Two at Toga (2023)

[jms62]

Originally Posted by moses

Not sure how much I’ll be on the next few days so going to post now. Going for gold here.

Wednesday.

First bet: Race 7 - #6 Golden Rocket, 5/1. I’m very much against the morning line favorites in this race. And while that may prove to be foolish, I prefer to go with the class in this race, who I expect to be a nice price just based on the connections of Farro/Gomez. I’m even intrigued by ex-Clement trainee Classic Colors who I really love a couple years ago but who toiled away in dirt races in Charles Town for the first half of this year. Good to see her back on turf and she’s under Russell now with Franco aboard (3-3 ITM for Franco/Russell) so wouldn’t be shocked to see her win this either.

Second bet: Race 3 - #4 Golden Dagger, 8/1. This horse had a bad start in her debut, was wide throughout, and was just the best horse in that race. The runner up moved up to MSW where she ran 2nd in her next outing and broke her maiden in her 3rd race. I’m not sure why she was sent to the bench after her maiden win but Morey hits at 23% 90+ days away. Morey not a great 1st time turfer but dam has produced 4 turf winners to date. Ability to come from off the pace could be key here as there are several in here that seem to want the front.

Nice job with Golden Dagger.... Unfortunately that Dagger was thrust into my heart as you blew up my 7/2 double.

[moses]

Originally Posted by jms62

Nice job with Golden Dagger.... Unfortunately that Dagger was thrust into my heart as you blew up my 7/2 double.

Thanks and sorry about that.Actually like this horse Bertrille a little bit in the 6th.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by moses

Thanks and sorry about that.Actually like this horse Bertrille a little bit in the 6th.

Already on em....

[moses]

Originally Posted by jms62

Already on em....

If I’m not first, I’m last.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Well, should have stuck with the original picks as Nakatomi won. Joey Freshwater ran 2nd to collect $3.80.

$32.00 wagered
$70.10 returned

Golden Dagger ran a heck of a race. I was right to go against the ML favorites in race 7…but Golden Rocket was not good enough (maybe half credit for Classic Colors though?)

$40.00 wagered
$87.20 returned.

Preliminary Thursday picks.

Race 4 - #6 Greatest Love, 15/1
Race 6 - #8 Neom Beach 5/1

[theguarantee]

Classic Colors ran great, just missing. Gun Boat once again failed to finish up in the lane.

Wagered: $40.00
Returned: $73.70

Best Bet: Race 9 - #10 Chasing the Crown 9/2 - I originally wanted to get creative with some longshots in this race but the more I looked through it I just kept coming back to this one. Has been facing some serious competition and I think unless Ari Gold really jumps forward is the most likely winner at a price that should be OK

Best Value: Race 6 - #4 Lamorna 8/1 - Struggled coming up with much on this card so taking a bit of a stab here. I like the works and maybe this one will be overbet given the breeding but everything Bill Mott sends out right now seems live and there are plenty of others in here to take money based on connections in such that I'll take a stab at a square price.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Golden Dagger ran a heck of a race. I was right to go against the ML favorites in race 7…but Golden Rocket was not good enough (maybe half credit for Classic Colors though?)

$40.00 wagered
$87.20 returned.

Preliminary Thursday picks.

Race 4 - #6 Greatest Love, 15/1
Race 6 - #8 Neom Beach 5/1

Sticking with the two picks above. Am I crazy for picking a Chatterpaul horse? Maybe. But the horse is in good form, should have a pace advantage, and is going to be a huge price. Sign me up.

For my second pick, I was between Neom Beach and Catire Vizcaya in race 2…I’m playing Neom Beach on a hunch that Rosario is starting to get out of his slump and that Asmussen has been giving him some good horses lately. Plus the pedigree feels like this distance and surface fits. But if the 6 wins race 2, I’ll be frustrated.

[theguarantee]

^Agreed on Rosario. I think he's quietly riding very well at the meet so far. Good luck today.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Sticking with the two picks above. Am I crazy for picking a Chatterpaul horse? Maybe. But the horse is in good form, should have a pace advantage, and is going to be a huge price. Sign me up.

For my second pick, I was between Neom Beach and Catire Vizcaya in race 2…I’m playing Neom Beach on a hunch that Rosario is starting to get out of his slump and that Asmussen has been giving him some good horses lately. Plus the pedigree feels like this distance and surface fits. But if the 6 wins race 2, I’ll be frustrated.

