I have been a big fun of Mr. Nightlinger. Can't understand why the same connections entered Chamberlain Bridge though. It looks like they could hurt each other on the front end.

[tiznowthegreat]

A question about Keeneland for those familiar regarding the multiple finish lines. How can you tell in the program which finish line each particular race finishes at? Also, has the first finsish line played strongly to speed types in the past with the shorter stretch?

[Handicappy]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Just noticed while capping this card that the 2008 winners from all three supporting stakes are back to try to defend their titles... Pretty cool considering the constant yammering about 'lack of stars' etc. I've said regularly that the 'stars' are there and easy to appreciate if some marketing entity would laud them.

Five year old '08 Shakertown hero Mr. Nightlinger is 19/9-1-4 ($500k) and won 4 stakes last year for likable Bret Calhoun. 6yo Rebellion (21/7-4-4; $740k) never seemed to reach the apex Motion sought with him last year, but he did win the Commonwealth and Ack Ack and place in the Pat O'Brien and BC Synthetic Mile. Finally, enigmatic Rutherienne (17/9-0-6; $921,555) promptly ran third in 6 straight graded stakes last year after homering in her '08 debut in the Jenny Wiley.

Aren't there people out there that are fans of these horses after 19, 21 and 17 starts respectively? Or do 3yo colts have to be the only stars in the game?

Not all of us are yammering Steve. We're out here! The sport is facing many challenges, liked your piece on Mullins and Matt H's piece in DRF, but these athlete's inspire me with their heart and conviction. Being a relatively new handicapper compared to folks here, being a fan does make handicapping a more complex process in as much as it can effect my objectivity. But, being a relatively new capper, being a fan is far more satisfying on a regular basis. Good point.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Aren't there people out there that are fans of these horses after 19, 21 and 17 starts respectively? Or do 3yo colts have to be the only stars in the game?

I only care about 3YO races.

Now, if you don't mind, I have a handicapping challenge to attend to on Thoroughbredchampions.

[slotdirt]

Always a Motion fan here, and Rebellion is a fun horse in these synthetic sprints.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Now, if you don't mind, I have a handicapping challenge to attend to on Thoroughbredchampions.

Is it one of those list your Top 5 Derby Horses contests?

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

So was running Great Hunter in so many synthetic races but we all have our shortcomings.

However, I do think this is a terrible idea. Really, he may end up being a good horse but this exhibit A of what not to do with a promising yet fragile 3YO.

NT

I don't think it takes an experienced horseman to give pause to what Kirian is doing with Charitable Man. But without being in the barn with the horse the past few months, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and assume he'll only move forward to the derby if the horse really proves himself.
A safer route would probably be going to the Derby Trial at a mile, and then pointing for the Peter Pan, but he contends this is one special and talented colt, so we'll see.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Is it one of those list your Top 5 Derby Horses contests?

We can only hope

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Or do 3yo colts have to be the only stars in the game?

I guess it boils down to how you define the term "stars"

The last few years have been awful throughout almost every division in terms of horses with elite talent.

I don't blame anyone who wants to be excited about the 3yo's from this crop - and yet are not impressed at all with the older horses we've seen this year.

I think you have to go all the way back to 2001 to find a 3-year-old male crop that was unarguably better than this current one at this time of the year.

You also have a 3-year-old filly in Rachel Alexandra who's recent form going into the Kentucky Oaks is as impressive as any 3yo filly since Sillverbulletday ten years ago.

[Handicappy]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Doug O'Neill was quoted as saying this is a very stupid plan.

Gee, haven't heard his name in awhile. Is he still training?

