Another hidden turf sire angle

Scav · #1 10-28-2006, 12:58 PM

While GPK and I argue about who 'touted' Lemon Drop Kid as a hidden turf sire, I have two others to throw out that I have scored on recently.

Sweetsouthernsaint - (especially first time routing on turf)

Exchange Rate - By Danzig and won most of his races on the dirt

These are two that are fairly 'quiet' angles that people haven't caught onto late. Most LDK's present no value on the lawn anymore but these two you will see some value.....

Pointg5 · #2 10-28-2006, 01:01 PM

Do you have any numbers to actually back any of this up?

Sometimes perception does not equate to reality...

paisjpq · #3 10-28-2006, 01:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pointg5

Do you have any numbers to actually back any of this up?

Sometimes perception does not equate to reality...

ahhh but by the time you have enough numbers to prove it everyone already knows and then you don't get the big prices...like with LDK

#4 10-28-2006, 01:10 PM

Its really quite easy to pick out hidden turf stallions. Lauren Stich does a series every year on the freshman stallions and lists who she thinks will be hidden values on turf. All it takes is a basic grasp of pedigree knowledge.

The real attention should be given to who's get is doing the best on poly. Would love to see those numbers...

Scav · #5 10-28-2006, 01:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pointg5

Do you have any numbers to actually back any of this up?

Sometimes perception does not equate to reality...

Just saying from what I have noticed those two horses have scored at non-favorite odds, I have caught a $30 horse today and a $18 horse a week ago on those two sires on the turf.

Sweetsouthernsaint's progeny is almost an auto-play for me 1st time routing

Scav · #6 10-28-2006, 01:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Balletto

Its really quite easy to pick out hidden turf stallions. Lauren Stich does a series every year on the freshman stallions and lists who she thinks will be hidden values on turf. All it takes is a basic grasp of pedigree knowledge.

The real attention should be given to who's get is doing the best on poly. Would love to see those numbers...

Stop raining on my parade.....

#7 10-28-2006, 01:13 PM

Is one person walking with a curious sway really considered a parade?

Pointg5 · #8 10-28-2006, 01:18 PM

So you and GPK thought you came up with some handicapping angle by saying the LDK's were running great on turf? I guess I wouldn't really be surprised that a horse sired by Kingmambo would sire horses that ran well on grass. Even someone like me who cares almost nothing about pedigree could have told you that, it's not that surprising...

brianwspencer · #9 10-28-2006, 01:19 PM

My two cents on my favorite "hidden" turf sire....

Unreal Zeal. Perhaps it's because he's not overly successful -- but my goodness, when his horses go first time on turf they are almost always wildly overlooked. And one more than one occasion I've cashed BIG win tickets on his horses. Some of them have the most dramatic turnaround on the turf. I've seen them go from three MSW races finishing up the track by more than a dozen lengths on the dirt, then pop first time on the turf at HUGE prices.

And other times, they are still terrible. It's a crapshoot, but one that's been good to me -- I'm always on the lookout for Unreal Zeal's trying turf first time.

Scav · #10 10-28-2006, 01:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pointg5

So you and GPK thought you came up with some handicapping angle by saying the LDK's were running great on turf? I guess I wouldn't really be surprised that a horse sired by Kingmambo would sire horses that ran well on grass. Even someone like me who cares almost nothing about pedigree could have told you that, it's not that surprising...

And I have told Balleto, GPK and others that 100 times. I understand that was an easy one, what is your point?

Pointg5 · #11 10-28-2006, 01:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Balletto

Its really quite easy to pick out hidden turf stallions. Lauren Stich does a series every year on the freshman stallions and lists who she thinks will be hidden values on turf. All it takes is a basic grasp of pedigree knowledge.

The real attention should be given to who's get is doing the best on poly. Would love to see those numbers...

Bingo...I could tell you that LDK might sire some turf runners...