Well I read the pace of Race 4 completely wrong. Never backing a Chatterpaul horse again. (Actually, I didn’t realize the horse finished 3rd as I gave up halfway through the race.)

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

^Agreed on Rosario. I think he's quietly riding very well at the meet so far. Good luck today.

Good luck to you too!

[moses]

$48.00 wagered
$87.20 returned

Friday picks.

First bet: Race 8 - #2 Speed Bias, 3/1. I like this horse a lot and think 3/1 is a fair price on him. We’ll see if that holds. It will likely rain but doesn’t look like a wet track will bother him.

Second bet: Race 7 - #2 Big Night Out, 6/1. I thought this horse just never looked comfortable in his debut. Appears to have some talent and took some money last time out. Pedigree suggests he won’t mind a wet track.

Sidenote: There are too many Chads in the Lake George though #5 Revalita and newcomer #2 Surge capacity intrigue me most from his barn. Of the non-Chads, also intrigued by #10 Secret Money.

[jms62]

I lose another one like the 6th I may need a new monitor

[theguarantee]

Pinched for time today.

Best Value Race 8 #5 Constitutionlawyer 8/1
Best Bet Race 5 #13 Sin Nombre 9/2

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

$48.00 wagered
$87.20 returned

Friday picks.

First bet: Race 8 - #2 Speed Bias, 3/1. I like this horse a lot and think 3/1 is a fair price on him. We’ll see if that holds. It will likely rain but doesn’t look like a wet track will bother him.

Second bet: Race 7 - #2 Big Night Out, 6/1. I thought this horse just never looked comfortable in his debut. Appears to have some talent and took some money last time out. Pedigree suggests he won’t mind a wet track.

Sidenote: There are too many Chads in the Lake George though #5 Revalita and newcomer #2 Surge capacity intrigue me most from his barn. Of the non-Chads, also intrigued by #10 Secret Money.

Speed Bias grabbed 2nd for $4.80. Big Night Out ran ok but finished something like 4th or 5th.

$56.00 wagered
$92.00 returned

Saturday. I don’t love this card. Preliminary picks:

First bet: Race 1 - #4 Noble Wave, 5/1

Second bet: Race 2 - #5 Ice Road, 4/1

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Speed Bias grabbed 2nd for $4.80. Big Night Out ran ok but finished something like 4th or 5th.

$56.00 wagered
$92.00 returned

Saturday. I don’t love this card. Preliminary picks:

First bet: Race 1 - #4 Noble Wave, 5/1

Second bet: Race 2 - #5 Ice Road, 4/1

Ice Road is scratched.

Second bet is now #1 Southlawn (9/2) in Race 9.

I also looked at the card a little more and do like a potential bomb so I'm going to scrap Noble Wave as well.

First bet is now #2 Daily Grind (15/1) in race 7.

Some comments.

I think everyone will notice the price tag on Daily Grind, who sold for $1.35 million. Dam was a graded stakes winner who broke her maiden at 2 and Medaglia D'oro has sired his fair share of horses to win at 2. I don't know what the plan was for this horse but he was training at Churchill, had a bullet workout in July 5th and got shipped to Saratoga. I'm guessing Lukas was happy with it and thinks he's ready. A few of the horses in here look pretty good but I think this one is worth a shot at 15/1.

With Hoosier Philly scratching out, I think Southlawn will get a little bit easier of a pace [not sure the Shirer horse can really press her and remains to be seen if Sacred Wish will jump into the mix early (though curious about that turf workout on July 7th.)] Wet Paint and Gambling Girl aren't fast enough to take the lead here. Workouts have been very good. So I think she'll inherit a fairly easy pace and think she's good enough to hold on. And with Brad Cox and Todd Pletcher having the two likely favorites, she should fly a bit under the radar and be a solid price.

Good luck all.

[theguarantee]

Race 10) #9 A La Carte
Race 11) #8 Digital Future

[moses]

Well, Daily Grind wasn’t very good. Southlawn stumbled out of the gate and was basically finished as soon as the race started. Ah well. On to tomorrow.

[moses]

$64.00 wagered.
$92.00 returned.

Let’s hope for a good day today.

First bet: Race 3 - #2 Fontanafredda, 5/1.
Second bet: Race 6 - #4 Colonial Rose, 8/1.

[maryhope]

Anybody know what is Steve's depaula play of day 🤔

[moses]

Originally Posted by maryhope

Anybody know what is Steve's depaula play of day 🤔

I’m not sure but you should play along today with my picks. I feel pretty good about them.