2/18-20 (CD): Kentucky Derby Future Wager (Pool 1)

[Soaring Softly]

Back in 2003 I laid $20 on Funny Cide in the first pool. He was the second-longest shot in the field at 93/1. I know this is a major redboard, but I swear to god it's the truth. Funny Cide won the Derby at 12/1 odds, and I cashed my future bet for $1800!

I got hooked with that...obviously. Since Funny Cide, I've come up empty with my future wagers. The closest I've gotten since then was a future on Closing Argument in 2005.....finished 2nd at 70/1. I think my future on him was something like 40/1....whatever.

This year, I laid $20 on the other Pletcher/Repole horse, Stay Thirsty at 40/1, and I also laid $10 on Jaycito at 20/1...just because he's Baffert. For the record, I also bought $10 on Indian Winter at 71/1....scratched out of the San Vicente today....yuck!

The fact is that this future pool is fun! You always have to wait until the last 15 minutes or so because it's pari-mutuel, but if you can't get to 'Vegas to get your fixed odds bet down, this is the next best thing.

I would put $1 on Gourmet Dinner at 1000/1

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

I would put $1 on Gourmet Dinner at 1000/1

He's looking more like Chik-fil-A.

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

He's looking more like Chik-fil-A.

That's high grade fast food in some parts. And lets face it these horses ain't eatin' good. All it takes is the right chemist, trainer change, jockey switch. It's not like he got destroyed and they're all in love with the winner.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Fly Delta!

[iamthelurker]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

He's looking more like Chik-fil-A.

Live on that stuff.

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

It's a bet like any other horse bet. You have info, and you look at the info to see if there's a bet that is an overlay. It has the same takeout as any other Churchill bet.

With any horse bet, in addition to the track take you're up against inside information. I don't know if the amount of inside info is greater with the Future Wager or not. If you think it is greater, then that's one good reason to stay away from the future wager. Otherwise, it's a bet like any other bet.* I happen to think it has offered some monster edges in the past.

--Dunbar

* But where else do you get people betting on horses when they could have waited a few hours to make the same bet, but could have watched the horse actually run a race in the meantime?! I like betting against that kind of bettor.

yeah, you make a point. but to me betting on some horse 3 months ahead of time at 3-1 when hes probably going to be not much lower than that anyway(if he even runs). same with the field at 1-1............really 1-1 , whats the objective?....throw your money on the floor or risk it for 3 months at even money or do people just want to say "i cashed in the future pool". thats where the money is so my question is "who bets that?" frankly if you are betting anything under 30-1, you are nuts. a friend of mine loved giacomo....he bet him in the futures............the horse started losing and paid more on derby day.....3 months later and live....yeah, thats a great bet....

[Kasept]

FINAL POOL ONE ODDS

1 Anthony's Cross Eoin Harty 30 45
2 Astrology Steven Asmussen 30 48
3 Brethren Todd Pletcher 15 15
4 Clubhouse Ride Craig Lewis 50 99
5 Comma to the Top Peter Miller 20 90
6 Decisive Moment Juan Arias 50 99

7 Dialed In Nicholas Zito 10 8
8 Gourmet Dinner Steven Standridge 30 85
9 Indian Winter Jerry Hollendorfer 50 71
10 J P's Gusto David Hofmans 20 79
11 Jaycito Bob Baffert 20 21
12 Machen Neil Howard 30 49

13 Mucho Macho Man Katherine Ritvo 30 30
14 Rogue Romance Kenneth McPeek 30 34
15 Santiva Eddie Kenneally 30 37
16 Silver Medallion Steven Asmussen 20 66
17 Soldat Kiaran McLaughlin 20 18
18 Stay Thirsty Todd Pletcher 30 40

19 Sweet Ducky Kelly Breen 50 79
20 The Factor Bob Baffert 20 25
21 Tiz Blessed Chad Brown 30 79
22 To Honor and Serve William Mott 10 10
23 Uncle Mo Todd Pletcher 9/2 7-2
24 All Other Three Ye 5/2 2

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

yeah, you make a point. but to me betting on some horse 3 months ahead of time at 3-1 when hes probably going to be not much lower than that anyway(if he even runs). same with the field at 1-1............really 1-1 , whats the objective?....throw your money on the floor or risk it for 3 months at even money or do people just want to say "i cashed in the future pool". thats where the money is so my question is "who bets that?" frankly if you are betting anything under 30-1, you are nuts. a friend of mine loved giacomo....he bet him in the futures............the horse started losing and paid more on derby day.....3 months later and live....yeah, thats a great bet....