It's basic knowledge and a little luck if it's 1st timers, there's really no skill involved in handicapping msw's turf or non-turf, unless you are someone like Rupert or others that we have here and have seen the horses train to see how they are moving. I don't mind admitting that, because I have had some of my biggest hits with msw's, but it's nothing more than looking at the pedigree, the trainer stats, worktabs and a little luck, unless you have seen them train...

#12 10-28-2006, 01:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

And I have told Balleto, GPK and others that 100 times. I understand that was an easy one, what is your point?

And he's still trying to "inform" us all... Give us a few more... enlighten us! Just ribbing Tom. I have a few more if you want me to share.

brianwspencer · #13 10-28-2006, 01:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pointg5

Bingo...I could tell you that LDK might sire some turf runners...

It's basic knowledge and a little luck if it's 1st timers, there's really no skill involved in handicapping msw's turf or non-turf, unless you are someone like Rupert or others that we have here and have seen the horses train to see how they are moving. I don't mind admitting that, because I have had some of my biggest hits with msw's, but it's nothing more than looking at the pedigree, the trainer stats, worktabs and a little luck, unless you have seen them train...

more or less you just described handicapping in general -- studying the information given and making the most rational decision based on that information. i would argue that handicapping msw's takes a fair amount of skill -- if you don't understand the pedigree then it's useless to look at the pedigree, so understanding that and the trainer angles is skillwork if you ask me.

Scav · #14 10-28-2006, 01:35 PM

Empire Maker will be the nuts 1st time routing on the turf.......

Pointg5 · #15 10-28-2006, 01:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

more or less you just described handicapping in general -- studying the information given and making the most rational decision based on that information. i would argue that handicapping msw's takes a fair amount of skill -- if you don't understand the pedigree then it's useless to look at the pedigree, so understanding that and the trainer angles is skillwork if you ask me.

Not really, I could look and see a horse trained by Steve Asmussen and sired by Gone West will probably be precocious and ready to roll...It's not that hard if it's a 1st timer. Pedigree is not that difficult, most with a basic knowledge like myself could spot precocius sires and they print the trainers stats at the bottom of the page. If they have had a race that's when you can see the trip the horse had, other than that if it's a 1st timer and you have never seen the horse, it's luck and I don't kid myself otherwise...

Scav · #16 10-28-2006, 01:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pointg5

Not really, I could look and see a horse trained by Steve Asmussen and sired by Gone West will probably be precocious and ready to roll...It's not that hard if it's a 1st timer. Pedigree is not that difficult, most with a basic knowledge like myself could spot precocius sires and they print the trainers stats at the bottom of the page. If they have had a race that's when you can see the trip the horse had, other than that if it's a 1st timer and you have never seen the horse, it's luck and I don't kid myself otherwise...

You can see a 1st timer in the post parade and see what he is about, I just watch their head, you can tell if a horse is focused or not....

#17 10-28-2006, 01:39 PM

Here are 10 Kentucky stallions that are considered by most, predominantly dirt stallions. But when their offspring are let loose on the turf for the first time, there's often good money to be had. You should also pay special attention to any Storm Cat or Gone West line first timer.

Belong to Me
Forest Wildcat
Langfuhr
Military
More Than Ready
Pulpit
Sky Classic
Smart Strike
Storm Boot
Stormin Fever

Pointg5 · #18 10-28-2006, 01:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

You can see a 1st timer in the post parade and see what he is about, I just watch their head, you can tell if a horse is focused or not....

Lol! Don't kid yourself...

#19 10-28-2006, 01:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

Empire Maker will be the nuts 1st time routing on the turf.......

Hmm, there's a chance. From what I saw, they looked more "Unbridled" than El Gran Senor. They looked very "dirt".

Pointg5 · #20 10-28-2006, 01:42 PM

I think Came Home will be a good sire, never really cared much for him as a race horse, but I think he will be a good sire, not exactly breakthrough stuff, seeing as he is by Gone West...I like Zito's horse in the BCJ...