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  #1  
Old 05-03-2019, 08:24 PM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
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Exclamation Live Derby Odds

LIVE DERBY ODDS
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  #2  
Old 05-03-2019, 08:34 PM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
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1. War of Will (Casse/Gaffalione) 18-1
2. Tax (Gargan/Alvarado) 38-1
3. By My Standards (Calhoun/G. Saez) 14-1
4. Gray Magician (Miller/Van Dyke) 28-1
5. Improbable (Baffert/I. Ortiz) 5-1

6. Vekoma (Weaver/Castellano) 22-1
7. Maximum Security (Ja. Servis/L. Saez) 9-2
8. Tacitus (Mott/J. Ortiz) 5-1
9. Plus Que Parfait (Walsh/R. Santana) 50-1
10. Cutting Humor (Pletcher/Smith) 21-1

13. Code of Honor (McGaughey/Velazquez) 13-1
14. Win Win Win (Trombetta/Pimental) 15-1
15. Master Fencer (Tsunoda/Leparoux) 49-1
16. Game Winner (Baffert/Rosario) 6-1
17. Roadster (Baffert/Geroux) 9-1

18. Long Range Toddy (Asmussen/Court) 44-1
19. Spinoff (Pletcher/M. Franco) 53-1
20. Country House (Mott/Prat) 70-1
21. Bodexpress (Delgado/Landeros) 99-1
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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Old 05-04-2019, 06:00 AM
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Dunbar Dunbar is offline
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With $1 million in the win pool, Maximum Security is still a narrow favorite over Improbable and Tacitus. From the Oaks/Derby will-pays and the current exacta will pays, with $720K in the exacta pool, it looks like Improbable will emerge as the Derby favorite, followed by Tacitus and Maximum Security. If so, then the ML favorite, Game Winner, would actually be 4th in the betting.
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  #4  
Old 05-04-2019, 06:43 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dunbar View Post
With $1 million in the win pool, Maximum Security is still a narrow favorite over Improbable and Tacitus. From the Oaks/Derby will-pays and the current exacta will pays, with $720K in the exacta pool, it looks like Improbable will emerge as the Derby favorite, followed by Tacitus and Maximum Security. If so, then the ML favorite, Game Winner, would actually be 4th in the betting.
With Serengeti Empress winning, can we fully rely on the double will pays to predict the derby odds?
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Old 05-04-2019, 07:27 AM
freddymo freddymo is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by moses View Post
With Serengeti Empress winning, can we fully rely on the double will pays to predict the derby odds?
Follow Marshall Gramm on twitter, not only is he brilliant, he is an outstanding player/owner and is King of Impunned Odds.
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  #6  
Old 05-04-2019, 07:49 AM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by freddymo View Post
King of Impunned Odds.
Ah, Freddy. So much here..

First, it's impugned..

But unfortunately, that's not the word you wanted.

Which was imputed.

Pitch till you win!
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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  #7  
Old 05-04-2019, 07:51 AM
freddymo freddymo is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept View Post
Ah, Freddy. So much here..

First, it's impugned..

But unfortunately, that's not the word you wanted.

Which was imputed.

Pitch till you win!
Whatever, Grammarly is flawed not me
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  #8  
Old 05-04-2019, 07:59 AM
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Dunbar Dunbar is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by moses View Post
With Serengeti Empress winning, can we fully rely on the double will pays to predict the derby odds?
It's true that there's more room for noise with a long shot having won the Oaks, but there's a lot of data in the exacta pool, and it's pretty convincing that Game Winner will not be in the top 2 in the win pool. It looks close between GW and Max Security for the 3rd fav position.

If you compare exacta payoffs of the 4 of them, here's how often each of them has the lowest payoff when in the 1st position of the exacta: (indicating, most favored)

Imp: 9
Tac: 4
GW: 4
MS: 2

And here's how often each of them had the highest payoff, indicating least favored:

Tac: 0
Imp: 2
MS: 8
GW: 9

Having looked at it more closely, it does look like GW will edge out MS for 3rd favorite.
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar
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  #9  
Old 05-04-2019, 08:02 AM
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moses moses is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dunbar View Post
It's true that there's more room for noise with a long shot having won the Oaks, but there's a lot of data in the exacta pool, and it's pretty convincing that Game Winner will not be in the top 2 in the win pool. It looks close between GW and Max Security for the 3rd fav position.

If you compare exacta payoffs of the 4 of them, here's how often each of them has the lowest payoff when in the 1st position of the exacta: (indicating, most favored)

Imp: 9
Tac: 4
GW: 4
MS: 2

And here's how often each of them had the highest payoff, indicating least favored:

Tac: 0
Imp: 2
MS: 8
GW: 9

Having looked at it more closely, it does look like GW will edge out MS for 3rd favorite.
Good stuff. That all makes sense.
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  #10  
Old 05-04-2019, 08:03 AM
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moses moses is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by freddymo View Post
Follow Marshall Gramm on twitter, not only is he brilliant, he is an outstanding player/owner and is King of Impunned Odds.
I got rid of twitter. Might have to pick it back up. A lot of horse racing stuff is on there.
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  #11  
Old 05-04-2019, 09:07 AM
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Dunbar Dunbar is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by moses View Post
Good stuff. That all makes sense.
Thanks.

You can use a horse's exacta odds to construct the equivalent of a win bet. The odds you get that way will usually be lower than that horse's actual win odds because of the bigger takeout in the exact pool. But doing it that way, I get these odds for those 4 horses:

Imp: 3.9-1
Tac: 4.5-1
GW: 4.6-1
MS: 5.1-1

So, looking at it that way, GW looks closer to Tacitus than I thought.
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar
photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
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