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  #201  
Old 04-24-2019, 11:19 AM
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Originally Posted by Dahoss View Post
I probably would. I still think heís the best 3 year old and neither of his starts this year have discouraged that thought. I think Baffert had a plan to have him peak for the Derby and even though Roadster beat him in the SA Derby, he was 4 wide for a long time and made first move, while Roadster drafted and made the last move. Heís won over the Churchill surface and while I hope youíre right that he drifts up in price, 6-1 seems fair.
Agree, and I also would.
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  #202  
Old 04-24-2019, 12:05 PM
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Originally Posted by Dahoss View Post
I probably would. I still think heís the best 3 year old and neither of his starts this year have discouraged that thought. I think Baffert had a plan to have him peak for the Derby and even though Roadster beat him in the SA Derby, he was 4 wide for a long time and made first move, while Roadster drafted and made the last move. Heís won over the Churchill surface and while I hope youíre right that he drifts up in price, 6-1 seems fair.
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Originally Posted by cakes44 View Post
Agreed. I'm on him at 6-1, so i'm definitely on him at anything higher.
I like Game Winner and think he is the most likely of the horses to hit the board. But to win? As consistent as heís been, he hasnít taken that next step...yet. I also suspect the California horses are a little overrated this year.

Plus, we saw his odds rise to 7-1 in Pool 4, and that was before Omaha Beach won the Arkansas Derby. So I think we see his odds end up above 6-1.
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  #203  
Old 04-24-2019, 02:59 PM
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Originally Posted by Kasept View Post
Country House to Prat; Anothertwistafate will await Preakness..
Steve - Iíve seen a few times on HRN where it says Mott hasnít decided on a jockey for Country House. Are they just way behind you or is Country House still riderless?
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  #204  
Old 04-24-2019, 03:40 PM
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Steve - Iíve seen a few times on HRN where it says Mott hasnít decided on a jockey for Country House. Are they just way behind you or is Country House still riderless?

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  #205  
Old 04-24-2019, 04:27 PM
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I know. I shouldnít doubt you.
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  #206  
Old 04-25-2019, 07:26 AM
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Originally Posted by Dahoss View Post
Yeah I bet they were afraid heíd nose them out for 15th.
Nice to see you back on DT.
I have always respected your opinions.
Good luck yo you!
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  #207  
Old 04-26-2019, 09:37 AM
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Originally Posted by knickslions2 View Post
I think Roadster is by far the best of the Baffert 3. I dont think the other ones have any chance to be honest. Omaha Beach has run well last two races but Roadster seems to have a huge upside. Tough decision for Mike Smith.
Iím starting to come around on Roadster. But Iím still having a heck of a time figuring out this race.
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  #208  
Old 04-26-2019, 10:16 AM
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Iím starting to come around on Roadster. But Iím still having a heck of a time figuring out this race.
The draw will help
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  #209  
Old 04-30-2019, 07:52 AM
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Corey Lanerie gets on Cutting Humor..
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  #210  
Old 04-30-2019, 10:07 AM
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Looking a little bit into horses with 4 or fewer starts. Just looked into the last 10 years but was interested to see the the trainers for those horses. If I went back 11 years, the numbers would actually look better for lightly raced horses since Big Brown and Denis of Cork both finished in the money in 2008.

Pletcher: 9 starts, 1 finish in Top 5 (Danza in 2014)
Baffert: 4 starts, 2 finishes in Top 5 (Justify in 2018, Bodemeister in 2012)
Brown: 2 starts, 0 finishes in Top 5 (My Man Sam finished 11th, Shagaf DNF in 2016)
Motion: 1 start, 1 Winner (Animal Kingdom in 2011)
Hollendorfer: 1 start, 1 finish in Top 5 (Battle of Midway in 2017)
Sharp: 1 start, 0 finishes in Top 5 (Girvin finished 13th in 2017)
Mott: 1 start, 0 finishes in Top 5 (Hofburg finished 7th in 2018)
Zito: 1 start, 0 finishes in Top 5 (Dialed In finished 8th in 2011)
Ice: 1 start, 0 finishes in Top 5 (Summer Bird finished 17th in 2009)

For Pletcher, Noble Indy finished 17th, Magnum Moon 19th, Patch 14th, Outwork 14th, Materiality 6th, Itsaknockout 9th, Verrazano 14th, Dunkirk 15th. Baffertís other horses in that time frame were Chitu who finished 9th in 2014 and Midnight Interlude, 16th in 2011.

Anyway, for trainers not named Pletcher, theyíve got a record of 12-2-1-1, which is 17% win, 33% ITM. All-time, Baffert has a Derby record of 28-5-3-3, which is 18% win, 39% ITM.

I guess my thought is - is the fact that a horse has 4 or fewer starts really that big of a negative for them? Itís not exactly fair to just throw out Pletcherís starters but he also sends a lot of lightly raced horses to the derby and heís clearly skewing the numbers in recent years.
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  #211  
Old 05-02-2019, 10:25 AM
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Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind View Post
He was 23rd on the list. He was never getting in anyway.
Shoulda stuck around.
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  #212  
Old 05-02-2019, 12:17 PM
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Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes View Post
Shoulda stuck around.
I still like Anothertwistafate but his performance in the Lexington shows me that he was not going to be ready for the Derby. Hopefully he benefits from coming back a little bit fresher in 3 weeks.
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  #213  
Old 05-05-2019, 02:37 PM
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So the "real" winner is bypassing?
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  #214  
Old 05-05-2019, 03:27 PM
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Curious to see how the morning line plays out here!
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  #215  
Old 05-05-2019, 03:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept View Post
5/18 (PIM): PREAKNESS STAKES

1. Country House (Mott/Prat)
2. War of Will (Casse/Gaffalione)
3. Code of Honor (Shug/McGaughey)
4. Laughing Fox (Asmussen/Vasquez)
5. Mr. Money (Calhoun/G. Saez)
6. Anothertwistafate (Wright/TBA)
7. Owendale (Cox/Geroux)
8. Alwaysmining (Rubley/Centeno)
9. Signalman (McPeek/B. Hernandez)
Hell, Alwaysmining has as good a shot as any of those.
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  #216  
Old 05-05-2019, 03:48 PM
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I was just thinking about this - Flavien Prat decided to get off Omaha Beach earlier this year and was replaced with Mike Smith. I felt bad for him when Omaha Beach ended up running so well after he had switched horses. I can’t even remember who he chose over Omaha Beach. Was it Galilean? Anyway, he was one of the last jockeys to get a ride in the derby, obviously picking up Country House.

The two jockeys who rode Country House prior to Prat - Joel Rosario and Luis Saez - both ended up on two of the top horses and at least arguably cost their horses the win (Rosario going too wide, Saez with the foul).
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  #217  
Old 05-05-2019, 03:51 PM
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Looks like a good betting race. I expect Mr. Money will get some attention, even with the 92 Beyer.
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  #218  
Old 05-06-2019, 02:32 PM
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Improbable a yes for Preakness; Smith rides..
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  #219  
Old 05-06-2019, 02:52 PM
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Okay now we are talkin'.
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  #220  
Old 05-06-2019, 03:52 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept View Post
Improbable a yes for Preakness; Smith rides..
Improbable/Owendale exacta
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