[Handicappy]

Originally Posted by nomad

1 Patena no chance
2 Join in the Dance dangerous speed a user
3 Theregoesjojo on the decline
4 Cliffys Future can't run with these
5 Mafaaz unknown factor, a lot to ask
6 Terrain too slow
7 Loch Dubin no
8 General Quarters not impossible but see #3
9 Charitable Man too much to ask
10 Hold me Back could be tough, Desormeax sticks with him
11 Massone the winner with Gomez

Prediction 11-10-3-2

Now if only logic worked in this process, you'd have it nailed. I am only laughing at the number of times I've capped a race and had some of the same conclusions and the whole race blows up in my face. I'll be fun to watch.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

I don't think it takes an experienced horseman to give pause to what Kirian is doing with Charitable Man. But without being in the barn with the horse the past few months, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and assume he'll only move forward to the derby if the horse really proves himself.
A safer route would probably be going to the Derby Trial at a mile, and then pointing for the Peter Pan, but he contends this is one special and talented colt, so we'll see.

i liked hold me back the other day-but chose others over him due only to the layoff. of course we all know he won.

not really any hard and fast rules on this anymore. you'd think a horse would need more bottom, but so many horses come into the derby without much foundation, you have to wonder how much of a knock it is to only run a couple of times in the spring.

now, the 10f is still grueling-but is the competition any more?

then again, way back when regret became the first filly to win the derby. it was also her first start of the year. not sure how many are aware of that.

[booner]

Originally Posted by tiznowthegreat

A question about Keeneland for those familiar regarding the multiple finish lines. How can you tell in the program which finish line each particular race finishes at? Also, has the first finsish line played strongly to speed types in the past with the shorter stretch?

I have only seen the races that are 1 1/16 on the main finish at the alternate finish line. All other races finish at the main finish line near the end of the stretch.

Frontrunners really haven't benefitted from the short stretch. Anytime I've seen a frontrunner win was because of some kind of track bias or was the lone leader.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Just noticed while capping this card that the 2008 winners from all three supporting stakes are back to try to defend their titles... Pretty cool considering the constant yammering about 'lack of stars' etc. I've said regularly that the 'stars' are there and easy to appreciate if some marketing entity would laud them.

Five year old '08 Shakertown hero Mr. Nightlinger is 19/9-1-4 ($500k) and won 4 stakes last year for likable Bret Calhoun. 6yo Rebellion (21/7-4-4; $740k) never seemed to reach the apex Motion sought with him last year, but he did win the Commonwealth and Ack Ack and place in the Pat O'Brien and BC Synthetic Mile. Finally, enigmatic Rutherienne (17/9-0-6; $921,555) promptly ran third in 6 straight graded stakes last year after homering in her '08 debut in the Jenny Wiley.

Aren't there people out there that are fans of these horses after 19, 21 and 17 starts respectively? Or do 3yo colts have to be the only stars in the game?

After reading your opening paragraph and then reading the rest, I get the feeling that your are saying Mr. Nightlinger, Rebellion, and Rutherienne are all stars. Good horses, sure. But stars? Really. No doubt it's good to have good horses that aren't quickly sent off to the farm and that do continue to race but I think it's a reach to say they are stars.

It's extremely hard to market horses in today's climate. When horses used to run more often, it was easier. But imagine if you were SA last week and had been marketing the matchup of The Pamplemousse vs. Pioneerof the Nile. How did that work out? What if you are Churchill and you want to market the matchup of Rachel vs. Stardom Bound in the Oaks? IEAH hasn't even committed SB to the race yet so you can't. Curlin vs. Big Brown was hyped a little before the BC but then Big Brown didn't go. Couple of years ago, St. Liam vs. Rock Hard Ten but then that didn't happen. Monmouth marketed the return of Afleet Alex in the Haskell. There are countless examples that show why it's too hard to market these horses now.

Go to the track, take a look around,
think about how many people you see,
especially during a weekday, are thinking about
older horses that are really accomplished.

They dont care. This sport attracts a whole
lot of people that are looking for juice and
nothing else. They are addicted gamblers.

The beauty of watching great athletes means
nothing to them. The game has and always will
attract these types, which is why there has
always been a tainted view of racing by the
general public.
Add a Mullins incident, the jock that jumped
off in England, Cobra venom...

On topic: Why should I think Terrain has a decent
chance in the Blue Grass? Please explain why he is
a throwout.