If you think 3-1 (which turned out to be 7-2) on Uncle Mo is ridiculously low, then that implies that some other horse is probably an overlay. This is a routine handicapping event--an overbet favorite. Take advantage of it.

I would agree with you about the Field bet if it were indeed 1-1. But it was 2.10-1. Furthermore, if you constructed a win bet from bets in the exacta pool, you could have gotten 3.6-1 to win on the Field. I think 3.6-1 is a humongous overlay, and I don't mind in the least sitting on it 2.5 months.

--Dunbar

[Scav]

I just thought of something and I wish I would have tried this, could you have boxed 'All Others / All others' in the exacta?

If you can't, what happens to the exacta future wager if it comes up All Others / All Others?

[dylbert]

I saw Santiva live Saturday and was swayed enough to place $2 future wager. My over-the-top play is Santiva over Sweet Ducky exacta!

If both should occur, this post will get a much deserved "bump" on May 7!

[ranger5830]

Originally Posted by Scav

I just thought of something and I wish I would have tried this, could you have boxed 'All Others / All others' in the exacta?

If you can't, what happens to the exacta future wager if it comes up All Others / All Others?

From the Kentucky Derby Future Wager rules:



1.3. All runners in the Mutuel Field of the "Futures Exacta" shall be treated as a "Coupled Entry" for the purposes of determining winning tickets and payouts. (In the event multiple Mutuel Field runners finish in positions affecting the determination of winning tickets and payouts, the calculation of the $2 payout will be conducted in a manner consistent with the approved method for "Coupled Entries" as contained in KHRC rules and/or the laws of the Commonwealth of Kentucky. By way of example, with #24 representing the Mutuel Field/All Others, a finish of 1/24/24/24/3 would result in an exacta payout to holders of a 1/24 ticket; a finish of 24/24/24/9 would result in an exacta payout to holders of a 24/9 ticket.)

[Scav]

Originally Posted by ranger5830

From the Kentucky Derby Future Wager rules:



1.3. All runners in the Mutuel Field of the "Futures Exacta" shall be treated as a "Coupled Entry" for the purposes of determining winning tickets and payouts. (In the event multiple Mutuel Field runners finish in positions affecting the determination of winning tickets and payouts, the calculation of the $2 payout will be conducted in a manner consistent with the approved method for "Coupled Entries" as contained in KHRC rules and/or the laws of the Commonwealth of Kentucky. By way of example, with #24 representing the Mutuel Field/All Others, a finish of 1/24/24/24/3 would result in an exacta payout to holders of a 1/24 ticket; a finish of 24/24/24/9 would result in an exacta payout to holders of a 24/9 ticket.)

Thanks Ranger, that is awesome...

[HaloWishingwell]

I took a small shot with Clubhouse Ride(127-1) to win and exacta bets with the major contenders. My major bet is on Stay Thirsty(40-1) to win and exacta bets with the major contenders back and forth

[Gate Dancer]

I couldn't resist putting $20 on Brethren, even if his odds are probably too low. I like his running style and he has a win at CD. If he continues to progress, he will be lower than that on Derby Day. It's a shot I realize but kinda fun to have something to follow.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by HaloWishingwell

I took a small shot with Clubhouse Ride(127-1) to win and exacta bets with the major contenders. My major bet is on Stay Thirsty(40-1) to win and exacta bets with the major contenders back and forth

Ouch

[HaloWishingwell]

Funny how every year this crap of injury news comes out on Monday right after the betting future is over.

[clyde]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

If you think 3-1 (which turned out to be 7-2) on Uncle Mo is ridiculously low, then that implies that some other horse is probably an overlay. This is a routine handicapping event--an overbet favorite. Take advantage of it.

I would agree with you about the Field bet if it were indeed 1-1. But it was 2.10-1. Furthermore, if you constructed a win bet from bets in the exacta pool, you could have gotten 3.6-1 to win on the Field. I think 3.6-1 is a humongous overlay, and I don't mind in the least sitting on it 2.5 months.

--Dunbar

You can put it right next to your eggs...kill many birds with one fat dupa.

[Rileyoriley]

Originally Posted by HaloWishingwell

I took a small shot with Clubhouse Ride(127-1) to win and exacta bets with the major contenders. My major bet is on Stay Thirsty(40-1) to win and exacta bets with the major contenders back and forth

I like Stay Thirsty too. I put a small win bet on him, Astrology. and To Honor and Serve.

[HaloWishingwell]

Originally Posted by Rileyoriley

I like Stay Thirsty too. I put a small win bet on him, Astrology. and To Honor and Serve.

Obviously this is an important week. Pletcher apparently says that he is not totally cranked.