September 5 CD Kentucky Derby ROI Wagers go here

[DonGuido]

Oaks/Derby Double $50

1,5w/17

[DonGuido]

Originally Posted by DonGuido

Oaks/Derby Double $50

1,5w/17

Well there goes a quick $100. Perhaps this sets up Tiz for an upset at Churchill. We'll just see now won't we. I hope he wins but I'm gonna bet against him

[cal828]

Not much change in the advanced wagering except Tiz now up to a lofty 6/5. Kind of making my future wagers look better and better. Course, I've never cashed a future wager before except on Smarty Jones and that was only at 5-1 so no great return.

[JolyB]

Race 10:
$0.50 Pick 5
3,7,8,10 // 3,4 // 8,9,10 / 1,3,6,8 / 16,17 [$192]

Good luck to all and thank you to Real Quiet for scoring.

[cal828]

Originally Posted by JolyB

Race 10:
$0.50 Pick 5
3,7,8,10 // 3,4 // 8,9,10 / 1,3,6,8 / 1,17 [$192]

Good luck to all and thank you to Real Quiet for scoring.

Joly, I think with Finnick out there is no "1" is there in race 14?

[JolyB]

Originally Posted by cal828

Joly, I think with Finnick out there is no "1" is there in race 14?

Thank you very much Cal. Too much time looking at the computer screen. I meant to type "16", not "1"

[cal828]

No problem. I get more than a little addled after awhile and often get so confused I can't even make my picks until just before the race goes off. Thankfully, I've pretty much decided how I'm going to bet, but still don't know whether to bet the Derby or leave it alone. I see that you are avoiding the vertical plays. Probably a smart thing to do.

[DonGuido]

Well since I got beat down playing the Oaks/Derby Double here's my $100, errr I mean $96 wagers.

Race 8; $4 Pick 4
4,5/2,6,9/7,10/4

Race 11: $4 Pick 4
4,6/8,9/1,3,4/17

[DonGuido]

Originally Posted by cal828

No problem. I get more than a little addled after awhile and often get so confused I can't even make my picks until just before the race goes off. Thankfully, I've pretty much decided how I'm going to bet, but still don't know whether to bet the Derby or leave it alone. I see that you are avoiding the vertical plays. Probably a smart thing to do.

I'm leaving it alone but keying on Tiz in a pick 4.

[cruzan200246]

R7. 3 Casino Star $50 Win
R10. 11 Notary $50 Win
R11. 8 Belle Laura $50 Place
R14. 7 Money Moves $50 Win

[cal828]

R7 $2 Win on #5 Tank Commander

R9

$5 exacta box 2,5,6,9=$60

$3 tri 9//2,5,6//2,5,6=$18

$3 tri 2,5,6//9//2,5,6,=$18

R14

$1 tri 17//2,3,7,8,12,13,15,16,18//2,3,7,8,12,13,15,16,18=$72

$1 tri 17//2,8,12,15,16,18//2,8,12,15,16,18=$30

[Indian Hemp]

race 8

$20 Win

1

race 9

$20 Win

9


race 14


$100 Win

16

50 cent tri $60

10 16 17/ 10 13 16 17 18 / 2 3 4 5 7 8 10 12 13 16 17 18

thanks RQ & good luck all

[DonGuido]

Closed

[cal828]

The GOAT strikes again!! RQ may have the score of the year.

[Real Quiet]

Could have if I caught the second place horse in race 10

[cal828]

Originally Posted by Real Quiet

Could have if I caught the second place horse in race 10

Yeah, I noticed you had the longshot winner in a race. I guess that's what you call a bad beat, but you more than made up for it. Congrats. Very well done. Ironclad rule of racing should be, you just can't think that Baffert or Chad Brown are not going to win any race they have a runner in. Especially the big ones.

[DonGuido]

Originally Posted by JolyB

I've also got my doubts about both of the Bafferts and don't know what to do with them. For actual wagers, I am avoiding both the win and exacta pools, since I don't see value for the horses I like in either of them. I am trying to put together a trifecta array and think it could be profitable even though it will have a lot of Tiz on top and a little in the second slot "just in case". I can see a scenario on the latter ticket where Thousand Words could be on top [same could be said for Honor AP], but I am against Authentic in the win slot. My perception of the Haskell was that he was at the end of his distance limits to get the 1 1/8 and I don't see him getting the extra distance, especially if someone else decides to contest what will probably be a faster pace. If he beats me, well I've been wrong before and will be again. So, I'll be using Authentic underneath, as well as Max and NY at least in the bottom rung. I'm struggling to find another in whom I have any strong feelings about passing tired horses and ending up in the third slot. Once you get beyond the top tier, so many of the rest of these look very much alike.

Isn't this fun?

Well, it's not wise to overlook Baffert in any big race, just like not messing with Mother Nature. Who'd a thunk it except that Johnny V rode Authentic perfectly to win and for some reason Tiz lost his winning kick. That's one of Cruz's criteria . . . HOF Jockey/Trainer combo, not sure about the back speed. On a personal note, this is the worst day of picking and wagering I've had in the past 20 yrs of being on these forum contests. Need a long freshening. Resting up for the Breeders Cup.

[JolyB]

Originally Posted by DonGuido

Well, it's not wise to overlook Baffert in any big race, just like not messing with Mother Nature. Who'd a thunk it except that Johnny V rode Authentic perfectly to win and for some reason Tiz lost his winning kick. That's one of Cruz's criteria . . . HOF Jockey/Trainer combo, not sure about the back speed. On a personal note, this is the worst day of picking and wagering I've had in the past 20 yrs of being on these forum contests. Need a long freshening. Resting up for the Breeders Cup.

Nothing more humiliating than reading my analysis one day later and seeing how wrong, Wrong, WRONG I was. So much for distance limitations of Authentic.

John V. was masterful and rationed out his speed the way a Hall of Famer can. The fractions were fairly healthy, so it's not as if he put everyone else to sleep -- he just rode only as fast as he needed to and had more than needed when the time came.

When Tiz came almost alongside at the quarter pole, I was thinking - here we go, only it went precisely the other way. So much for "expert" analysis.

Don, like you, I could use a freshening.

Happy Labor Day everyone.

ps - where did Mr. Big News come from - did anyone think he would finish that well? quite a performance on his part.

[cal828]

Originally Posted by cal828

^^^
I have my doubts about both Bafferts, but as we all know, that can be hazardous to your wallet.

Too bad I can't follow my own advice a little better. A somewhat fun and at least distracting day, if not very profitable. I made a couple of dollars on the Bellafina/Serengeti Empress thing, but gave it all back and few more on the Derby, but all in all not hurt too bad. I've certainly done a lot worse on Derby Day. Like you Don, I'm ready to move on the BC.

[cal828]

^^^
On Mr. Big News, in the waning moments before the race went off, I made an exacta and a tri with him with Enforceable and Tiz as well as a Win/Place on him. My reasoning was those 3 seemed to have the best breeding according to those little numbers on the Brisnet PPs. On DRF, they call them Tomlinson numbers. But it was all for naught. As for his PPs, I really didn't like them. His last win at Oaklawn was on a sloppy track so I thought he might be a wet track specialist. Inside post didn't help Enforceable, but there are always exceptions to every rule. I can remember just a couple of years ago, one of those deep closer types that ran 2nd from the one post with an almost perfect trip skimming the rail.